Ugh the "velocity" one really hits home. A couple of jobs ago one of our project managers was constantly showing burn down charts (which, of course, never burned down); along with our "velocity". The funny thing is, because we were doing t-shirt-size/fibonacci, our velocity numbers varied so wildly that it was essentially a random number generator. Then we were required fit all our stories within a "budget" of our "a…
To be fair, that's very poorly implemented. You should have reference stories for what is a 1 in complexity and the highest value should be low, like 13, which forces you to break things down and forces the PM to write better specs.
dev: well, this looks like it's somewhere between a 5 and an 8, so let's call it 6.
pm: no 6 is not allowed, it must be either a 5 or an 8.
dev: ok, lets call it an 8.
Ok so that's a very plausible conversation, right? I'm sure we've all had it. But just that rule alone made the estimate on this story 20% off, just to satisfy a rule. I'm perfectly fine with that, if we're only talking about that one story. If we're both happy that this might go 20% faster or 20% slower than predicted, no big deal. But if you're going to include it in a larger rollup, you've included a very large error term with your number that you need to carry along with the rest of the calculations. Did you ever take a physics course in college? (A real one -- not one of the baby ones they gave to business and liberal art majors). If they were good, they probably made you deal with carrying an error term in your math. You probably even hated it because it was a pain in the ass to deal with, but it's also kind of important. If you're adding together 50 numbers that are all off by 20%-50% and chucking away the error term, your summary and conclusion are absolute garbage if you do not properly keep the error term included. Math is unforgiving like that. Presenting that absolute garbage as "data" is, in my opinion, professional incompetence. It just is. I guess the softening factor is that so many people do it that it's not an individual incompetence, it's a lack of competence in the profession itself essentially.