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Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

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Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#61

Post by bobsil1 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #34
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

I want a car that does that, with a degree of build quality and long term support. I want a BMW electric because I respect BMW. Their cars can be trusted in ways that Teslas cannot. I don't throw cars away when they become uncool. I expect a car bought today to last 15+ years. Any BMW will do that. No Tesla has ever lasted that long. I won't be a tesla customer for at least another decade or two. But I would by a dec…

“Wanted: 15 years of deep learning experience”

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#63

Post by sctb »

jghjg wrote: post #6
d0lph wrote: post #5

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the fact they sell cars makes Tesla a real car company already.

who really buy teslas but soyboys?

If you won't post according to the guidelines we'll ban the account.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#64

Post by manicdee »

athenot wrote: post #11
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

As of now, yes. The 2019 Nissan LEAF is projected to have meet your range requirement. I've had the 2013 and the 2015 models, they are good cars in their own right. If they made them slightly larger (but not an SUV), I'd be getting my 3rd one this year.

Do the Leaf batteries have a decent cooling system, or are you going to run into problems fully charging a battery due to heat?

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#65

Post by gcb0 »

cptskippy wrote: post #54
gcb0 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

like japanese cars couldn't pass US crash tests in the 80s? How well that worked out for US automakers?

You're confusing tenses I think, can't not couldn't. Chinese cars today CAN'T pass safety standards today. That doesn't preclude them form passing in the future. It just means if you bought a Chinese car today and tested it against US safety standards today, it would fail.

the ONLY reason they don't pass today is because they are not exporting to the US today. that argument is pedantic.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#66

Post by spectrum1234 »

sokoloff wrote: post #28
startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> But if it's overvalued then short the stock! To put the disclaimer up front: I have. I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms. As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wild…

2 words. Last one is Musk.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#67

Post by mmt »

_lbaq wrote: post #45
michaelt wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jaguar i-Pace ...which hasn't been released yet. Volkswagen e-Golf ...which has an EPA range of "89 to 125 mi" [1] Renault ZOE ...which has a "likely EPA rating of perhaps 150 miles" [2] and "mandatory battery hire" [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Golf#Volkswagen_e-G... [2] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111560_renault-zoe-sti...

The Zoe (the new 41 kWh) goes around 250 km and the battery hire is not mandatory, but pretty smart in IMO, Renault replaces the battery if its breaks or goes below 75% charge, when you sell the car the status of the battery is a non-issue, there is a road assistance insurance baked into it as well. The fact that you do not own the battery is also reflected in the price of the vehicle, it would take us 8 years to rea…

> The Zoe (the new 41 kWh) goes around 250 km

250km is 155 miles, which is close enough to the 150 miles claimed in the parent comment.

It's also still below the 200 miles requested in the original comment.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#68

Post by mmt »

prostoalex wrote: post #56
pjc50 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The model S costs ninety thousand dollars . That's what's wrong with it.

If you don't do your own maintenance, the 7-year TCO figure (which in the United States is the average length of ownership https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/americans-holding-onto-their... ) can reach or surpass that, especially with some of the premium brands.

> especially with some of the premium brands

I'd venture to guess it's only with the premium brands, and only when buying new (or maybe used-certified) and only with a model with terrible fuel economy.

7 years would be, for the average American, 100k miles. (Assuming that $90k Tesla costs nothing at all to operate...) Even at a generous 35 cents a mile for fuel and maintenance, that leaves $55k for purchase cost, and that may not be exclusively premium-only "make" territory, but at a make like Honda, that's going to be a fancier model.

Take that per mile cost difference down to a more realistic 20 cents ($3.60/G, 30mpg, independent shop for maintenance, no tires or suspension since electric cars need those, too), and now it's $70k, well within premium brand territory.

Residual value of the Tesla is likely to be better, but if it was financed, that cost would be higher, too. I'm not sure how to estimate that.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#69

Post by pwinnski »

gcb0 wrote: post #65
cptskippy wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're confusing tenses I think, can't not couldn't. Chinese cars today CAN'T pass safety standards today. That doesn't preclude them form passing in the future. It just means if you bought a Chinese car today and tested it against US safety standards today, it would fail.

the ONLY reason they don't pass today is because they are not exporting to the US today. that argument is pedantic.

Possibly true. Then again, when the Mini was imported to the US as the Mini Cooper, it had to be bulked up so that the American version is much less-mini than the UK, removing some of its appeal.

I'm sure Chinese companies can produce EV sedans that pass US crash tests, obviously, but can they do so while they remain cheap? We won't know unless and until they try.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#70

Post by dragonwriter »

jcranmer wrote: post #25
startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader. From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming th…

SolarCity was, until fairly recently, the leading residential solar provider (it's a crowded market, so leading doesn't mean a huge market share like it does in, say, the mobile OS market). For cash position reasons they pivoted away from leases, which cost them the lead to Sunrun, because leases are still a big part of the market.
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