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Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

nytimes.com

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Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#61

Post by gumby »

toomanybeersies wrote: post #27

The problem is that as a society we believe that people need to work 40 hours a week to survive. We replace people with robots and retain the same output. We are more productive than ever before, yet work the same amount. Physical and uneducated work is being replaced by automation, yet we expect these people replaced by robots to find jobs to survive where there are now none. I don't believe in Universal Basic Incom…

> I don't believe in Universal Basic Income though, we live in a society and it is our duty to contribute to that society.

There are plenty of things people do that are valuable to society yet are not captured in the GDP, and are thus not highly valued by contemporary society. They range from visiting and looking after elder parents, playing with your children, writing poetry etc. Then there are undervalued activities which, due to being undervalued, are often rejected by people who would be good at them but can't afford a sacrifice (e.g. teaching, various kinds of social work, etc).

As the marginal cost of production asymptotes towards nil, peoples' sense of self worth from work (which is largely a modern belief anyway dating from the middle of the industrial revolution) can be sloughed off.

> I think the answer is that we need to move towards a shorter workday. Raise wages and shorten work hours.

I agree that we should do this urgently, but beware a belief in the "lump of labor fallacy".

Also, because people currently do develop a sense of self worth from their work, we should be investing heavily in helping people readjust to the loss of economic value in their work. For example governments offer retraining programs, but while a 20 year old coal miner may be able to find a job repairing trucks or writing reactive web apps, a 60 year old coal miner, who after two years of training becomes a 62 year old auto mechanic or web developer, will struggle to find employment. These people (both at 20 and 60) need assistance that also preserves their dignity.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#62

Post by baroffoos »

pmiller2 wrote: post #48
toomanybeersies wrote: post #27

The problem is that as a society we believe that people need to work 40 hours a week to survive. We replace people with robots and retain the same output. We are more productive than ever before, yet work the same amount. Physical and uneducated work is being replaced by automation, yet we expect these people replaced by robots to find jobs to survive where there are now none. I don't believe in Universal Basic Incom…

What is your evidence that UBI reduces people’s contribution to society? If you’re referring to people not “working” in the traditional sense, not all contributions map nicely to economic output.

Exactly, the UBI would enable people to be paid for often non paying contributions like open source contributions, keeping park lands clean, creating educational content online and lots of other things. If I was paid a UBI I would still spend most of my time contributing but I would just do the things I see value in without having to worry about how will I make someone pay for this.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#63

Post by jameshart »

ipnon wrote: post #15
jedberg wrote: post #2

There are two solutions: Part one, a more educated populace. Education will help those that can work in the "good jobs" get the good jobs. Part two, tax policy. Wealth needs to be redistributed so that there are masses to buy the products that the wealthy are creating. Edit: I just watched this post go up to 10 points, down to 3 and then back to 5. Clearly this is controversial. I find it interesting that wealth redi…

If the average IQ of a STEM graduate is a standard deviation or more above average [0][1], then how does a more educated populace result in something besides the stratification we see today? STEM education can help a person get on the right side of the tech split, but the STEM education itself is already prohibitively difficult. [0] https://thetab.com/us/2017/04/10/which-major-has-highest-iq-... [1] http://www.randal…

Two things:

1) if you exclude everybody less than 1 standard deviation above the mean in a normally distributed population, you're left with approximately 16% of the population. The tech sector currently employs approximately 4% of the US population, so at most it's employing 1 in 4 people whose IQ is >1 std deviation above mean. Plenty of room to grow.

2) The idea that STEM education is simply beyond the capabilities of people who aren't in that lucky 16% needs support. The correlation of success in STEM to IQ does not mean causation runs from 'having a high IQ' leads to 'capable of being educated in STEM'. It seems equally possible that 'pursuing education in STEM' leads to 'having a high IQ', and that if we push more people through STEM-oriented education, more people will develop high IQs (of course, that would move the average, which isn't how IQ works, but... you get the idea).

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#64

Post by drewg123 »

We're heading toward a future where more and more is automated and there is less and less room for non-creative work. Let's face it, not everybody can be creative in a way that is lucrative. Do we really want to doom more and more of the population to a subsistence income, while more and more of the gains due to automation go to a shrinking segment of the population? I tend to think that a generous UBI is really the only sensible thing to do.

In case anybody has not read it, Mana, is a short story based on an extrapolation of this kind of rise of automation. I highly recommend it: http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#65

Post by pmiller2 »

freehunter wrote: post #23
ipnon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the average IQ of a STEM graduate is a standard deviation or more above average [0][1], then how does a more educated populace result in something besides the stratification we see today? STEM education can help a person get on the right side of the tech split, but the STEM education itself is already prohibitively difficult. [0] https://thetab.com/us/2017/04/10/which-major-has-highest-iq-... [1] http://www.randal…

Because IQ is not scientifically proven and is inherently flawed.

What is your evidence? IQ tests undoubtedly measure something, and that something correlates with things like academic performance and certain types of job performance. What’s flawed about that?

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#66

Post by twblalock »

nicklaf wrote: post #56
refurb wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about people who want to work? Their productivity increases even further, they make more money and inequity increases. Or are you suggesting we ban working?

Or are you suggesting we ban working? Well, with a sufficiently progressive tax, you might choose to stop volunteering your time for what will be diminishing returns in income.

> Well, with a sufficiently progressive tax, you might choose to stop volunteering your time for what will be diminishing returns in income.

A solution that incentivizes successful people to hold themselves back from fulfilling their potential is going to make society poorer overall. If you want to redistribute wealth, you should incentivize the creation of wealth so you have enough to move around.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#67

Post by darawk »

echevil wrote: post #49
darawk wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China.

Probably most east Asian countries? Likely India as well.

Ya, all east asian countries, you're right. China is interesting especially to me though because, just anecdotally, there seem to be an unusually high number of Chinese female STEM graduates. Not sure what's going on there, but they seem to have solved the gender gap in STEM somehow. Could just be i've encountered an unusual sample too, though.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#68

Post by olleromam91 »

jedberg wrote: post #32
gotocake wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealth redistribution is a choice of ethics. If you study world history you’ll quickly realize that it’s ultimately the choice of the mob with the torches and pitchforks. You’d be amazed at how disinterested they are in moral relativism or a chat about Atlas Shrugged. Personally I’d prefer a more equitable redistribution based on planning, rather than a redistribution based on plutocrats being put up against a wall.…

I've had many a discussion about Atlas Shrugged, and in fact used to be an adherent to its philosophy. Until I realized something. For a pure Libertarian society to work, those who cannot work must die. If there is absolutely no social safety net, then if you are too sick to work, you can't make money and therefore can't get care and die. Sure, some will live through charity, but there would be far too many people wh…

I think you said the answer right there. They die.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#69

Post by peisistratos »

president wrote: post #29

I honestly don't think there is a solution here. There will always be a large percentage of the population that don't have the motivation or capacity to learn the skills required to get "good jobs". Unless top earners are willing to sacrifice (tax reform, charity, etc), which is extremely unlikely given human nature, others will need to scrape by with low paying menial jobs. That's how it's always been.

The top earners are the heirs who collect dividends, interest and rent - the rentiers in documentaries like Born Rich. They are unwilling to work, as the real hourly wage has sank in the US since the early 1970s, they have reaped all the benefit.

Far below them is a work force which is split in different skill levels. Only a handful of top school STEM majors graduate every year, then there are the rest.

Since in your universe larger social analysis is excluded, the answer comes down to each individual - their motivation and such.

Re: Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two

#70

Post by jedberg »

sdenton4 wrote: post #34
jedberg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because providing a better base eduction lets those who are in that 1 SD above category actually use it. There are probably a lot of people right now who are 1 SD above but can't get the education they need to make use of it.

Everything will be fine when everybody is above average... Historically, the economic promise has been that everyone who CAN get a job will just get a Different job when new technologies make their current jobs obsolete. Plow-pushers will become welders, for example. And the usual futurist's question is whether instead the low-skill workers are more like horses in the 1930's, soon to be completely useless. The intere…

> Everything will be fine when everybody is above average...

That's not at all what I said. What I said is that education opens the opportunity for those who have the innate ability.

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