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Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

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Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#61

Post by whatshisface »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #47
jessriedel wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, people are instructed to self-quarantine merely for being exposed to an infected person. The large majority of those people are not expected to eventually test positive.

From my perspective, if (whoever is in charge) was really in the business of providing accurate numbers, they would test a statistical sample of these 2,300 people to estimate what percentage of them actually have the virus.

There are R0 and transmission probability estimates out there. If you sniff around I think you might find the study you're asking for. As usual, media outlets are not scientific, so if you want proactive understanding (as opposed to reactive reporting) you will need to follow the literature yourself. Too bad there is no news service for that.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#62

Post by thrownblown »

whatshisface wrote: post #61
alexandercrohde wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my perspective, if (whoever is in charge) was really in the business of providing accurate numbers, they would test a statistical sample of these 2,300 people to estimate what percentage of them actually have the virus.

There are R0 and transmission probability estimates out there. If you sniff around I think you might find the study you're asking for. As usual, media outlets are not scientific, so if you want proactive understanding (as opposed to reactive reporting) you will need to follow the literature yourself. Too bad there is no news service for that.

i smell a market opportunity

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#63

Post by cousin_it »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #26
Svip wrote: post #16

I wish they also separated European countries by subnational jurisdiction. In the US they do it by cities, surely they should be able to separate Italian provinces, French departments and German states. They are reported like that in the news. I mention this because it's particularly northern Italy that's hard hit, not southern Italy. I am still planning on travelling to southern France (by car!) around Easter, and I…

> I also think travelling by car is a safer option, both for me and others around me. I thought about it because I'll need to drive a long drive in two days (across France). I'm taking throwaway gloves with me... Inside the car I'll be fine (and people outside the car too) but... A gas station has to be one of the riskiest place to catch the virus because you are forced to touch the gas pump. And that's the same for…

Not throwaway gloves. Carry a pack of disinfecting wipes. Whenever you're about to touch a public surface (gas pump, handrail, door handle, elevator button, touchscreen...) wipe it first. That way you protect yourself, protect the people who come after you, your hands get disinfected many times a day, and anyone who sees you will pick up the idea.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#64

Post by wiredfool »

plopz wrote: post #10

I really dislike these maps that use circles. The circles overlap, are hard to reason about spatially and the size seems to be an arbitrary scale without meaning.

The thing that drives my OCD nuts is that in Europe, all of the circles are centered the centroid of the country, except Germany.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#65

Post by Alupis »

DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu.

So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerned about that).

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#66

Post by panarky »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

And the CDC itself says there are only 99 confirmed cases.

What a shitshow.

As of 3/6/2020 8:22 am PT: https://imgur.com/a/D0ICvoP

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#67

Post by DennisP »

Alupis wrote: post #65
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

That's what I mean by the "mild cases that are never diagnosed."

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#68

Post by [deleted] »

thrownblown wrote: post #62
whatshisface wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are R0 and transmission probability estimates out there. If you sniff around I think you might find the study you're asking for. As usual, media outlets are not scientific, so if you want proactive understanding (as opposed to reactive reporting) you will need to follow the literature yourself. Too bad there is no news service for that.

i smell a market opportunity

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#70

Post by usrusr »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #47
jessriedel wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, people are instructed to self-quarantine merely for being exposed to an infected person. The large majority of those people are not expected to eventually test positive.

From my perspective, if (whoever is in charge) was really in the business of providing accurate numbers, they would test a statistical sample of these 2,300 people to estimate what percentage of them actually have the virus.

Here in Germany a little known tidbit is that the routine sampling system that is already in place to observe influenza has started to check for SARS-CoV-2 as well. It's only a sampling of people sick enough to visit a doctor (not whole population random sampling), but at least this sampling is not limited to people with a known infection path which would completely blindside you to community spread. I don't think that this has been running for long enough to already have meaningful results, but it will eventually put an end to flying blind. Given the value of discovering undiscovered clusters and getting better statistics I think that this is a much much better allocation of testing resources than checking the most likely candidates whom you'd want to quarantine anyways due to the likelihood of false negatives during incubation.

A very similar test allocation might also be running in America without anyone but a few experts taking notice. Here in Germany it has technically been on the news but it was completely drowned out by the pointless shouting match between "it cannot be worse than a cold" (because it would interfere with my precious vacation plans) and "our healthcare wouldbe just as overwhelmed as in Wuhan" (because, I don't know, maybe I'm just not racist enough to assume that it will somehow only be bad in China)

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