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How we will know when a recession is coming?

brookings.edu

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Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#61

Post by rolltiide »

rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

A recession just means that the prior few quarters of GDP growth did not exceed the quarters before it

It is remarkable that the domestic product increases so reliably between quarters at all

It is correlated and conflated with asset prices and needs to hire anyone but it stops there. Nuanced talking points have no room for discussing when a recession ended or not.

What you are referring to is an entirely different discussion, no matter how relatable it is to people.

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#62

Post by asdfman123 »

the_watcher wrote: post #46
Animats wrote: post #42

"The indicator has both correctly signaled a recession 4–5 months following the beginning of the recession and has virtually never called a recession incorrectly since 1970.' This is more like "how will we know when a recession has already started without waiting for a down GDP for two quarters." That's 6 months in. This signal lets you know 4-5 months in. Not exactly a leading indicator.

> has virtually never called a recession incorrectly since 1970. "virtually never" also sounds like weasel words considering the total number of recessions.

Also, what happened before 1970? Is it possible they're just overfitting here?

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#63

Post by Swizec »

testis321 wrote: post #26
anm89 wrote: post #4

This is a really interesting metric but I'm going to argue that it doesn't say that much about our current situation given that our current unemployment numbers are highly skewed due to a strong shift towards low quality part time work and a large number of people opting out of the labor search (who are not considered unemployed in these statistics). I could see an argument made that given that this is statistic is r…

I do not have any real numbers, and this is just anecdotal, but in Slovenia (small EU country), a lot of our larger retailers have replaced some posters (basically ads) in their stores with "workers needed" posters, and some have literally advertised that they're looking for workers in their paper ads we get in the mail. Also a car repair shop literally had an radio ad that they're looking for repairmen. It might be…

My sister was working in those retail positions in Slovenia as late as 2 years ago. The pay is laughable (3eur/hour) and the working conditions are shit.

A promotion grants you a whopping 10cent rate increase. A whole 0.8 euro per day if you pass a test!! Oh and you don’t get more than 30 hours per week coz then they’d have to pay benefits.

No shit they have a hard time hiring. Most young people will rather try being an instagram influencer than work for those wages. Got nothing to lose at that point

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#64

Post by mirimir »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #56
rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

> They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve That is absurd. In a free market with free movement of goods and people, whatever you are getting paid is what you "deserve" aka what other participants in the market are willing to pay for your services. It is only explicit government intervention that overrides this process; subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc. But with everything e…

In real markets, "free movement of goods and people" just doesn't happen. Workers arguably have more constraints on movement than employers and goods do. There's no human equivalent for long-haul trucking and container ships. Not to mention learning Chinese or whatever, getting a work visa, and adapting to the culture.

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#65

Post by 50656E6973 »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #56
rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

> They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve That is absurd. In a free market with free movement of goods and people, whatever you are getting paid is what you "deserve" aka what other participants in the market are willing to pay for your services. It is only explicit government intervention that overrides this process; subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc. But with everything e…

Do you consider it a free market if the government bails out big price manipulators when their scheme implodes?

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#66

Post by bumby »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #56
rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

> They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve That is absurd. In a free market with free movement of goods and people, whatever you are getting paid is what you "deserve" aka what other participants in the market are willing to pay for your services. It is only explicit government intervention that overrides this process; subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc. But with everything e…

I'd argue that you're not necessarily paid equivalent to your worth but rather according to your negotiating options.

The problem with a recession is that it tips the negotiating leverage towards the employers because there is an oversupply of workers. I don't want to speak for them, but I'm assuming the OP means getting to the pay level they would be at had the recession not occurred.

In a sense, both wage rates are "deserved" in the context of the economic reality, but there is a certain amount of luck involved, just like for those planning on retiring in 2008.

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#68

Post by asdfman123 »

dev_dull wrote: post #38

I worry a lot less about a market correction then I do a political "correction" affecting the markets. We're so polarized. You can sense a desperation among those who took out an exceptionally high amount of student debt and have no realistic way of repaying it. Risk of medical bankruptcy is also extremely high. Among other things, these types of occurrences make people desperate, and desperate people are willing to…

It's funny, I feel the exact same way as you (I just want our country to hold together) but due to my own biases I'm afraid of threats from the right.

I see social democracy as a necessary palliative that will prevent people from resorting to self-destructive populism. We've got to find some way to bring people back into the fold. I don't buy the idea that investing in our own people leads to authoritarianism.

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#69

Post by lph »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #56
rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

> They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve That is absurd. In a free market with free movement of goods and people, whatever you are getting paid is what you "deserve" aka what other participants in the market are willing to pay for your services. It is only explicit government intervention that overrides this process; subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc. But with everything e…

> ...getting exactly what the market could afford.

"afford" is an odd word choice. As if to suggest that employers simply don't have any money by which they could have increased worker salaries.

In this same period, average CEO compensation increased 25-50%, depending on how you measure it. So, apparently, there's lots of money, but its distribution is skewing increasingly to the very top.

So let's not say "afford".

Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?

#70

Post by kemitche »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #56
rubicon33 wrote: post #51

> The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009 As a "millennial" who graduated in 2008, I seriously hate reading shit like this. Maybe it recovered for the Boomer's pension funds and 401k's, but it took many of my friends over a decade to find work equal to their qualifications. They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve (PHDs, MBAs, and Masters degree holders).

> They're only JUST NOW starting to get payed what they deserve That is absurd. In a free market with free movement of goods and people, whatever you are getting paid is what you "deserve" aka what other participants in the market are willing to pay for your services. It is only explicit government intervention that overrides this process; subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc. But with everything e…

> subsided renewal energy sources, childcare, housing etc.

Skipping over oil company subsidies and big bank bailouts when you're cherry picking your government intervention examples makes you appear rather biased.

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