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SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

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Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#61

This scares me a bit. The idea of having LEO internet is great and all, but the idea of quadrupling the number of functioning satellites, all operating in different orbits but at a similar altitude seems incredibly dangerous to me. The article mentions the movie Gravity, which is a bit unrealistic as it portrays multiple large bodies in orbit all being at about the same altitude (which isn't the case in reality). Tha…

This is a well informed answer to your question:

https://www.quora.com/Why-dont-satellites-crash-into-each-ot...

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#62
post #5
post #3

Does anyone have any context on what sort of internet speeds satellite internet has been benchmarked to provide. I can't imagine the latency being anywhere near good enough to do many of the high bandwidth things people use the internet for today.

You're conflating bandwidth and latency. Not much needs both high bandwidth and low latency. The latency has the potential to be better than the current internet backbone when going intercontinental due to straighter paths, but it'll be higher when going to your local AWS, probably. Bandwidth is anyone's guess.

I was actually just curious about bandwidth, I've only ever used satellite internet through the context of being on an airplane, and was curious if satellite internet was good at supporting things like netflix.

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#63

This scares me a bit. The idea of having LEO internet is great and all, but the idea of quadrupling the number of functioning satellites, all operating in different orbits but at a similar altitude seems incredibly dangerous to me. The article mentions the movie Gravity, which is a bit unrealistic as it portrays multiple large bodies in orbit all being at about the same altitude (which isn't the case in reality). Tha…

I'm guessing LEO satellites has a much shorter orbital decay so more likely to burn up in the atmosphere is something goes wrong.

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#64

According to Bloomberg, since there are currently fewer than 2,000 operating satellites, SpaceX’s new additions will dominate space. This number surprised me, much lower than I expected. Looked it up and I'm seeing varying numbers, but generally in the 1k-4k ballpark.

This is for operating satellites, but the Air Force currently tracks ~21,000 pieces of debris in orbit (about anything larger than a baseball) around the earth.

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#65
post #56

This video [0] really puts into perspective what SpaceX is trying to accomplish. Incredible stuff if they pull it off! [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=AdKNCBrkZQ4...

FYI, the constellation was revised and an updated video was made. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEIUdMiColU&feature=youtu.be

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#66

This scares me a bit. The idea of having LEO internet is great and all, but the idea of quadrupling the number of functioning satellites, all operating in different orbits but at a similar altitude seems incredibly dangerous to me. The article mentions the movie Gravity, which is a bit unrealistic as it portrays multiple large bodies in orbit all being at about the same altitude (which isn't the case in reality). Tha…

These types of satellites typically sag out of orbit and burn up after a few years

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#67

According to Bloomberg, since there are currently fewer than 2,000 operating satellites, SpaceX’s new additions will dominate space. This number surprised me, much lower than I expected. Looked it up and I'm seeing varying numbers, but generally in the 1k-4k ballpark.

SpaceX satellites will be much, much smaller though.

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#69

This scares me a bit. The idea of having LEO internet is great and all, but the idea of quadrupling the number of functioning satellites, all operating in different orbits but at a similar altitude seems incredibly dangerous to me. The article mentions the movie Gravity, which is a bit unrealistic as it portrays multiple large bodies in orbit all being at about the same altitude (which isn't the case in reality). Tha…

Well since it's in LEO and since the sats will have been destroyed or damaged they won't be able to maintain their orbits, so the debris orbit will be decaying from the moment of the incident and should re-enter in a matter of a few months. The scenario I'm sure will be simulated by numerous people/orgs by the time this project is in full swing.

Re: SpaceX just got FCC approval to launch 7,518 satellites

#70

i think the price should be around 35 dollars per month

For a ~$10 billion constellation with an individual satellite lifespan of 5 years, the system would need to average ~$170 million per month for something resembling break-even. Current US satellite internet adoption is at 6.7% percent; push that up to 10% so I have some number to work with when accounting for market penetration and the rest of the world, and you’re looking at 32.5 million users, which sets an absolute price floor of $5.25 a month. Give it margins that actually make this remotely profitable and $20 a month for service wouldn't be unrealistic; the upfront costs of the uplink would probably still kill you though.

Edit: Did some more research on competitors. It seems ViaSat currently has 1.1 billion invested in its 2 active GEOs, plus whatever’s currently going in their next generation constellation. Their bargain bin plan goes for $70 a month (fun fact, they too pull the 3 month deal BS landline ISPs do) up to $200 a month. Since it only has a single real competitor it probably services 3% of the US population, so with their midplan of $150 a month over 9.75 million users into a satellite constellation with a lifespan of 8 years they are charging in the neighborhood of %12,700 over their satellite breakeven (1.46 billion month revenue over 11.46 million per month payback).

Bringing that over to a $10 billion constellation with much more premium internet, yikes.

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