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We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

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Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most typical way to profit from this, is to have quite a bit of ETC, and then sell it on an exchange or buy something expensive. This transaction would then end up on the block chain, and eventually be considered secure / part of history. Privately, you are building a chain where said transaction did _not_ occur. Because your hash rate is high enough, you are generating blocks at at least the pace of the public c…

Of course, doing this only makes sense if what you gain outweighs the costs of performing such an attack. If the hardware to accomplish the attack is available for your use, the cost of the mining should net out at zero-ish, because you're also getting the rewards for doing the mining. So the net cost of the attack is just the overhead for the mining hardware. Coincidentally, economist Alex Tabarrok just wrote about…

Yes, I would guess that coins sharing an algorithm with a much bigger brother (in hash rate) are particularly susceptible. Of course, the perceived security and valuation of many coins is somewhat tied together, and I can imagine many miners would avoid attacks on other (smaller brother) chains because they might end up hurting themselves as well. But it only takes one (big enough) actor to do serious damage to a smaller brother coin, possibly looking to gain financially, or maybe just to undermine its credibility/valuation. To do the latter, I would say continuously forcing many large reorgs is the way to go.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can there be coins with $5M+ market cap where the cost of a 51% attack is $3.00 ?? In an efficient market, thieves should just immediately attack that. Or is the benefit too low?

Because the market cap isn't truly $5M. That figure uses the naive calculation of "whatever coins sold for most recently times the total number of outstanding coins". But if you tried to sell some significant fraction of the outstanding coins then the sale price would plummet, and you'd never actually reach $5M total. The actual depth of the order book at any given moment isn't close to $5M, plus a lot of outstanding…

> But if you tried to sell some significant fraction of the outstanding coins then the sale price would plummet, and you'd never actually reach $5M total.

Yes. But it's the same for the market cap of company stocks. So saying that "the market cap isn't truly $5M" is missing the point a bit. The market cap can truly be $5M without $5M having been invested. That's just not what market cap means.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#63
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the market cap isn't truly $5M. That figure uses the naive calculation of "whatever coins sold for most recently times the total number of outstanding coins". But if you tried to sell some significant fraction of the outstanding coins then the sale price would plummet, and you'd never actually reach $5M total. The actual depth of the order book at any given moment isn't close to $5M, plus a lot of outstanding…

> But if you tried to sell some significant fraction of the outstanding coins then the sale price would plummet, and you'd never actually reach $5M total. Yes. But it's the same for the market cap of company stocks. So saying that "the market cap isn't truly $5M" is missing the point a bit. The market cap can truly be $5M without $5M having been invested. That's just not what market cap means.

No, this is precisely why trying to calculate the market cap of a crypto-currency is pointless.

A company is a productive enterprise, that produces value for you, if you sit on shares of it. Something like bitcoin is a purely speculative instrument, that produces no value if you sit on it.

The market cap for a company is an imprecise proxy for all expected revenues, discounted by time[1]. The market cap for a currency is an imprecise proxy for... How much you can hope to unload it to the next fool. [2]

[1] At least, it's supposed to be.

[2] Yes, yes, we know, Bitcoin is useful for transferring money. This usefulness is completely disjointed from its market cap. It doesn't matter if it's $20/coin, or $20,000/coin, if you're using it to send money.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#64

An update from eth classic amount linked in that thread: (not sure what they mean by selfish mining...) Regarding the recent mining events. We may have an idea of where the hashrate came from. ASIC manufacturer Linzhi confirmed testing of new 1,400/Mh ethash machines #projectLavaSnow - Most likely selfish mining (Not 51% attack) - Double spends not detected (Miner dumped bocks)

Coinbase mentions a few reorgs without double spends, and a quite a few more with: https://blog.coinbase.com/ethereum-classic-etc-is-currently-...

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#65

This is inevitable. Ethereum Classic (ETC) isn't the only currency such attacks have been successful on. The site https://www.crypto51.app/ puts the cost of running a 51% attack on ETC at ~$5k per hour. The incentive for running these attacks for profit becomes higher as the market cap of these coins increases, making long-term 'investment' in these coins nonsensical.

Really surprised by the relatively low cost of attacking Bitcoin with 51% for one hour - claimed to be about $300k.

Is this number for real? I can think of many actors for whom this is just small change, and who might have incentive to break trust in the Bitcoin network by successfully performing such an attack.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#66

What does this mean? (Not all of us know a whole lot about how crypto works or why this is good or bad and what it means for our investments)

(This is a very basic run down of what I understand to occur. There are places where I omit steps and oversimplify, but I THINK it's pretty accurate. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.)

Mining is basically the way that everyone agrees a transaction is valid - you have a bunch of unrelated entities saying, "Yes, according to my copy of the ledger, the sending party has X dollars and wants to send Y dollars, and the two parties agreed." (It's much more nuanced, but this is the easiest way to summarize it.)

If someone said, "I'm going to send AccountB 100ETC from AccountA," but AccountA only had 50ETC then a miner would see that and deny the transaction (wouldn't add it as a valid block to the blockchain). In reality, there are several places that the transaction should be thrown out, but there are obvious ways around those, and every transaction incurs a fee, so trying to just flood the network is costly. More importantly, several miners have to agree that the transaction is valid. When sending bitcoin, you'll see a number of "confirmations," which is the number of miners that marked the transaction as valid. You can see this when sending coins between two exchanges, you'll see that the receiving exchange won't allow you to use the coins for trading until you hit, say, 30 confirmations.

The problem with this model for smaller projects is that those "confirmations" by unrelated miners can't be trusted if one person/group owns more than half the miners. I left out the idea of wallets/nodes to bring this up here. Every "full" wallet (or node) has a copy of the blockchain and does some cursory checks on transactions before broadcasting them to the network. Miners then package a bunch of transactions in a block and send this to the network - "Here is my version of block X. It should be added to the blockchain as block X for everyone." The miners then have to expend some effort to verify that the block is actually the block they think it is and contains valid transactions. When the miners confirm a block, it eventually propagates to all the miners and nodes, and competing blocks by other miners, which might have contained some of the same transactions are discarded. It doesn't mean the other blocks were fake, just that the chosen block reached "consensus" of the miners and can be trusted to be valid. (I realize this leaves lots of open questions, but I'm limiting the scope to OP's question.)

Consensus is the big problem in 51% attacks. If someone controls more than half the mining power, they can reach consensus on blocks faster than legit miners and add whatever they want to the blockchain that is distributed to all the other miners and nodes. That means they can add/delete transactions or manipulate existing ones to, say, change the receiving address to their own, and everyone that receives those blocks will accept the outcome.

This is why decentralization is so important to cryptocurrency. There's a level of necessary chaos that keeps the network honest. It is possible to roll back the blockchain to a previous version, but that also means that transactions in all blocks that followed must be rolled back as well. If the rogue party simply accumulated currency, that's not a big deal, since all other transactions would still be valid. But, if they immediately turned around and traded them for other coins, you start to see the problem. On top of that, if ETC was more "robust", the news would (and currently is) send the price into a nosedive, which creates an opportunity to legitimately buy it very low and profit from the recovery. That's not going to be the case here.

All this being said, Ethereum Classic was kinda declared dead a month ago when the development group halted operations, so anyone with any significant amount of ETC should have sold off by now. This attack will probably be the final nail in the coffin.

TL;DR - In the end, the state of the blockchain comes down to a simple majority of miners agreeing that a block (a group of transactions) is valid. At 51%, you can force everyone to see invalid transactions as valid. ETC development ceased around a month ago, so no one that follows it should be holding any now, but people blindly trading for profit will get a nasty surprise.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#67
post #3

Amazing, this blockchain technology really just keeps on giving. I have to say, it's quite entertaining to watch. It's pretty much a car crash happening in slow motion at this point. At least it provides something else to nerd joke about by the watercooler that isn't brexit for once.

That's what it was like in 2016. I remember seeing the headline for the DAO hack on HN back then and thinking "Wow, good thing I didn't invest in this Ethereum thing". Someone had told me about it in 2015, I took a quick glance and passed thinking "Looks like a scam." Then 2017 happened and the joke was on me. Then 2018 happened and the joke was on them again.

New technologies are always shitshows when they get started. I remember DoubleClick ads hanging every copy of Netscape they ran on, ActiveX controls that could pwn your computer just by viewing a webpage, and unusable college Internet because the SQL Slammer worm had infected 50% of computers on campus and would reinfect anything as soon as it was plugged back in. The last was in 2003, 14 years after the Internet was introduced - put on the Bitcoin timeline, that's 4 years in the future, assuming cryptocurrency is adopted as fast as the Internet (and there're good reasons to believe it won't be).

The thing about disruptive technologies is that people continue to use them despite how shitty the technology is - they're so desperate for a solution that they put up with a solution that basically doesn't work.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#68

This is inevitable. Ethereum Classic (ETC) isn't the only currency such attacks have been successful on. The site https://www.crypto51.app/ puts the cost of running a 51% attack on ETC at ~$5k per hour. The incentive for running these attacks for profit becomes higher as the market cap of these coins increases, making long-term 'investment' in these coins nonsensical.

If you're not on the largest coin for any particular interchangeable hashing algorithm then you're susceptible to these attacks, as people from a larger coin could simply turn their hardware against you and take you out. That means: For SHA256^2-specific hardware, Bitcoin (the real one, not Cash, Gold, or SV), for scrypt, Litecoin, and for anything mined on GPUs, Ethereum (not Classic).

A defense against this is merged mining (e.g. Dogecoin and Litecoin, Namecoin and Bitcoin).

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#69

This is inevitable. Ethereum Classic (ETC) isn't the only currency such attacks have been successful on. The site https://www.crypto51.app/ puts the cost of running a 51% attack on ETC at ~$5k per hour. The incentive for running these attacks for profit becomes higher as the market cap of these coins increases, making long-term 'investment' in these coins nonsensical.

If you're not on the largest coin for any particular interchangeable hashing algorithm then you're susceptible to these attacks, as people from a larger coin could simply turn their hardware against you and take you out. That means: For SHA256^2-specific hardware, Bitcoin (the real one, not Cash, Gold, or SV), for scrypt, Litecoin, and for anything mined on GPUs, Ethereum (not Classic).

people from a larger coin could simply turn their hardware against you and take you out.

Only at the expense of leaving their coin more vulnerable to a similar attack.

Re: We can confirm that there was a successful 51% attack on Ethereum Classic

#70

This is inevitable. Ethereum Classic (ETC) isn't the only currency such attacks have been successful on. The site https://www.crypto51.app/ puts the cost of running a 51% attack on ETC at ~$5k per hour. The incentive for running these attacks for profit becomes higher as the market cap of these coins increases, making long-term 'investment' in these coins nonsensical.

How can there be coins with $5M+ market cap where the cost of a 51% attack is $3.00 ?? In an efficient market, thieves should just immediately attack that. Or is the benefit too low?

Because in order to 51% attack someone has to accept a huge payment in that coin.
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