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Coronavirus Real Time Map

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Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#61

Post by turk73 »

The problem is that is the data we are receiving correct? I mean, China could be lying, the US Govt. could be lying, too. Governments lie--they lie about little things and they lie about big things.

If an asteroid was going to hit Earth, would governments tell us the truth about that? No, because they would not want to "incite panic" and lose control over their power.

So in a low-trust world, can you really trust anything a government tells you at all? No. Clearly not. That doesn't mean "panic" it just means, they don't have your interests at heart at all.

Also, with China, they would just as soon throw the dead in mass graves and shut up about it as doing anything else.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#63

Post by majewsky »

hanklazard wrote: post #58
dahfizz wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.

Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses (metapneumovirus, paraflu, influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, etc, etc ... and many of these have multiple subtypes which can be concurrently circulating). In other words, you’re noticing common symptoms not necessarily the same virus.

> Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses

And not just that. I have a septum deviation, so I basically have a runny nose all winter long, even though, most of the time, no viruses are involved.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#64

Post by davedx »

koheripbal wrote: post #33
m12k wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.

It's 3-4 orders of magnitude more deadly than the normal seasonal flu. The mortality rate is similar to SARS, but with far more infections. The above comment saying that it "mostly" impacts elderly is a bit vague. The fact that within the first 100 deaths were multiple young healthy people means it is dangerous for the entire population. People in their 30s and 40s are not "old".

> It's 3-4 orders of magnitude more deadly than the normal seasonal flu

Citation?

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#66

Post by akmarinov »

ohitsdom wrote: post #26
akmarinov wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

> even if half the people get infected You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't this be on the extreme side?

Could be, yeah. The issue is that India is right next door and if it goes there, that's another 1.4 billion to worry about.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#67

Post by bangboombang »

seren wrote: post #16

Given the distribution in China, it looks like it is not going to be contained in Wuhan, even with a quarantine.

Yeah. I mean as a Plague, Inc. player I have to give kudos to this virus. Having the outbreak shortly before the spring festival is genius, the travel ban for Wuhan came so late that many people already traveled to all over the country to meet their families, greatly helping the spread.

I'm staying inside for now...

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#68

Post by clort »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #50
kscriby wrote: post #41

For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/

Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.

Um.. I had to enable scripts from jsdelivr.net to get past a blank screen?

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#69

Post by IAmGraydon »

kavalg wrote: post #40
lysp wrote: post #35

Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…

From what I've read so far, it seems that hosts can infect healthy people 1-2 weeks before first symptoms. Something missing though is how long after the infection does the host become active in spreading the virus.

China has stated that they think it can be contagious before symptoms. The US has stated as of yesterday (Jan 27) that there is no evidence for that yet.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#70

Post by thinkingemote »

molteanu wrote: post #37

@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason. Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?

Users do the flagging
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