Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#61

Post by windexh8er » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #39

yokaze wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or laws/taxes are passed, which incorporate the externalities, and subventions for detrimental efforts are cut. That is "just" a matter of political will.

How much war are you willing to wage to force other countries to do the same? I think that's really the only question that matters when it comes to the "everybody pass laws" plan.

This is an ineffective approach. No country can assume any other will fall in line to "do the same". This creates a do nothing approach because it turns doing the right thing, by taking the first steps, into a game of finger pointing. War is definitely not the answer and is 100% counterproductive to the end goal.

If all countries, that are supposedly interested in being the best climate change affectors, all competed to truly be the best - we'd be in a far better spot. The war you allude to is not international in nature. It's national. If the US, for example, actually removed campaign contributions and lobbying allowances from organizations responsible for a majority of annual pollution we'd already be down the road. But instead it is national politics, and those legislators, that are the real roadblock to starting the snowball move towards clean technology.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#62

Post by squarefoot » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

mikro2nd wrote: post #33

Taniwha wrote: post #13

Australia is burning, its government doesn't seem to think anything is wrong, they just want to dig more coal

They might not get the chance: latest news[1] this morning is that some of the coal seams have caught fire underground! This is catastrophic. Underground coal (and oil) fires are near-impossible to put out and are generally just left alone to burn, usually for decades before/if they run out of fuel. [1] https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1213420680579964929?s=20

If that's the case then it's truly catastrophic. As an example, the Centralia (USA) mine coal-seam fire started in 1962 is extimated to last for about 250 more years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire

Assuming we have the technology, removing underground oxygen might help to put out the underground fires, though I can't imagine any process not involving either pumping sea water down there which would make the land sterile for vegetation, or slowly replacing oxygen with CO2 which would be even worse.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#63

Post by scrollaway » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 2:59 PM UTC

chewbacha wrote: post #27

beefield wrote: post #24

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. W…

I don't think that's a very apt analogy because it still frames the question as to whether something is _going_ to happen. It's more like you contemplating whether your house is going to burn next year while a fire fighter is telling you it's on fire right now.

Yes well, those so-called "firefighters", what do they know about fire anyway. I see no evidence that my house is burning, and all the fire coming out of it is due to its natural warming cycle.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#64

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:00 PM UTC

kmlx wrote: post #45

buboard wrote: post #35

it would be naive/foolish to expect that the enormous technological progress and overpopulation by humans would not affect the environment. The question is how fast can people and ecosystems adapt. This is not the first nor the biggest change the earth has seen by far. It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem.

the overpopulation mantra has been debunked so many times already. edit: since i'm getting downvoted for pointing out the obvious, here's links pointing out that overpopulation is a myth, even a racist one in some circumstances: wapo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fee.org/articles/the-myth-tha... https://www.pop.org/debunking-the-myth-of-overpopulation/…

[deleted]

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#65

Post by deith » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:01 PM UTC

skilled wrote: post #6

Living in Eastern Europe right now. It's +6 Celsius for the last week. Earth hasn't frozen yet, so if any snow falls it melts in a few hours. In comparison, when I was growing up here in the 90s; we had solid -30 Celsius winters for several months. You had to prepare opposed to nowadays, where buying a winter jacket comes down to preference. Cold or not cold... But climate change is a hoax, right?

Climate change is not a hoax. Man-made climate change, on the other hand…

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#66

Post by K0SM0S » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:01 PM UTC

kmlx wrote: post #45

buboard wrote: post #35

it would be naive/foolish to expect that the enormous technological progress and overpopulation by humans would not affect the environment. The question is how fast can people and ecosystems adapt. This is not the first nor the biggest change the earth has seen by far. It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem.

the overpopulation mantra has been debunked so many times already. edit: since i'm getting downvoted for pointing out the obvious, here's links pointing out that overpopulation is a myth, even a racist one in some circumstances: wapo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fee.org/articles/the-myth-tha... https://www.pop.org/debunking-the-myth-of-overpopulation/…

Indeed, if we only think in terms of thermodynamics, the Earth could sustain trillions of people with ample private room (orders of magnitude more than our current average home+office size). And if you trickle down to implementation problems (agriculture, logistics, etc) and take mega-structures of the 25th century out from the equation (so, immediate future, 21st century) you still get a max figure north of 10 times the current pop.

The problem is one of contrast: e.g. there's nobody in deserts but people die everyday in overcrowded train stations in India. That's why people perceive "overpopulation" as a problem, but it has more to do with human inefficiency than the physics of our planet.

However GP's point about adaptation speed of our civilization to the changing ecosystem stands.

I sometimes wonder, between utopia and horror, how many people will have to die in the name of climate catastrophes for a global "survival instinct" to kick in at the highest level — like stability is a thing for the finance world, the military world, because we're so aware of how much these things may destroy or kill when derailed.

I'm pretty much convinced it's generational — boomers will never get to it, not enough of them; half of gen Xers might sway; but millenials (born 1982 and on) will enact the tipping point, politically and sociologically. So, that's 2030-2040 mechanically for that gen to become the dominant one (by then aged 50-60).

My question is, how many will climate kill or hurt deeply until then? Could the tipping point happen sooner due to catastrophes?

I don't know what's a reasonable fair estimate, here. Are we talking millions? tens, hundreds? a billion? How dire is the situation, really?

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#67

Post by everybodyknows » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:01 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #39

yokaze wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or laws/taxes are passed, which incorporate the externalities, and subventions for detrimental efforts are cut. That is "just" a matter of political will.

How much war are you willing to wage to force other countries to do the same? I think that's really the only question that matters when it comes to the "everybody pass laws" plan.

More generally, enforcement of the agreed mandates, whether laws within countries, or treaties without.

Here in the US, the selection of laws receiving effective enforcement seems a rather small sample of the vast pile typed out in dusty books.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#68

Post by vjng » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:02 PM UTC

mikro2nd wrote: post #33

Taniwha wrote: post #13

Australia is burning, its government doesn't seem to think anything is wrong, they just want to dig more coal

They might not get the chance: latest news[1] this morning is that some of the coal seams have caught fire underground! This is catastrophic. Underground coal (and oil) fires are near-impossible to put out and are generally just left alone to burn, usually for decades before/if they run out of fuel. [1] https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1213420680579964929?s=20

Quite a lot of the coal mines in Australia are open cut unfortunately. That's just one underground mine of many.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#69

Post by bamboozled » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:02 PM UTC

It’s likely to kill everyone of us. From the rich to the poor, strong to the weak, through famine, war and drought. Natural disaster after natural disaster. Horror after horror. Tragedy after tragedy.

Yet we’re all in state of paralysis, watching our impending doom draw closer and fates unfold. Entrusting those who will do nothing about it. Half of us are still in denial.

I really wonder if we possess the survival instincts we think we do. Do we really have the drive to go on ?

Were humans just lucky to be installed on this beautiful blue spaceship. Do we deserve any merit for our past success? We are just limp and powerless to do anything about it all it seems.

Such a strange time to be alive, what a peculiar situation we’re in. Quite the nightmare indeed.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#70

Post by ixtli » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:02 PM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #46

supercall wrote: post #2

People's financial incentives are not aligned with the climate's necessary modifications. The two won't be aligned until climate passes over its tipping point and enters an irreversible feedback loop.

Because laissez-faire economics doesn't converge automagically on the best path. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/12/how-the...

Correct. I'd add that I don't think anyone worth listening to has ever really thought this to be true: rather, it is convenient for those with the majority of private capital for everyone to believe it is true so that they don't have to account for how they spend their money.