Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? • Hacker News Board

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#61

Post by glofish » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:28 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #52

glofish wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that if you are 10 ft above water you'll be fine in Florida even when areas under 10ft flood? I really doubt that. It is not about actually losing your home, it is about quality of life, the main reason for moving there in the first place. There will be a big cost of any flooding, borne by all Floridians

Yes, and Florida real estate market fundamentals as well as the mortgage bond market and property insurance support my thesis. I specifically paid for sea level rise models before buying Florida real estate, and will likely sell before I die and sea level rise has meaningfully occurred. I-4 and I-75 will be untouched, and other infra is already designed around the Florida environment (hurricanes, high water table). S…

I am curious to see how this works out long term.

There is a lot of alarmism, but mostly where alarmism also sells copies.

There is wisdom in crowds, no question about that - we would be foolish to ignore that. Lots of people move to Florida.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#62

Post by magduf » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

freehunter wrote: post #7

yboris wrote: post #2

Would be great if their charts were showing % rather than absolute numbers (or at least would show % in addition to absolute numbers). It shouldn't be too surprising: California and New York are in top 5 by population size. ps - their use of "hemorrhaging" to describe movement of people feels inappropriate.

“Hemorrhaging” is a pretty common way to describe an exodus of people or money. It’s a common metaphor that’s also used in “stop the bleeding” or the similar “stem the tide”. Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation but…

>Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation

I'm sorry, I don't see the problem. It's a completely apt metaphor for people buying into group-think, with disastrous results. The Jonestown tragedy is a perfect example of what happens when people don't question what they're told, and we should never forget it.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#63

Post by harimau777 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #55

Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs (except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that wants to take my guns"). We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in large part beca…

Did the laws have protections for the current home owners?

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that people would want to protect themselves if they don't have any assurances that developers won't just build ugly tower blocks.

On the other hand, if people are opposing development that involves real architects developing aesthetically pleasing designs that respect the existing community, then it seems reasonable to me to criticize NIMBYism.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#64

Post by borkt » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

Ididntdothis wrote: post #59

dfsegoat wrote: post #4

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing. From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally: - None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2] - Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price. - Some also left because of political and human environment: We hav…

I work remotely but just moved to Sonoma county because my partner got a job here. The house prices are really insane. Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded. I don’t see any jobs here that would even remotely justify the house prices. It’s a beautiful area but the economy is pretty…

I'm born and raised Sonoma County (as is my wife) and we are about the only people we grew up with who still live here. We saved/worked through college bought a house at a decent time (2014), and our mortgage payment for 3BR/2BA is less than many friends pay for a room. If my wife wasn't a winemaker we would most likely not be living here either. I cannot begin to understand how or why people would move here, and many people have come from out of the area to work at the City I work for only to leave after a year or two of living in a home 1/4 the size of where they come from and saving absolutely no money despite their pay increase. We've had 3 people hired for the same position all decline after a month or so of looking for housing, saying they cannot find a place where they could afford based on the salary (and the salaries are high).

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#65

Post by claudeganon » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

dfsegoat wrote: post #4

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing. From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally: - None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2] - Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price. - Some also left because of political and human environment: We hav…

> We have fires caused by illegal cooking fires at these encampments.

Be careful about tossing around this kind of rhetoric. I heard the same story about a fire in my old neighborhood in LA. It turned out that the son of the head of Chamber of Commerce started it trying to firebomb an encampment.

https://ktla.com/2019/09/04/suspects-in-eagle-rock-brush-fir...

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#66

Post by tempsy » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:34 PM UTC

I’m curious about inter-California migration as well.

I live in SF and wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people in SF move to LA.

Personally I would be more than happy moving to San Diego. In my opinion the best city on the west coast and relatively cheap for a coastal city.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#67

Post by jamisteven » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

Californians arent all moving just due to housing costs, overall cost of living there is pretty nuts and unless you work in big tech, your salary is not that great. State plus federal income tax alone was a deal breaker for me when I was there.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#68

Post by jshaqaw » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

Cost of living is real. Weather is real. Outside of a few highly nomadic ultra-high net worth types the tax advantages of moving states is just too trivial in absolute terms for most people to bother with. The idea that masses of people are moving for lower taxes seems like a rhetorical invention of the WSJ editorial page versus anything rooted in reality.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#69

Post by azimuth11 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:36 PM UTC

blahneverdies wrote: post #37

siculars wrote: post #9

Having left NYC for Texas 5 years ago, I can confirm the grass is greener on the other side.

I'd assume that grass was brown and dead. (But no state taxes would be nice.)

The tech job market in Dallas and Houston is pretty hot.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#70

Post by shaneprrlt » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:36 PM UTC

Illinoisan here, have a lot of family and friends that have escaped. Escape is literally how they talk about it too. Most of the complaints I hear is about cost of living and property taxes. All the costs and taxes of a state like California, without any of the beautiful weather (except for 3 months of the year during summer). It's a big issue, and part of the reason, I believe, that they just legalized recreational cannabis.