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The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

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Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#61
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$600 million in venture capital... For dog walking. It's even more stupid than Pets.com because at least Pets.com was an ecommerce site so it could scale out. It doesn't really matter that Asia, Africa and Latin America have all come on line (I would bet that the 1999 internet was primarily Europe/US given its roots) if you're selling dog walking in California and New York now, does it?

It does sound like a particularly "Silicon Valley" style of silly, but it doesn't seem outrageous. There are around 80 million pet dogs in the United States. Let's say the success case for one of these companies is to capture 10% of that market -- 8 million dogs in need of walking every day or two or three. Let's say they can take in $5/month in revenue from 10-30 walks (it's probably more than this). That's almost h…

> 10% of that market -- 8 million dogs in need of walking every day

Although 10% may, ultimately, be a good estimate, it's a bit misleading to equate all owned dogs to the whole "market".

At the very least, you'd want to exclude rural dogs, who, presumably, have plenty of outdoor access. Probably pro-rating this for some definitions of "suburban" would make sense, too.

I'm not sure how multi-dog households would work in terms of pricing for a dog-walking service, if an owner wanted them all walked at once, but it seems better to count dog-owning households rather than dogs.

Most importantly (and this could obviate the need for any of the other filtering), the real market is only those owners who can afford to pay $20-$30 for a walk. Of those 80 million dogs, how many are owned by people who can afford an extra $2k-$11k/yr on top of basic pet care expenses (<$1k/yr)?

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make blanket statements like that without looking at the numbers and the unit economics. Just because you think walking a dog is trivial doesn't mean that there isn't a huge need for a service like this. A marketplace that can capture a majority of the marketshare in the US in the dog walking category will be minting money. Some of the back of the envelope calculations posted here easily show this. Analogie…

Pets.com IS succeeding today. It’s called Chewy.

Acquired by Petsmart for $3.35B no less! (After raising $451m in VC).

Great outcome, and great example of what I was trying to convey in my post.

People still underestimate the headroom that the internet has to transform how we live and behave in the world. The last 20 years was really only the beginning.

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#63
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the idea that one treat living, sentient beings to be owned and treated as property That's exactly how the law treats animals. They are property of their owner.

Given the history of the U. S. with regards to the ownership of living beings, I'm sure you'll understand if an appeal to the law doesn't get you very far with me.

Until animals can represent themselves in a court, they’ll need to rely on owners to defend their rights.

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#64
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not saying you don't have a good source. I am saying these numbers are not going to be exact. EX: The 2017-2018 APPA National Pet Owners Survey https://americanpetproducts.org/Uploads/MemServices/GPE2017_... Overall dog ownership in the US at 48% +/- 4.4 based on 505 completed surveys. But, that's not nearly enough data to slice things down to 30-40 year olds and worse it's a servery which have dubious accuracy…

But that's not the survey they used. A search on Mintel reveals surveys on pet ownership that seem targeted for consumer research and pet industry (eg: https://store.mintel.com/americas-pet-owners-us-august-2018 and https://store.mintel.com/us-americas-pet-owners-market-repor... ). Their methodology as outlined on their web site ( https://store.mintel.com/mintel-methodology ) and details the quotas they utilize to ge…

First it was 500 dog owners out of ~1000 respondents ~= +/— 4.4%. So, Double that to 2000 people and you can get 3% accuracy on overall per ownership, assuming no systemic bias. But, slice that into 30-39 year olds and you have ~1/7 the data and thus much higher error bars.

Now, if they had sampled ~20,000 people then sure you can slice and dice like that. But slicing data always increases the risk of sampling bias as would anything that targets 30-39 year olds specifically.

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why this means that it's ok to pay someone to care for your child during the day, but not ok to pay someone to take care for your dog during the day.

I didn’t make that claim, but I was pointing out a reason why someone might not equate the two.

Children have two legs, dogs and cats have four.

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make blanket statements like that without looking at the numbers and the unit economics. Just because you think walking a dog is trivial doesn't mean that there isn't a huge need for a service like this. A marketplace that can capture a majority of the marketshare in the US in the dog walking category will be minting money. Some of the back of the envelope calculations posted here easily show this. Analogie…

how many people do you think spend enough money having other people walk their dogs for this to be a profitable venture to the extent of justifying this investment, especially given Silicon Valley startups' incredible propensity to burn money for nothing? This is such a California/New York/London bubble concept, it boggles the mind. It compares to Juicero because that's another service that no person with a normal in…

I think the reality is that you don't know how big of a market it really is (do you have any numbers you're basing your strong statements on?) and you're projecting your disbelief rather than trying to dig to get to the truth.

If you really want to know the answer, you have to do the work to get to it.

I'm not going to engage with emotional arguments filled with rhetoric like "all the single yuppies who feel bad leaving their dog locked in their $1m/yr closet apartment". It's just not a good use of my time, I'm sorry.

If you want to have a reasonable argument with rough numbers, calculation and analysis of customer behavior, then I'm game. If you just want to specifically convince yourself that walking dogs isn't worth the money that was invested, then it seems you've done a good job of it already and you're not really interested in having a balanced debate.

How big of a market do you think staying in a stranger's spare room is? Your answer a few years ago likely wouldn't have been more than $1 billion globally. AirBnB is a $30B company on the verge of going public.

The internet is not yet done transforming how we live and work. The world you live in 10 years from now will look very different. Economic priorities will look different. The way people behave will be different. And it will all happen faster than at any other point in history.

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how many people do you think spend enough money having other people walk their dogs for this to be a profitable venture to the extent of justifying this investment, especially given Silicon Valley startups' incredible propensity to burn money for nothing? This is such a California/New York/London bubble concept, it boggles the mind. It compares to Juicero because that's another service that no person with a normal in…

I think the reality is that you don't know how big of a market it really is (do you have any numbers you're basing your strong statements on?) and you're projecting your disbelief rather than trying to dig to get to the truth. If you really want to know the answer, you have to do the work to get to it. I'm not going to engage with emotional arguments filled with rhetoric like "all the single yuppies who feel bad leav…

I'm aware that it's a big market. I think my scepticism or strong dislike (which I think caused my initial emotional reaction to the concept) of the very idea is based on:

First, it seems like another instance of very wealthy people in big tech cities living in a bubble. Sure, many people who live in these cities can afford high prices for dog walkers. But that doesn't scale to anywhere beyond these hubs of uber-rich. No-one in middle America, let alone anywhere else outside hyper-wealthy cities, is going to be spending $30/day (I'm talking this number from another comment, I don't know where they got it) to have their dog walked. Assuming that's every weekday, that's at least $600/month. That scales if you ("you" being the founders/investors, not actually you) believe solipsistically that being able to do so is somehow common or even desirable to most people. It's a very yuppie thing to get a dog just to pay someone else to walk it. Even only having a dog walker a fraction of that time would be a huge expense to most people. So it's a service for the already-pampered tech/finance class. Hence, my comparison to the dumpster fire that was Juicero.

Secondly, the investment of $600 million in companies that basically exist to leech off dogwalkers shows me how far some parts of the startup world have veered from "disruptive innovation" towards rent-seeking and middlemanning. Not that this is particularly surprising - I've not particularly enjoyed watching the industry become more cancerous over time. But I guess I still like to think of the industry as if the old idea that startups were going to make the world a better place were true.

Thirdly, even ignoring all that - there seem to be a lot of flaws with the business model. I mean, what's to stop someone just hiring the dogwalker direct after the first time? Why would I trust a complete stranger from a big-brand company to walk my dog, compared to speaking to someone independent? If there's a PR crisis (like, say someone's dog being lost or killed while being walked like in the linked article) that damaged reputation is going to affect every dogwalker under the company umbrella.

I guess overall it seems like $600 million going towards making the world a worse (or more realistically, simply not-better) place.

Now, to answer your actual comments:

> How big of a market do you think staying in a stranger's spare room is? Your answer a few years ago likely wouldn't have been more than $1 billion globally.

It isn't. AirBnB is basically just a independent-contractor villa rental chain now. What % of AirBnB places (or more importantly, AirBnB revenue) are actually people's spare rooms? It seems they've just centralised the market for renting an apartment or house for travel and provided a more visible alternative to staying in a hotel.

> The internet is not yet done transforming how we live and work. The world you live in 10 years from now will look very different. Economic priorities will look different. The way people behave will be different. And it will all happen faster than at any other point in history.

If paying other people to spend time with your dog is the internet revolution we've been working towards, count me out. I thought we were going to be making the world more efficient, scaling up towards closer integration so we could all make smarter decisions and lead better lives. There's some cool stuff going on in that space for sure, but all the money seems to be getting dumped into turning Silicon Valley into assisted living for rich young adults. And that's coming from a rich young adult (though I don't live in one of these cities).

Re: The startup world’s cuddly, cutthroat battle to walk your dog

#68
post #34
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I find your second statement a little bizarre. Every once in a while, the Bay Area picks a new phrase that it enters into the public lexicon. "Pet owner" was said to invoke slavery, so "pet guardian" was the new thing you had to say, otherwise face consequence.

I wish people would just stop getting offended so easily. If you want to consider yourself a "pet owner" -- that's fine with me. If you'd rather be a "pet parent" -- more power to you. But to take offense at someone else choosing either one of those for themselves? Fuck off! What the hell do you care? If it hurts your sensibilities then do it differently yourself, but leave other people alone!

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