Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#61

Post by Fins » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:27 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #20

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

Calling Model 3 a luxury vehicle is rather a stretch. Even Model S lacks things Hyundai one third the price has.

While no other company can come close to Tesla in selling half-baked (or altogether nonexistent) stuff to the gullible, packaging Panasonic batteries in an overpriced golf cart isn't something that any company that knows how to actually build cars would be particularly concerned about.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#62

Post by adventured » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:28 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #36

adventured wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

> Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. This is a classic straw man. You've created a fictional persona which you then describe as: > The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. How about we stick to what other posters you're replying to are actuall…

I wasn't attacking the parent or implying that was their bias.

I intentionally structured the response as a point about the extremely wide-spread criticism being directed at Tesla.

This: "The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla"

I inserted "broadly" for exactly that reason. I also intentionally avoided using "you" or similar (re-read what i actually wrote, you should instantly notice my reply is clearly not targeting the parent just based on what words I use), so as to hopefully avoid leading anyone to think I was claiming the parent was the source of that FUD.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#63

Post by jacquesm » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:28 PM UTC

beltex wrote: post #14

jjevanoorschot wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those who didn't already get it, it's an April Fool's joke.

Indeed. Given the number of down votes, either folks didn't catch that, or it's all the short sellers :)

Or maybe it was a lame joke by the CEO of a publicly traded company and as such totally out of order.

That joke might have been funny if Tesla was making 7500 model 3 cars / week.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#64

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

danso wrote: post #48

toomuchtodo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimism isn’t delusional. They’re already making ~192k vehicles a year at their current 3/S/X production rate ( which will only increase ). You would have to be malicious or ignorant to think that can’t be scaled up to NUMMIs previous 350k/year run rate in the next 3-12 months. Disclosure: TSLA shareholder

2017 was its best year, and it produced ~101,000 vehicles: https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/3/16846860/tesla-2017-delive...

I believe he was referring to the NUMMI factory pre-Tesla, which produced about 6000 cars and trucks per week at its peak.

It does seem like Tesla will soon (3-12 months) eclipse that record.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#65

Post by misja111 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

ekrebs wrote: post #8

2,020 is under Elon's 2,500 prediction, but well above the 1,000-1,500 expectations of those shorting the stock (unless the shorts' articles were deliberately misleading, of course). Also, according to the release, those are customer-delivered numbers. Overall, a good trajectory and a sign of long-term health.

Originally Tesla was predicting to produce 5,000 per week in March 2018. The prediction was later downsized to 2,500 and now they didn't even reach that.

Investors have been funding Tesla so far based on all these predictions. I don't see any sign of long-term health here now that both targets have not been met.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#66

Post by nopriorarrests » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:30 PM UTC

joezydeco wrote: post #28

I was next to Model X at a stoplight last night. They look nice from a distance, but when you sit up close you can see where every panel and piece of trim just doesn't line up quite right. Sitting in my cheap little Mazda3, I've never noticed any problem with simple fit-and-finish details like that. I truly hope the Model 3s catch up, but I really think those owners will be in for a world of headaches after delivery.

It's not just owners. In fact, guarantee service can eat a lot of planned margin for TSLA.

Simply put, carmakers sell each car for X and they assume that on average each car will require Y dollars in a free service, and automaker will end up with Z of profits. If Y is severely underestimated, it may hurt the bottom line.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#67

Post by Fins » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:30 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #53

danso wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California). https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling... https://www.theverge.co…

Using one example to represent the industry is the issue in your premise. This list nicely proves my point: How many EVs is Volkswagen selling per year? How many EVs is Subaru selling per year? How many EVs is Fiat selling per year? How many EVs is Ferrari selling per year? How many EVs is Daimler selling per year? How many EVs is Ford selling per year? How many EVs is PSA selling per year? How many EVs is Hyundai Ki…

And how many EVs would Tesla be selling without heavy subsidies and a Musk effect?

Besides, selling a car of Tesla's quality would be embarassing to every company on your list. Well, maybe not Suzuki, but probably to them, too.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#68

Post by dragontamer » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:31 PM UTC

Tesla asked for volunteers to staff the assembly lines last week. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29/tesla-urg...

I personally am bearish on this. If they worked so hard, but only made it to 2000 / week (their goal was 5000/week by December2017. They lowered it to 2500 this past week), then its all just marketing spin to make 2000/week look better, which is still missing their original targets.

Volunteer staff while cutting Model S / Model X production (and moving that staff over to the Model 3 lines) is not sustainable. They could do it for one week to pad out the numbers, but they need real growth to remain solvent over the next year.

Ignoring the 2000/week spurt last week, the other 7000 Model 3 cars were made over the course of 11 weeks. That's roughly 650ish Model3 cars made per week, on the average (when looking at it across the quarter). This is actually less than the 793/week Model 3 they did at the end of Q4.

Bloomberg estimates that Tesla's overall production has grown to 1000/week or maybe a little bit above that, which might be closer to the "sustainable" size (ie: not counting the volunteer staff + spurt last week).

I'd be surprised if Tesla makes 30,000 Model 3s next quarter (which is still grossly below their target of 5000/week by Dec2017).

Tesla NEEDS 5000/week. 2000/week is still very low and unsustainable for this company.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2018-04-03/...

> "Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow," it said.

> "As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines."

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#69

Post by CydeWeys » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:32 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #44

gwbas1c wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…

> Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. That's true, Citroen had a pretty good run with their record of 80,000 pre-orders (it stood for 60 years). But that was before the internet, all of the orders were made in person , they were non-refundable orders and there never was any doubt that Citroen would deliver the cars.

Weren't all (many?) of these Tesla preorders made in person too? I remember lots of news footage of long lines of people standing out in front of Tesla dealerships?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#70

Post by jacquesm » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:33 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #69

jacquesm wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. That's true, Citroen had a pretty good run with their record of 80,000 pre-orders (it stood for 60 years). But that was before the internet, all of the orders were made in person , they were non-refundable orders and there never was any doubt that Citroen would deliver the cars.

Weren't all (many?) of these Tesla preorders made in person too? I remember lots of news footage of long lines of people standing out in front of Tesla dealerships?

https://www.tesla.com/nl_NL/model3/reserve