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Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#61

Post by candiodari »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #48
hnauz wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be better if they gave incentives to their own for having children.

Why would that be better? If that worked, it will take 20 to 30 years to see any improvement in the workforce, but will cost a lot up-front. However, financial incentives have never worked. In fact, I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. The only way that might work would be to discourage women's education, which of course nobody wants (I hope...). Children are massively…

This attitude is referred to as "eating your seedcorn" and ... well good luck with that.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#62

Post by untog »

asianthrowaway wrote: post #51
bayesian_horse wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would that be better? If that worked, it will take 20 to 30 years to see any improvement in the workforce, but will cost a lot up-front. However, financial incentives have never worked. In fact, I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. The only way that might work would be to discourage women's education, which of course nobody wants (I hope...). Children are massively…

Because immigrants are here to stay. This will forever change the demographic composition of Japan. I think one only has to look at Europe to see that mass immigration of low skilled labor from foreign cultures does a lot of harm in the long run.

Europe has had mass migration for hundreds of years, and hasn't suffered from it. The whole idea of Europe being invaded is overblown nonsense.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#63

Post by [deleted] »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #56
reustle wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tax for _not_ having babies? I don't think that will go over so well...

People in the US are taxed for _not_ having babies and no one is taking to the streets over it. If you have a child, you get a tax deduction (or credit? I forget). That is effectively the same as a tax for not having a baby. Someone with a child pays less taxes than someone without.

[deleted]

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#64

Post by DaiPlusPlus »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #49
lotsofpulp wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having had experience in both cultures, I can’t imagine two more opposite cultures. One is extremely deferential to others, the other you have to think about yourself first otherwise you won’t get anywhere. At least in public interactions.

My maybe slightly pessimistic view of Japanese attitudes toward immigration is that they will try to keep the Indians in a state of limbo, ready to deport them at the drop of a hat. Which of course won't work at these kind of numbers, anyway.

Cynically, I note they’ll be easy to spot in a crowd in Tokyo...

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#65

Post by parrot_11 »

sprash wrote: post #60

If the Japanese government wants to do the right thing, all it has to do is to let the population contract even further until Asset prices begin to freefall. Then everything will be affordable again for young Japanese citizens and a good longterm economic outlook for the future is the best thing you can do to stimulate birthrates. If Japan wants to screw it up, it should allow mass immigration. This way asset prices…

I get what you're trying to say and I find it strange that the democrats in the US have hitched their strategy from improving quality of life of people to importing as many low income immigrants as possible who will vote for them.

Makes you think how power hungry they've become.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#66

Post by 300bps »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #56
reustle wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tax for _not_ having babies? I don't think that will go over so well...

People in the US are taxed for _not_ having babies and no one is taking to the streets over it. If you have a child, you get a tax deduction (or credit? I forget). That is effectively the same as a tax for not having a baby. Someone with a child pays less taxes than someone without.

If you have a child, you get a tax deduction (or credit? I forget).

It’s both actually! I get a deduction for each of my kids. Many people also get a tax credit of $1,000 for each of their children. I don’t qualify because of having too high of an income.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/ten-facts-about-the-child-tax-c...

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#67

Post by beerlord »

candiodari wrote: post #53
asianthrowaway wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure to what extent the problem is due to economics and to what extent it's due to culture. I read recently that half of single men in Japan are virgins, which is quite staggering. Lots of Japanese people seem to have simply "dropped out" of the idea of having an intimate relationship, replacing that with video games and pornography. When I lived in Japan, what struck me was how infantile and coddled the whol…

I think one of the main impediments to having children is just having space for them. You cannot have a child in a 40m2 apartment, and more is very hard to get in so many places. Certainly not for the people usually inclined to have babies (ie. the poor). I don't know but Tokyo is probably similar.

Which is a recognised economic phenomenon:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/higher-rent-fewer-babies-housing-...

The last time Japan had a population close to replacement rate was 1974, with the population at 109.5m.

Japan will reach that population again in 2046, so maybe we can hope for a recovery by that stage?

Part of the solution certainly needs to be voluntary Euthanasia for the elderly. If you're above 80 and decide you've lived a good enough life, you should be free to go out on your own terms, even without a terminal disease.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#68

Post by bobthechef »

InGodsName wrote: post #13
hrktb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A whole slice of Japanese workers’ have life that squarely fall in “poor and dull”. The overworking cliche is only true to an extent, but still working poor people are plenty and their number rising could arguably be the main factor in the population demographic change. “I don’t make enough money to build a family” is a very prevalent sentiment looking around IRL and on social media, and seems to be corroborated by t…

I don't think it works like that. My overworked friends don't feel that helpless. They can eat out anytime, go to any concert they desire, buy any gadget. They feel secure and safe, they work hard only due to expectation and societal pressure but a few many are self driven And they don't think like ohhh we don't have capacity to have kids. They infact say they can have kids anytime they wish and they aren't missing o…

Which illustrates the disgusting superficiality and emptiness of those people.

I once listened to a lecture where the ethos of consumerism was blamed for the paradox of low birth rates among higher earners over lower earners, that is, you don't find that happening in non-consumerist societies. The reason was that higher earners were more likely to be keeping up with the Jones' and thus preferred to spend their extra income on buying crap and showing off. This tendency might actually be reversed among very high earners who can afford to do both. (FYI, the cost of having an additional child in a traditional society is actually cheaper as you have more children.)

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#69

Post by beerlord »

eeZah7Ux wrote: post #21

In a world with 7.7 billion people, why are declining birth rates almost always described as problem?

Because the population is decreasing in high-IQ countries, where the vast, vast majority of humanity's economic, scientific and cultural output is generated, and increasing in low-IQ countries, which are typically stricken by famine, warfare, poor human rights (particularly for women) and foreign aid reliance.
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