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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

nytimes.com

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Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#61

Post by elsonrodriguez »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

It seems to me we are truly and globally fucked: 1. There were just massive protests and riots in France (a relatively ecologically-aware country) due to an increase in the diesel tax of about 8 cents a liter meant to help wean the country off carbon. As a result of the riots, the tax was cancelled. 2. Current US administration is going 180 degrees in the other direction, i.e. doing everything it can to support coal.…

It's not just China and India. It's nations in Africa that are prime for (re)industrialization.

Keep an especially close eye on African countries in which China has made infrastructure investments. Those roads, railways, and ports will be pumping raw resources in the near future, but I'd be willing to bet that eventually export of finished goods will be a major component as China's labor force demands more higher wages.

At that point Africa's carbon emissions graph will start to look very familiar.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#62

Post by cwperkins »

Part of me hopes there's some strange conspiracy theory like the US is sitting on some amazing new battery tech, but won't release it until the trade spat with China is over with. I know I sound like a loon, but a revolutionary new durable battery will be the holy grail of this century.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#63

Post by kazen44 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #38
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

It seems to me we are truly and globally fucked: 1. There were just massive protests and riots in France (a relatively ecologically-aware country) due to an increase in the diesel tax of about 8 cents a liter meant to help wean the country off carbon. As a result of the riots, the tax was cancelled. 2. Current US administration is going 180 degrees in the other direction, i.e. doing everything it can to support coal.…

The protests in france are a little more nuanced than a simple reaction to a new gas tax. They are in the context of a larger budget debate. There is an air in all western countries that the highest earners aren't being treated fairly. New policies that favor the rich have become a norm. The people of france are rebelling against that trend, as they have done dozens of times in France's past. The graph in this story…

also, the riots in france (and other european nations aswell by now) is mostly about the fact that the economy is doing great, but wages and funding of the social safety net have not been increased.

People are mainly angry because after a decade of austerity, they are not getting the spoils of a good economy.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#64

Post by sandworm101 »

paulmd wrote: post #56
sandworm101 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The protests in france are a little more nuanced than a simple reaction to a new gas tax. They are in the context of a larger budget debate. There is an air in all western countries that the highest earners aren't being treated fairly. New policies that favor the rich have become a norm. The people of france are rebelling against that trend, as they have done dozens of times in France's past. The graph in this story…

Also, a reform of the school system means that fewer students will be going to college, so the students are out protesting that too. Really these protests are an amalgamation of various groups that have almost nothing in common with each other other than being upset with the current government. And some of the goals are even opposing... presumably those students want something done about climate change, but they've j…

I also would not underestimate the significance of the yellow jackets. They symbolize many things beyond the gas tax paid by drivers. They are a thing that the government says you have to carry in your car. They are a thing that can be inspected by a cop that pulls you over. They are also the symbol of someone who actually drives a car. Driving a car is where people are most policed by their governments (see all traffic laws). Anyone who has ever been pulled over by a cop, or saddled with a massive parking ticket, understands what it means to be a driver as opposed to someone like a politician who is driven.

(One of the big dislikes of Hillary Clinton is/was her admission that it had she hadn't driven a vehicle in decades. That means something to everyone on the political spectrum.)

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#65

Post by usaar333 »

paulsutter wrote: post #33
mberning wrote: post #28

That is a pretty staggering amount of uncertainty. The US for example looks like it could be anywhere from 0.5% to 4.5%. That is something I would like to know with more certainty before undertaking any major public policies. From a simple triage standpoint it would seem that focusing on developing economies would hold the most promise. China and India are the likely leaders and given the population and current state…

From a simple standpoint massive multigigaton reductions are needed in all sectors and countries. Which was true 10 years ago, 5 years ago, and remains true now with little change. Fracking has been pretty much the biggest net reduction in carbon (nat gas has half the emissions of coal). So far solar, wind, etc has made little dent. This isn’t a political issue and politicizing it by claiming sudden urgency is an err…

> Major changes are needed yesterday, and so far neither party in the US has ever proposed anything resembling the scale of change needed.

No, but at least Democrats proposed and passed something.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Clean_Energy_and_Se...

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#66

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

whatshisface wrote: post #46
rootusrootus wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded of Stein's Law. It is not exactly right, but it is how I feel this will likely play out. At least if reduction in carbon emissions is the only card we have in our hand. I.e. we will stop emitting carbon when (for all practical purposes) we run out. Not before. At some point I do expect people will start having more serious discussions about how much climate engineering we are willing to undertake. Certai…

Option two, we can stop emitting when it becomes obsolete. That means two unforeseen technical miracles could save us, as opposed to just the one of climate engineering that works. I bet it would be a lot easier to organize a "moon landing" program for fusion or something like it than it would be to talk the entire world into reducing economic activity.

Actually, I think this is a great point. I think the only thing that will keep us from being "truly and globally fucked" is if we develop economical fusion power in the next 30 years or so.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#67

Post by cbkeller »

fromthestart wrote: post #21
cbkeller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming from a geologist, you're exactly right!

As a fellow geoscientist, you especially should be aware of the dating limitations of rock and fossil records. We simply do not have the resolution currently to know whether this kind of warming speed is truely unprecedented. Hell - a huge part of petroleum exploration is understanding conditions of the surface during deposition of sediment. We're lucky to get 10Ma uncertainty for 100Ma old formations. I've witnessed…

> We're lucky to get 10Ma uncertainty for 100Ma old formations.

Maybe a few decades ago. Ironically, much of my background is in U-Pb CA-ID-TIMS geochronology. The current state of the art in my community is between 0.05 and 0.01 % two-sigma relative, i.e. 10 to 50 ka at 100 Ma. To give one example, the chronology of the P-T extinction (the big one) is now constrained to the decamillenial level even though it we're talking about an extinction 252 million years ago [1].

Of course, 50,000 years is still quite long compared to modern anthropogenic effects, but the timescale bias of the geologic record is neither poorly known nor taboo (there are well cited papers about this exact problem [2]).

I should probably also reiterate that many records of interest to climate science are (1) much younger, so absolute precision is much higher than at 252 Ma and (2) may come with a built-in relative chronometer with annual resolution, as in ice cores, tree rings, varves, and some speleothems.

Imputing incompetence or bad faith to the entire field of climate science is not productive. While I'm not a climate scientist myself, I know many of them, and find them to be both honest and competent.

[1] http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3316.short [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5227093/

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#68

Post by alphabettsy »

rdm_blackhole wrote: post #58
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

It seems to me we are truly and globally fucked: 1. There were just massive protests and riots in France (a relatively ecologically-aware country) due to an increase in the diesel tax of about 8 cents a liter meant to help wean the country off carbon. As a result of the riots, the tax was cancelled. 2. Current US administration is going 180 degrees in the other direction, i.e. doing everything it can to support coal.…

Protesters are not protesting just the taxes on fuel. They protest the fact that taxing fuel is not the solution if you don't provide an alternative mode of transport. Some people live far from the cities, Should they be the ones paying for everybody else and let the people living in the cities without a car not pay their fair share of the burden? The problem with taxing the diesel is that you are telling people that…

I understand your argument, but the people living in rural areas are bigger contributors to pollution since they tend to drive more and live in single family dwellings. Why shouldn’t the actual road users pay the cost of using the road? I agree any industry using fuel should pay an equal tax though.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#69

Post by usaar333 »

jf22 wrote: post #40

I know cryptocurrencies are popular here but IMHO crypto should be immediately banned before they start generating more and more emissions.

Does that have to be the case? Crypto mining can be done in areas with surplus hydroelectric power that can't be efficiently distributed elsewhere.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#70

Post by aaron_m04 »

jf22 wrote: post #40

I know cryptocurrencies are popular here but IMHO crypto should be immediately banned before they start generating more and more emissions.

That's a very ignorant opinion, considering that proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies have insignificant emissions.
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