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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#61
post #4

Great article on the disconnectedness and short-term-ism: > She said the main thing is just that Miami was being very forward thinking. She mentioned Amsterdam, and how they were making it work, and how the Dutch were just the poster child for how this worked, and that they were sorting out a way to make this work. “I think the takeaway is just that Miami is doing something about it.” Guess this will take a few flood…

I would question how many of the buildings and infrastructure in South Florida will still be usable/habitable 50 years from now, even without a sea level rise.

In California both the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles have a significant amount of near term risk in terms of water and seismic risk. The absolute worst case scenarios probably make Miami in 2069 look mild.

During the cold war, the assumption was that any major US or European city could become un-inhabitable in moments and most of the humans would be dead. That provided a pretty strong incentive not to build in a dense urban areas, but it was balanced out with the sense of total annihilation for everyone. Some still chose to put their money in to fallout shelters than "prime" Manhattan real estate.

I don't know much about cities and populations outside of the US. I suspect a lot of them are at risk. In Iraq, if the Mosul dam failed, most of the major cities would be wiped out. This is probably true in many other places with questionable hydrology infrastructure.

It would be interesting to build risk models of geographical areas that are at risk of instant destruction (dam failure, earthquakes, nuclear power plant failures, nuclear weapons) and longer term risks. What parts of the world will humans live in 500 years?

Also I'd like to hear from people who are living in the Millennium Tower in San Francisco.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#62
post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

There's a bit of that in this older article. The problem of spoiling of fresh water is insurmountable.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-ho...

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#63
post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

Rich people have multiple passports, Swiss bank accounts and real estate in New Zeeland for when shit goes down. They have options. Namely get the hell out of Dodge. I don't think they are really all that attached to Miami.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#64

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected.

I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot!

And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have any plans on increasing the number of them.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#65
post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

I agree. The opening of the article intrigued me, so I read it. All I could think was: what fun to read about a lady who has never met a real estate agent !

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

If your city is built on a sponge and in the flattest state to boot your solutions look like seasteading, not dams and pumps. From an engineering point of view Miami should be looking to Venice, not Amsterdam. You can’t save Florida land by pumping so the only way to go is to make your own taller land or to build what amount to boats or oil rigs.

Adding some fun science: pumps are particularly unsuited to FL because of the "sponge" that makes up its land. As freshwater is taken up from the soil for human use, saltwater slowly follows it in (contaminating Fl's freshwater source). If there's a mismatch in the rate of percolation, you can get sinkholes -- the land collapses because there isn't water in the cracks holding it up. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/science-behind...

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#67
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m similarly perplexed at RE. For one, I make a good living and yet I can’t find decent, affordable homes near me. They’re all dated and much too expensive/soft. Dated in that they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area - and rampant lead paint/asbestos. Apartment buildings are similarly dated. Last I looked, in a big city apartment complexes were rare if they had one or two char…

>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.

Depends on your age; heat-related deaths among the elderly and other vulnerable populations are up in several areas. Is RE Reunion? If so, in a place like that if nighttime temps start failing to drop humans start experiencing heat stress.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

If your city is built on a sponge and in the flattest state to boot your solutions look like seasteading, not dams and pumps. From an engineering point of view Miami should be looking to Venice, not Amsterdam. You can’t save Florida land by pumping so the only way to go is to make your own taller land or to build what amount to boats or oil rigs.

This is what annoyed me a bit about the article. Sea level rise doesn't seem like that much of a problem.

If the foundations will still be tenable, and the buildings are built appropriately (e.g. parking garage for first level), they're going to be there.

For older ones? Hell, Americans were lifting entire buildings 6' in the 1850s: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_of_Chicago

Miami already has canals, so swapping transportation from roads to waterways isn't a huge leap. Where you really need a road, loft it up above the water. Roads are probably the lightest / easiest thing to lift.

That said... the real killer of the city is likely to be drinking water access. Groundwater in porous limestone means saltwater infiltration doesn't just flood, it mixes with freshwater.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-29/miami-s-o...

Reconfiguring height is a one-time problem. Desalination of all your drinking water is a much more expensive problem.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#69

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected. I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot! And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have a…

People don't like to spend money until they're in real pain. If you don't go to Disney because you have purchased a car that can't go there unless there are electric charge stations, I don't think that's painful for them yet.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#70

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

Most buildings last more than 20 years. I get you can make rennovations...however if you plan for the future during construction those rennovations can be much cheaper.

For example making their be excess circuit breaker capacity during construction doesn't cost much and enables ev charging to be added at a later date for less money than if that spare electrical capacity wasn't installed

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