Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 103 posts

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#61

Post by deehouie »

stunt wrote: post #49
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Don’t underestimate what media can do. One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow. Obviously there are more than one reason on the table. One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons) Second is of course now some ot…

On the topic of scaling (or more appropriately down-scaling) the Chinese model, I'd love to read some serious academic/scholarly papers about that. Like Western capitalism currently in practice here (i mean US), the Chinese model certainly has its limitations. There is zero chance, I mean absolute zero probability that China could grow at 6+% forever. But the fact that a country of 1.2 billion population has emerged from dire poverty just some short 50 yrs ago into one of the most vibrant economies in the world is a fact that's truly inspiring.

This is one of those examples, as in predicting the stock market, where the majority opinion is always wrong.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#62

Post by abledon »

DuskStar wrote: post #33
ajflores1604 wrote: post #2

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

ADVChina is really entertaining. I'm not sure how reliable they are, but my impression has been pretty favorable so far.

its the only digestible news source for geopolitical stuff I can watch AFTER a day of intense programming.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#63

Post by chillacy »

AFascistWorld wrote: post #36
haunter wrote: post #18

Every time I read about China I never know it's just western propaganda or not (true vice versa ofc)

There's never a crisis until the crisis actually hits.

Till then make ad revenue off clicks on the future crisis.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#64

Post by vajaya »

nordsieck wrote: post #5
coliveira wrote: post #3

China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?

> China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. It's not clear to me the extent one can trust the official numbers from China.

you are right. probably China has always been under reporting their growth rate as the hide your strength strategy. It's inexplicable that China's GDP from construction is smaller than that of U.S., given that China is undergoing an infrastructure build up at a scale that human race has never seen.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#65

Post by deehouie »

tepidandroid wrote: post #60
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

Can you pls post some links. I'm a die-hard collector of these articles.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#66

Post by Mirioron »

chillacy wrote: post #59
Mirioron wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.

Anyone can predict a bear market... the trick is when.

You can't really predict a 'when' if the government controls the economy. But I would say that a 'when' doesn't matter much if it happens at some point.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#67

Post by stunt »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
onetimemanytime wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…

Yes! One side is the job program. And second is also because ordinary Chinese look at it as an investment. They also buy houses in EU for the sake of investment and leave them empty. So much in fact major EU cities are going to add empty house tax.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#68

Post by vajaya »

dia80 wrote: post #40
fiblye wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been seeing the same article here rehashed since I was in elementary school over 20 years ago. I trust CCP statistics as much as I trust western reports about China. Which is to say, not at all. China probably isn’t as rich or powerful as it projects, but it’s also clearly not as weak and fragile as American media has been hoping all these decades.

That's unwise, you can call the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) up and ask them how they arrived at their numbers. In the UK you can go on field trips with the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to watch them measure inflation. It's materially different.

Data messaging is a legitimate and well established study and practice

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#69

Post by LiquidSky »

deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Leave it to the NYT to show us the evils of the NYT, I guess.

But isn't it all about timing? You could have said a similar thing about articles predicting the end of the 2000s-era growth in the US up until 2007-2008. They're so obviously wrong until they're not.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#70

Post by kristianov »

Mirioron wrote: post #58
deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.

The Chinese government is really smart about it. From what I understand, it goes at follows: the price bubble will not burst if real estate market has little to no transactions. The trick is to limit the number of eligible buyers with policies, so that the price can only go up.

It's really genius if you think about it. Chinese housing market is NOT a free market, and the government is the biggest player (and judge) in it. If it is made-up from the beginning, how can it collapse?

Well, unless the government collapses first.

Post reply on HN