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U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

noaa.gov

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Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#61

Post by mirimir »

mihaifm wrote: post #17
6d6b73 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

=> more snow in winter => mini ice age

=> more water in the air => increased greenhouse effect => rising temperatures => even more water in the air

Yes. And the greenhouse effect overall is mostly due to water in the air. But water content is very sensitive to temperature. And when CO2 level increases, that also increases water content. So water is like an amplifier for CO2 changes.

Edit: Maybe someone thinks that this is a GCC-denial argument. It's not. Water vapor is in fact the major greenhouse gas: 36% (in dry areas) to 72% (in humid areas) of total greenhouse forcing.[0]

0) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Greenhouse_gase...

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#62

Post by jupiter90000 »

mirimir wrote: post #2

Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.

Guess it is somehow not happening in UK though, weird! :-)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/...

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#63

Post by zaroth »

floatrock wrote: post #47
kingkawn wrote: post #35

What if rather than doom we get global tropical paradise

What if new tropical paradises means the current tropical paradises become uninhabitable, creating more forced migrations that make the syrian refugee crisis look like a quiet day on the canadian border, and the lands that become your "tropical paradise" actually are the grain belts of the world, which can no longer grow all the food a continuously expanding global population demands? Look at all the flooding in the…

Wheat prices don’t seem to be particular affected;

https://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-cha...

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#64

Post by WheelsAtLarge »

I wonder if water export can become an industry in the same manner as petroleum or natural gas? With solar power getting so inexpensive I wonder if we could fill a very slow solar power tanker and ship it to the middle east at costs lower than desalinization? Thoughts anyone?

It might not be so crazy. At one-time shipping ice around the world was a thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_trade

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#65

Post by Smoosh »

viraptor wrote: post #34
6d6b73 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah - https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-m...

It's weird that they call it "mini ice age" then follow up with - we had one in 17th century, London got temperature below 0 in winter. Not what I imagine from the name.

Humans are bad at distinguishing small but close from large but far away for abstract ideas like climate.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#66

Post by btilly »

trentnix wrote: post #30
btilly wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The widespread willful ignorance about the differences between modeling weather and climate was amusing to me 20 years ago. But the joke is long past its sell-by date. No, we can't predict whether it will rain on this day in August in Augusta Georgia. Detailed forecasts will probably never get a lot better a month out. But we can predict that December 2019 will be colder than August 2019 across most of the USA, and t…

Not really. The delta in how data is collected in August and December is much smaller than 1980 to 2020. So such determinations aren’t as straightforward as you imply. Not to mention none of the catastrophic climate consequences predicted in 1980 came to pass, but somehow we are supposed to be so much more certain about the prognosticators of today.

The "catastrophic climate consequences predicted in 1980" is pure propaganda.

Even as far back as 1970, climate predictions in papers were overwhelmingly for warming, not cooling. And those which predicted cooling were focused on the effects of smog. However smog has largely disappeared thanks to environmental regulations enforced by organizations such as the EPA, and with it its localized cooling effects. By 1980, predictions of cooling were essentially gone from the scientific literature.

However every last report that can be found of someone predicting cooling in any context (eg nuclear winter) gets press along with the message that those darned scientists were wrong again. The fact that they were always a minority view doesn't.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#67

Post by ThomPete »

viraptor wrote: post #18
billions wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most powerful supercomputers in the world are focused on weather analysis and they can only project a few days out. Yet, some people think they've got it figured out.

Few days out projection is hard and influenced by lots of chaotic changes. Long term trends are a completely different thing. I can't tell you what temperature will be where I live tomorrow, but I can tell you it's going to be ~30°C higher in 6 months.

But not whether its going to be 3 degrees hotter in 50 years and not whether its because of humans or natural patterns. This is the part of the story we somehow always forget.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#68

Post by TheRealPomax »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #64

I wonder if water export can become an industry in the same manner as petroleum or natural gas? With solar power getting so inexpensive I wonder if we could fill a very slow solar power tanker and ship it to the middle east at costs lower than desalinization? Thoughts anyone? It might not be so crazy. At one-time shipping ice around the world was a thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_trade

Except the US really, really, really needs it. Just in different parts of the US.

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#69

Post by mcone »

mc32 wrote: post #7
mirimir wrote: post #2

Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.

Should we expect dry (arid) regions around the world to experience more rainfall?

Not in the Southwestern United States, where recent studies indicate that the odds for decades-long "megadrought" are as high as 99%.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/10/e1600873.full

Re: U.S. has its wettest 12 months on record again

#70

Post by TheRealPomax »

jupiter90000 wrote: post #62
mirimir wrote: post #2

Global climate change => higher air temperatures => more water in the air => more water available to fall out of the air.

Guess it is somehow not happening in UK though, weird! :-) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/...

To be fair, the UK is not in the US, no matter how many high school students might guess that it is...
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