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If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

wsj.com

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Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#61

Post by spookthesunset »

account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

> I don't think that Binance is wash-trading

Given most of these exchanges are completely unregulated and typically go to great lengths to conceal their identities.... you know they aren't wash-trading how exactly?

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#62

Post by darawk »

mikeyouse wrote: post #60
account73466 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not my definition but the accepted one is price times number of bitcoins mined so far. Of course by selling 1% of all bitcoins you would clean all order books. However, George Soros used only a few billions to bet against the British pound.

Which is nonsense since so many bitcoins have been lost and there is no underlying asset that owning a bitcoin grants you access to.

Sure, but that just makes Bitcoin's market cap smaller, and therefore its expected trading volume relative to similar assets even smaller, and therefore the original commenter's point even more accurate.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#63

Post by Acrobatic_Road »

bduerst wrote: post #55
aazaa wrote: post #18

> About 9.1 million bitcoins, representing about 51% of those outstanding, haven’t changed hands in at least six months, according to Flipside. About two million of those bitcoin haven’t moved in more than two years. Transaction volume has always been a difficult metric. For one thing, most transactions are likely to happen off-chain. That can occur in a centralized system like Coinbase. This has always been a possib…

Lightning network comes up just about every discussion involving bitcoin transactions, but because it requires the bitcoin network to make confirmations, Lightning only scales with the number of transactions, not users. This is still a problem. Example of the problem: * For 2 users to make 10,000,000 transactions between each other, it would take 10 minutes on the lightning network. * For 10,000,000 users to make jus…

>but because it requires the bitcoin network to make confirmation

It doesn't require the Bitcoin network to make confirmation at all. Two users could do millions of txn/s between each other. The only limitation is their internet speed. The bitcoin network does not need to confirm or even know about anything other than the initial deposits. It could even happen entirely offline in a closed network, though that would be insecure. That is the whole idea behind lightning so I am not sure how you missed it. The real limitations of lightning/state channels relate to liquidity.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#64

Post by darawk »

bduerst wrote: post #55
aazaa wrote: post #18

> About 9.1 million bitcoins, representing about 51% of those outstanding, haven’t changed hands in at least six months, according to Flipside. About two million of those bitcoin haven’t moved in more than two years. Transaction volume has always been a difficult metric. For one thing, most transactions are likely to happen off-chain. That can occur in a centralized system like Coinbase. This has always been a possib…

Lightning network comes up just about every discussion involving bitcoin transactions, but because it requires the bitcoin network to make confirmations, Lightning only scales with the number of transactions, not users. This is still a problem. Example of the problem: * For 2 users to make 10,000,000 transactions between each other, it would take 10 minutes on the lightning network. * For 10,000,000 users to make jus…

Are you including the time it takes to open a state channel in this? That's an infrequently incurred cost that can be amortized pretty easily. Not really a reasonable comparison here.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#65

Post by glofish »

Any time WSJ or Forbes writes about the bitcoin I get the feeling that their actual frustration is that they (the Wall Stree speculators) cannot control it the way they are used to.

Always feels like sour grapes to me - for some reason that pleases me. Bitcoin is an equalizer in that respect.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#66

Post by account73466 »

spookthesunset wrote: post #61
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

> I don't think that Binance is wash-trading Given most of these exchanges are completely unregulated and typically go to great lengths to conceal their identities.... you know they aren't wash-trading how exactly?

I don't say I know, I say that I think. It remains a possibility that they are wash-trading.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#67

Post by darawk »

spookthesunset wrote: post #61
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

> I don't think that Binance is wash-trading Given most of these exchanges are completely unregulated and typically go to great lengths to conceal their identities.... you know they aren't wash-trading how exactly?

There are a lot of reports on this, but this one is the most comprehensive:

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca2...

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#68

Post by whack »

mikeyouse wrote: post #38
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

There's no such thing as a "market cap" for Bitcoin - seriously, give me a definition of "market cap" for Bitcoin that makes any sense at all compared to something like the future value of cash flows from UNH equity.

The market cap for UNH isn't calculated using future cash flows. The market cap for any security, by definition, is price-per-security * number-of-securities. Similar valuations also exist for gold-funds, which also have no cash flows.

You can argue that asset prices should be derived from future cash flows, and hence, both Bitcoin and gold should be almost worthless. But that has nothing to do with the formula for computing any entity's market cap

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#69

Post by toomim »

mikeyouse wrote: post #38
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

There's no such thing as a "market cap" for Bitcoin - seriously, give me a definition of "market cap" for Bitcoin that makes any sense at all compared to something like the future value of cash flows from UNH equity.

Market Capitalization: The amount of capital allotted an asset in the market.

This can be computed as number-of-coins x price-per-coin.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#70

Post by [deleted] »

shepardrtc wrote: post #39
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

I have a hard time believe its anything other than market makers providing the illusion of trades. Have you seen the price swings? If there was real volume and real transactions asides from trades, how would such insane swings be possible?

[deleted]
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