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What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

scottberkun.com

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Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#61

Post by junkbit »

grandalf wrote: post #60
dotcoma wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

45%? Not even in Ballmer's wet dreams. Bing's market share is only up 4% since launch http://www.microsoft.com/investor/EarningsAndFinancials/Earn... and most of those gains must have come at the expense of Yahoo!

What is your projection for search market share in 5 years? It's a business that takes lots of investment in scale. I think Google is one misstep away from Bing grabbing lots more share. Google instant was a near-miss. Even on my new macbook wtih google chrome it's annoyingly jittery and hinders the user experience.

You can see how much they have moved in the past 12 months in this graph. Project this forward 5 years [flash warning]

http://gs.statcounter.com/?PHPSESSID=nv37oj3f3ovned6v8hr2mlp...

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#62

Post by dotcoma »

junkbit wrote: post #61
grandalf wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your projection for search market share in 5 years? It's a business that takes lots of investment in scale. I think Google is one misstep away from Bing grabbing lots more share. Google instant was a near-miss. Even on my new macbook wtih google chrome it's annoyingly jittery and hinders the user experience.

You can see how much they have moved in the past 12 months in this graph. Project this forward 5 years [flash warning] http://gs.statcounter.com/?PHPSESSID=nv37oj3f3ovned6v8hr2mlp...

so: not much. Or not?

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#63

Post by dotcoma »

kenjackson wrote: post #56
dotcoma wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, they lose 4 cents every time a search is performed (2 B USD in loss, 4 B searches per month, or 50 B per year) but they will make up on the volume? Not to mention: they still use Overture to monetize search...

First, the original comment is spot on with his/her analysis. I don't think you get how search and advertising works. Clicks lead to revenue, but you need clicks first. In order to get clicks you need to be competitive. With Google just a URL away they need to be nearly as good, if not better (due to name recognition) than Google to get a large share of the pie. So the problem is that they must effectively spend (or…

all I ask is: when? when will they be able to go from $500M loss to $500M in earnings?

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#64

Post by kenjackson »

dotcoma wrote: post #63
kenjackson wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, the original comment is spot on with his/her analysis. I don't think you get how search and advertising works. Clicks lead to revenue, but you need clicks first. In order to get clicks you need to be competitive. With Google just a URL away they need to be nearly as good, if not better (due to name recognition) than Google to get a large share of the pie. So the problem is that they must effectively spend (or…

all I ask is: when? when will they be able to go from $500M loss to $500M in earnings?

I'd say Q3 FY12. The Yahoo search deal will be in place, but paid ads are lagging. Once the paid ads from Yahoo get bolted on with Bing, give it another quarter, to deal with the upfront costs.

At that point I speculate they'll be close to $500M in earnings. And at that point, every percentage point they get it should increase earnings by $100+M.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#65

Post by moonhorse »

I am a fan of Scott, but the last paragraph on Sinofsky is laughable. Online business and software are different beasts. With all his advocation of the dogmatic triad model, Sinofsky would for sure slow down online service division and sink the business even more.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#66

Post by dotcoma »

kenjackson wrote: post #64
dotcoma wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

all I ask is: when? when will they be able to go from $500M loss to $500M in earnings?

I'd say Q3 FY12. The Yahoo search deal will be in place, but paid ads are lagging. Once the paid ads from Yahoo get bolted on with Bing, give it another quarter, to deal with the upfront costs. At that point I speculate they'll be close to $500M in earnings. And at that point, every percentage point they get it should increase earnings by $100+M.

are you telling me that they still use Overture for ads on Bing + Yahoo! Search but they are still using two different and separated versions of Overture, so that I have to get two accounts to advertise on the two search engines? wow...

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#67

Post by kenjackson »

dotcoma wrote: post #66
kenjackson wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say Q3 FY12. The Yahoo search deal will be in place, but paid ads are lagging. Once the paid ads from Yahoo get bolted on with Bing, give it another quarter, to deal with the upfront costs. At that point I speculate they'll be close to $500M in earnings. And at that point, every percentage point they get it should increase earnings by $100+M.

are you telling me that they still use Overture for ads on Bing + Yahoo! Search but they are still using two different and separated versions of Overture, so that I have to get two accounts to advertise on the two search engines? wow...

Looks like their earlier than scheduled:

http://www.mcintoshmarketing.com/ppc/yahoo-starting-migratio...

This is from Aug 31. Not sure what the state of it is now. Whenever this transition is complete.. .I'd add a quarter or two before we start seeing some respectable (relatively) earnings from Bing.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#68

Post by dotcoma »

kenjackson wrote: post #67
dotcoma wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you telling me that they still use Overture for ads on Bing + Yahoo! Search but they are still using two different and separated versions of Overture, so that I have to get two accounts to advertise on the two search engines? wow...

Looks like their earlier than scheduled: http://www.mcintoshmarketing.com/ppc/yahoo-starting-migratio... This is from Aug 31. Not sure what the state of it is now. Whenever this transition is complete.. .I'd add a quarter or two before we start seeing some respectable (relatively) earnings from Bing.

this is good news. What would "respectable" mean for you?

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#69

Post by kenjackson »

dotcoma wrote: post #68
kenjackson wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like their earlier than scheduled: http://www.mcintoshmarketing.com/ppc/yahoo-starting-migratio... This is from Aug 31. Not sure what the state of it is now. Whenever this transition is complete.. .I'd add a quarter or two before we start seeing some respectable (relatively) earnings from Bing.

this is good news. What would "respectable" mean for you?

I think they need to come in at $100M+ earnings at least. That would be "high-class hooker" respectable. I think they really do need to look more at the $500M range though to say it was an unqualified success.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#70

Post by dotcoma »

kenjackson wrote: post #69
dotcoma wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is good news. What would "respectable" mean for you?

I think they need to come in at $100M+ earnings at least. That would be "high-class hooker" respectable. I think they really do need to look more at the $500M range though to say it was an unqualified success.

how much does Google earn in a quarter in the US? 1.5 billion? 2 billion? Bing + Yahoo is about 20% of the market, or 1/4th of Google (in the US). So, 500 M is good, but 100 M means it would take years and years just to earn back what they have lost online in all these years, don't you think?
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