Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really thank you for your comment, and the time you took to honestly assess the current situation. The one thing that i still have a hard time accepting is that a whole community of scientist accepts doing science on such a fragile basis (such as the fact that more than three quarter of the world wasn't recording temperature until 50 years ago). It seems impossible that so many people keep doing their work on fragi…
It seems impossible that so many people keep doing their work on fragile data (and code, apparently), while at the same time seeing their work used by politicians all over the world to advocate massive policy changes. Mmmm. Surely it's the other way around, this is the expected and indeed only possible outcome. I was in a different HN thread this week where I pointed out that there are some conclusions that might be…
Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
61–70 of 79 posts
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
People are still trying to work out if we can make black bodies that are biased to radiate more heat in frequencies that the atmosphere is permeable to. We have some materials that are much more thermally conductive in one direction than the other. Pair the two, and it might just be possible to shed some heat into space at night. Entropy always wins. It’s the heat trapped in the atmosphere that’s killing us. The univ…
> heat sink Bad analogy and you cannot rely on conduction to transfer heat in space. The only means of heat transfer is radiation.
The answer is “you can, if you have some place to put the heat”. What would you call the counterpart to a heat source?
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
People are still trying to work out if we can make black bodies that are biased to radiate more heat in frequencies that the atmosphere is permeable to. We have some materials that are much more thermally conductive in one direction than the other. Pair the two, and it might just be possible to shed some heat into space at night. Entropy always wins. It’s the heat trapped in the atmosphere that’s killing us. The univ…
Interesting. Do you have resources/keywords I can use to know more about such research?
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a fair point and others have mentioned that before. However, all the sources I have used in my original comment are from the same person - Dr James Hansen who served as the director of NASA Goddard institute for 35 years. He used the 15C claim for many years until he suddenly decided to switch to 14C. In any scientific claim, especially when such small changes could impact major things, a scientist shouldn't s…
Fortunately there are an awful lot of other proxy variables which can be used to show a long-term change in climate. One example of thousands is the Japanese cherry blossom season: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c... And yes, there have been reversals in some years. But overall you can see the industrialisation "hockey stick" quite clearly in that calendar data.
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fortunately there are an awful lot of other proxy variables which can be used to show a long-term change in climate. One example of thousands is the Japanese cherry blossom season: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c... And yes, there have been reversals in some years. But overall you can see the industrialisation "hockey stick" quite clearly in that calendar data.
That graph seems to have opposing data for the global Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Medieval Warm Period (MWP) from about 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D. and the Little Ice Age (LIA) from about 1300 A.D. to 1915 A.D.
> The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from c. 950 to c. 1250.[1] It was likely[2] related to warming elsewhere[3][4][5] while some other regions were colder, such as the tropical Pacific
.. which implies that Japan may have been slightly colder at the time.
(Neatly illustrates that computing global average temperature from a set of local measurements is not as simple as it sounds, because there may also be local climate phenomena)
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
That graph seems to have opposing data for the global Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Medieval Warm Period (MWP) from about 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D. and the Little Ice Age (LIA) from about 1300 A.D. to 1915 A.D.
The MWP was a local phenomenon; per wikipedia > The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from c. 950 to c. 1250.[1] It was likely[2] related to warming elsewhere[3][4][5] while some other regions were colder, such as the tropical Pacific .. which implies that Japan may have been slightly cold…
Until 2000, it was claimed that the MWP was global.
IPCC's 1990s report Page 8 of 44 (PDF page number, not the one on the text)
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_...
Look at the bottom graph and the text.
> Schematic diagrams of global temperature variations since the Pleistocene on three time scales > There is giowing evidence that worldwide temperatures were higher than at present during the mid-Holocene (especially 5 000-6 000 BP), at least in summer, though carbon dioxide levels appear to have been quite similar to those of the pre-mdustnal era at this time (Section 1 i Thus parts Sorry about the spelling issues in the copied text, the PDF's OCR isn't the best.
-------
Also here in another report, graph b) on page 2/16 shows the same MWP and little ice age as "Global temperature trend for millennium"
https://web.archive.org/web/20070404001809/http://www.epa.go...
The graph c) also shows that in the past 25,000 years, it first used to be much colder, then got much hotter and then cooler and then warmer. It is pretty much impossible for it to be a local phenomenon if the variation was that much in that many areas.
-------
https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?Id=BFE4...
Dr. David Deming, geologist and geophysicist, College of Earth and Energy, University of Oklahoma, senate testimony from December 6, 2006:
> I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period." The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of unusually warm weather that began around 1000 AD and persisted until a cold period known as the "Little Ice Age" took hold in the 14th century. Warmer climate brought a remarkable flowering of prosperity, knowledge, and art to Europe during the High Middle Ages. The existence of the MWP had been recognized in the scientific literature for decades. But now it was a major embarrassment to those maintaining that the 20th century warming was truly anomalous. It had to be "gotten rid of."
--------
Edit:
I read the wikipedia citation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period#cite_note...
The citation seems to contradict what's said in the wikipedia.
http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/Glacial....
> The first phase of the LIA began around the thirteenth century in all the regions for which there is evidence. The glacial phase preceding the MWP seems to have begun between the seventh and ninth centuries A.D. but is generally less securely dated and not dated at all in Canada. There are at least some indications of fluctuations in ice position in the course of the MWP in Norway, Alaska, and perhaps in extratropical South America and New Zealand, indicating that recession may have been interrupted by advances, perhaps of limited extent, as in the European Alps. The available evidence suggests that the MWP was global in extent and not uniform climatically. The glacial data needs to be considered in relation to that from other sources, but is of value in obtaining a more complete understanding of both the environment in the later medieval period and the possible causes of climatic change on the century time scale.
> The available evidence suggests that the MWP was global in extent and not uniform climatically.
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
are you familiar with the blog made by tony heller (also on youtube) ? He regularely points out those exact same remark. I am very careful to wait until other people confirms that there is indeed a methodological problem before jumping to conclusion, but it really sounds very interesting.
Tony Heller is a well credentialed denier[1], been in the game since at least 2008, and is at least good friends with the deniers that get oil money to keep going [2]. I estimate his honesty as comparable to that of Giuliani post 2017. [1] https://www.desmogblog.com/steven-goddard [2] https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12032015/leaked-email-rev...
> good friends with the deniers
What does that have to do with anything when he's pointing out with raw data which is provided by science and anybody has the ability to point out what he's doing wrong? If you don't have the ability to point out holes in his data, then I don't think you are acting in good faith.
Also political attacks in a civil debate about science isn't good.
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read Heller's blog. I've also done a bit of double checking of his work because indeed, what he keeps uncovering is extremely interesting and should I feel really have been discussed in popular journalism about climate before now. I want to check more of his claims in future. But for now, I only checked how many data points in the NOAA US temperature dataset are now the output of model simulations and not actual me…
I really thank you for your comment, and the time you took to honestly assess the current situation. The one thing that i still have a hard time accepting is that a whole community of scientist accepts doing science on such a fragile basis (such as the fact that more than three quarter of the world wasn't recording temperature until 50 years ago). It seems impossible that so many people keep doing their work on fragi…
> In honor of the late AUGIE AUER, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming, Chief Meteorologist for the MetService, co-founder of the NZ Climate Science Coalition and much-loved scientist of the highest integrity, members of the Coalition have established a fund now totaling $10,000 to be granted to the first applicant to present real-world evidence showing that the man-made fraction of airborne carbon dioxide causes dangerous global warming. Professor Augie Auer was appalled that climate scientists should be denied funding and be branded ‘deniers’ unless they submitted to the political global warming narrative and renounced the ancient principle that science is never settled. Those refusing the NZCSC’s request for evidence of dangerous man-made global warming include the IPCC, the Royal Society, the Royal Society of New Zealand, the NZ Ministry for the Environment and Professor James Renwick. To the first person who proves what they cannot, we offer this prize in the name of our late, incorruptible colleague.
So far, no one has been able to win it.
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#69In 28 August 1981, the mean surface temperature is 288K = 15 degree C: http://climate-dynamics.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/hanse... ---------- In 1988, it was claimed that the global avg temperature was 59 deg F = 15 degree C Multiple sources: https://www.nytimes.com/1988/03/29/science/temperature-for-w... https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1915&dat=19880705&id=... ---------- IPCC's First Assessment Report in…
In this paper from 1999 it is claimed that the global temperature between 1961 and 1990 was 14.0°C (14.6°C for the northern hemisphere and 13.4°C for the southern hemisphere). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999...
> Sometime between 1997 and 1998, they started claiming the avg to be 14 degree C instead of 15.
So far, I haven't read any valid reasoning on why this happened out of nowhere.
Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am curious but I have pointed out similar discrepancies quite a few times but never received a satisfactory response. Now a days, I am pretty much afraid to even point out such discrepancies in other data too. I can share another example if anyone's curious.
I’d be very interested in another example. It’s not too often we can hear evidence against AGW so it’s worth the downvotes that it will inevitably bring.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-climate-scientist-says-wer...
So I looked at the actual data from the Danish Meteorological Institute:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
June 22, 2008:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE...
June 22, 2014:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE...
June 22, 2018:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE...
The data shows the exact opposite of the claims which were made and even made now a days by the media. It shows it has gotten thicker, more volume and area.
You can confirm this from another source by using the data provided here too:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/
It looks like this: