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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#61

Post by RobertoG »

nickik wrote: post #53
cahomeown456 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is good as an alternative take: https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-...

Yeah maybe don't start with some snake-oil anti-everything guy. Read the actual literature first and then go to those claiming to know better.

Or better, read some review of the actual literature before investing in a book, to see if it's snake oil. For instance:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752191...

From the cited text: "The question is considered why the economics profession has failed over most of the past century to make any progress concerning knowledge of the monetary system, and why it instead moved ever further away from the truth as already recognised by the credit creation theory well over a century ago. The role of conflicts of interest and interested parties in shaping the current bank-free academic consensus is discussed."

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#62

Post by jeffreyrogers »

matte_black wrote: post #6

This is consistent with what I’ve heard. Seems no one expects a recession until at least 2020 or 2021. Be ready.

Well before that a "market correction" was imminent from about 2013 to mid-to-late 2017 at least, so who knows what'll really happen. But valuations do seem high across the board and we're pretty late in the business cycle, so it seems like we should at least expect lower returns for the foreseeable future.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#63

Post by MrLeap »

komali2 wrote: post #27
dgzl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

I always think of it in disaster tiers. Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds. Recession, you'll want your cash. Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods. Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane,…

First I've heard or thought about stockpiling chemicals for the apocalypse! What an interesting thing to theorycraft about. Here's a few ideas:

Potassium permanganate - A swiss army knife of a chemical. It can be used to clean certain contaminants from water, clean wounds, start fires, and it's cheap as dirt.

Aqua Regia - A mixture of muriatic acid and nitric acid. I can imagine this being useful to smuggle gold through bandit warlord checkpoints. George de Hevesy dissolved a nobel prize medal to hide it from nazis. Acids in general are useful.

Sulfur - Depending on your location, this is the hardest component to obtain for making gunpowder. The other components can be made from pee and cooked wood.

That's all I can think of off the top of my head. Note: I am neither a chemist nor a prepper.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#64

Post by debt »

The language here is interesting. "Wile E Coyote moment" in the abstract looks and feels like a bubble, but he doesn't use the term bubble.

So a sharp correction? But isn't that what a bubble does? Why not just say we're in bubble fueled by artificial growth caused by numerous government subsidies.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#65

Post by pjc50 »

komali2 wrote: post #27
dgzl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

I always think of it in disaster tiers. Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds. Recession, you'll want your cash. Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods. Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane,…

Yeah, there's a very deep end it's possible to go off.

However after this winter's experience where two feet of snow ran the supermarkets out of fresh food, I'm going to keep slightly more food and folding money on hand.

But remember these are long-term processes. Ultimately your connections and community will become important in economic collapses, because they're usually very slow-motion.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#66

Post by maxxxxx »

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame."

That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#67

Post by pg_bot »

wjn0 wrote: post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

Principles of Economics by Greg Mankiw is the intro text at most universities, it's very well written.

[0]: https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Economics-7th-Mankiws/dp/1...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#68

Post by toasterlovin »

CupOfJava wrote: post #16
overcast wrote: post #12

This is just another reminder to always have emergency funds in your bank account, not tied into the markets. Allows you to weather the storm, until things correct themselves.

How does savings in a bank account help you weather inflation?

Being prepared is not an exercise in mutual exclusivity. You prepare for inflation by owning non-cash assets. You prepare for a rapid drop in the value of stocks and real estate by having cash.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#69

Post by partiallypro »

nickik wrote: post #55
joshuaheard wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

Krugman now is a political hack but his earlier work was ok, including his early books.

His early work on trade policy is good, his other stuff is not great

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#70

Post by [deleted] »

Bucephalus355 wrote: post #10

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

[deleted]
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