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Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

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Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#61

Post by adwhit »

exceptione wrote: post #57
adwhit wrote: post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

> It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. If you mean by "to end" something like "to extinguish" than I think this hyperbole is enormous. If you mean by "to end" that the civilization will change, than there is nothing new under the sun. If I look at pictures from 19th century, which is very recent, I am always baffled at how much hav…

It's pretty clear from context that I meant things will change catastrophically for the worse. Extinction unlikely within 60 years, though.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#62

Post by lixtra »

adwhit wrote: post #55
lixtra wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Each generation faces annihilation. Just because humans survived so far - and it has been close [1] - doesn't mean it was a lot of luck involved. [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/h...

Well that's OK then (???)

Yes, learn to accept your mortality. Long term the human race will die.

Some think by robots taking over.

Some think by earth getting as warm as it has not been a long time much faster than ever (although live was thriving at that time).

Some think a bit meteor might hit us or a super volcano could erupt and cause 100 years of darkness.

Some think a global nuclear war will end us.

Some think humans will just procreate till they overuse the resources of the planet and people just starve.

And so on. Accidentally I ordered above by most likely end of the human life as we know it.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#63

Post by lordfoom »

qubax wrote: post #60
adwhit wrote: post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

> It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. The reason why so many people don't take climate change seriously is because of extreme hyperbole like this. Climate change is outdoing even the "peak oil" craze of the past. If you think civilization is going to end in 40 years ( 2 generations ), then you leave no room for debate. > A rational society would think about nothing else. No. A rat…

>If you think civilization is going to end in 40 years ( 2 generations ), then you leave no room for debate.

And yet, here you are, debating him, while the world gets hotter and the weather more extreme.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#64

Post by DennisP »

exceptione wrote: post #57
adwhit wrote: post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

> It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. If you mean by "to end" something like "to extinguish" than I think this hyperbole is enormous. If you mean by "to end" that the civilization will change, than there is nothing new under the sun. If I look at pictures from 19th century, which is very recent, I am always baffled at how much hav…

A while back I read Six Degrees by Mark Lynas, who read 3000 peer-reviewed papers on the effects of climate change and summarized them, one chapter per degree, with extensive references.

My takeaway from that book was that three degrees was pretty terrible but life would go on, but at four degrees modern civilization would have a hard time surviving. Go all the way to six and there won't be many humans left on the planet.

I'm not saying we'll get to four degrees in two generations, but at the rate we're going we'll be well on the way, and enough feedbacks will have kicked in by then to make it inevitable.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#65

Post by gdubs »

paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

Humans are tool makers. Tools are present in some of our earliest known ancestors. They shaped us as much as we shaped them, evolutionarily.

The problem we face is that, in general, people are scientifically illiterate — including, crucially, policy makers.

Our way forward almost certainly depends on technological solutions — and at the same time they remain our greatest threat.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#66

Post by gdubs »

pranau wrote: post #30
puranjay wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) Your perceptions seem to be colored by your experience in the first world. Statistically, technology-fueled development has helped lift literally billions of people out of acute poverty. When I was young in the 90s, my mom would ask me to give any spare food we had left to the homeless beggars we saw on the s…

In my experience (as an Indian), they ask money primarily for alcohol, cigarettes or drugs and buy food from whatever's left over. They are still not what one would call "nourished" and are pretty malnourished in most instances.

Which is why policy should be based on data and not anecdotes.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#67

Post by adwhit »

lixtra wrote: post #62
adwhit wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that's OK then (???)

Yes, learn to accept your mortality. Long term the human race will die. Some think by robots taking over. Some think by earth getting as warm as it has not been a long time much faster than ever (although live was thriving at that time). Some think a bit meteor might hit us or a super volcano could erupt and cause 100 years of darkness. Some think a global nuclear war will end us. Some think humans will just procreat…

As a creature capable of empathy, I am quite upset at the thought of incalculable suffering we are condemning future generations to just because we can't be bothered not to.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#68

Post by 706f6f70 »

mattnewport wrote: post #42

What I'm most excited for is Demis using his AI to finally finish his Infinite Polygon Engine. I expect he'll get to that right after solving mass inequality and creating world peace.

AI also means we may finally get to ask the last question[1]. Reading that first sentence, it looks like we may actually be ahead of schedule.

---

http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#69

Post by zepto »

adwhit wrote: post #67
lixtra wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, learn to accept your mortality. Long term the human race will die. Some think by robots taking over. Some think by earth getting as warm as it has not been a long time much faster than ever (although live was thriving at that time). Some think a bit meteor might hit us or a super volcano could erupt and cause 100 years of darkness. Some think a global nuclear war will end us. Some think humans will just procreat…

As a creature capable of empathy, I am quite upset at the thought of incalculable suffering we are condemning future generations to just because we can't be bothered not to.

I agree with the first part, but who is doing this ‘just because they can’t be bothered not to’?

Last time I looked most people weren’t idling their time away in a stress free paradise.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#70

Post by ThomPete »

adwhit wrote: post #49

I always find it strange to hear people talk about climate change as if it is some sort of tricky challenge we need to solve, like improving education or curing cancer. It is a 'problem' of completely different magnitude. It is on track to end civilization as we know it within two generations. A rational society would think about nothing else. Our children will be astonished and mystified - and furious - to see all t…

Humans have had to deal with climate change for all our existence and to think that the only problem with regards to the climate is human-made illustrates how absurd the discussion have become.

The biggest opportunity to solve, whatever affect humans have is through technological progress, not beliving humans basic instinct and behavior is somehow going to change. Humans are both rational and irrational, mostly irrational. There is no such thing as a rational society it's simply not how nature works.

Humans won't change, our kids are some of the biggest users of the technology we developed and they will also be both benefitters and further developers of ways to deal with the never ending challenges nature provides us.

So yes we actually do need to think about climate change as something that always happens to us and then do something about those changes.

Blaming humans for not being rational is the least useful thing to do.

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