About time... They might be able to reduce R0 < 1 and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks. On the other hand, Spain and Germany are going to blow up next week, Italy-style.
Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
61–70 of 165 posts
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#62Something that I heard from an epidemiologist the other day is how shutting down schools and daycares can be incredibly counterproductive, because such a high percentage of health care workers have children which suddenly are at home and need to be supervised, pulling these workers out of their duties. I suppose its ok early on, but seems problematic if enough people eventually get infected. Understood that schools a…
I saw the Joe Rogan clip[1] and I agree that Michael Osterholm's analysis of this seems correct when it comes to the United States.
Denmark however has a completely different structure socially. All private sector employees who can work from home are urged to work from home. All public sector employees who are not working in any matter-of-life-and-death function are forced to stay at home. The public sector employees will still get paid despite not working. Practically this means very, very few cases of health care workers with children needs to be home supervising the children.
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#63It will be interesting to see how these things / if they help. The scale of impact and longevity of these shutdowns could be dramatic. Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things. Is there really a lot of good data to know, this will do a thing?
> Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things.
Nope, not in Denmark: if they're needed then they are exempt.
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#64It's my understanding that the UK's reserved response so far is because a 'shut down' is not sustainable for a long time, and we feel that it's not the right time to start yet.
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
At this point more than enough data exists to show the population will not be decimated.
At this point more than enough data exists to show the population will suffer ~1% losses. We shouldn't need 10% to freak out. Not to mention long-tail fatalities that might arise if it becomes an annual virus like the flu. When all that had to happen was people treat it seriously to begin with rather than saying "But the flu is way worse".
Maybe, or maybe not. Let’s say it’s 0.5% fatal and largely only to folks who are older and have comorbid conditions. Instead we panic 100% of people, leading to mass hysteria, loss of livelihood, global recession, military zombie apocalypse lockdowns and so on. What if our response causes more harm? It might well.
Proportionality of response matters and so do second and third order effects. What if all the above causes more than 5000 suicides? Did we win?
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is what lethal ignorance looks like.
0.5% lethal according to the latest stats — or 99.5% non-lethal for you optimists out there.
These are iniatives to spare the old and the weak. How little regard do you have for these people? Their mortality rate is way higher than 0.5%
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are businesses being provided lines of credit or other funding sources to continue paying employees while their income might decline in the short term? Or are they able/expected to pay out of cash reserves or existing business credit lines?
There are no immediate promises of such measures being made. Edit: Since this is being downvoted could someone provide a source for such immediate promises? I must have missed it.
There are, they just aren't specific yet. The important part is the shut down, then they have time to work on the package
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are businesses being provided lines of credit or other funding sources to continue paying employees while their income might decline in the short term? Or are they able/expected to pay out of cash reserves or existing business credit lines?
Tax and VAT payments can be deferred
And if goods aren't flowing there really isn't VAT incurred for that time is there?
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#69Something that I heard from an epidemiologist the other day is how shutting down schools and daycares can be incredibly counterproductive, because such a high percentage of health care workers have children which suddenly are at home and need to be supervised, pulling these workers out of their duties. I suppose its ok early on, but seems problematic if enough people eventually get infected. Understood that schools a…
I saw the Joe Rogan clip[1] and I agree that Michael Osterholm's analysis of this seems correct when it comes to the United States. Denmark however has a completely different structure socially. All private sector employees who can work from home are urged to work from home. All public sector employees who are not working in any matter-of-life-and-death function are forced to stay at home. The public sector employees…
Wait, how would this prevent health care workers with children from needing to be home? Who is going to be watching those kids while the parents are working at a hospital?
Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
#70Something that I heard from an epidemiologist the other day is how shutting down schools and daycares can be incredibly counterproductive, because such a high percentage of health care workers have children which suddenly are at home and need to be supervised, pulling these workers out of their duties. I suppose its ok early on, but seems problematic if enough people eventually get infected. Understood that schools a…
> Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors.
Are they? There seems to be limited transmission from children (to other children or even adults), in part because they generally aren't getting symptomatic when exposed.
via https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...:
. "For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa."
I don't deny kids can transmit it to other kids, just that the odds are low. In fact, the only school I could find that was a cluster (Suyeong-gu Kindergarten in Korea) was 5 infected adults, 1 infected kid, and 160 negatives (which I assume were dominated by children).
Does anyone know of school clusters that have emerged?