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My journey applying AI to horse racing

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Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#61
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The closer to the off the more accurate the price is (wisdom of the crowd) thus less value, you need to know something others don’t to win long term from taking the starting price! I assume you are American as everyone in the UK has a personal betting machine and it’s in their pocket.

Not sure how it works elsewhere but horse betting in the US is almost always parimutuel, meaning that everybody gets the post odds, regardless of when they bought their ticket. In other words, betting early doesn't give any advantage and in fact the later you can wait, the more accurate an idea you have of the actual payout odds of your bet. Thus, having access to a private betting machine, and not having to elbow ot…

Everyone in the US can bet using his or her smartphone, with the current odds shown up the second the gate is opened. There's no advantage in a private betting machine. Some online betting tools even let you set parameters that place your bet automatically if and only if certain odds are reached, so you don't have to stand there and watch it. Of course, for casual bettors, that's half the fun.

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#62

Actually the most successful parimutuel syndicates and HNWI bet programmatically through API’s. They consistently win and they do not make their money from picking a single winner. They bet on exotic bets that have much higher odds and are easier to box. For instance picking two winners or order of the first three horses. Source: I worked on those APIs to integrate with 20+ exchanges over three companies and 10 years…

The most successful such syndicate in the world is run by a purported billionaire by the name of Zeljko Ranogajec. He made most of his money beating horse racing. Here’s a fascinating article on him and his exploits:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australia...

Re: My journey applying AI to horse racing

#63
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

scottlocklin didnt say horse racing is understudied. his sources are specific to harness racing.

Parimutuel betting works the same way regardless of what you're betting on. It could be thoroughbreds, harness racing, or jai alai. Technically, you can offer parimutuel wagering on anything, even football or car races.

Sure, but the various features which make a harness race predictable are unlikely to make other kinds of horse race predictable. Sorta like Steve Skienna's jai alai system is unlikely to work on horse races.
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