Earlier quoted context omitted.
You need to know the basic vocabulary. When someone says that two genomes are 95% identical, that has a very precise meaning. You need to know genomes are made of chromosomes, containing long strings built with four letters, that amino-acids are made of groups of three of these letters, and that the possible mutations include deletions and insertions as well as substitutions. Once you know this, the claim is a mathem…
And my point, which you get to at the end of your msg, is that a mathematical or logical error can invalidate a hypothesis regardless of the subject matter of the datapoints being measured. If you say 10 nuclear reactors + 10 nuclear reactors = 25 nuclear reactors. I can prove that wrong mathematically without knowing anything about nuclear reactors. That's all I'm saying-- you don't have to necessarily have to know…
Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
61–70 of 77 posts
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
And my point, which you get to at the end of your msg, is that a mathematical or logical error can invalidate a hypothesis regardless of the subject matter of the datapoints being measured. If you say 10 nuclear reactors + 10 nuclear reactors = 25 nuclear reactors. I can prove that wrong mathematically without knowing anything about nuclear reactors. That's all I'm saying-- you don't have to necessarily have to know…
Basically I think we agree but have slightly different definitions of mathematics and logics. I just think that purely mathematical errors are relatively rare (and hard to observe, since even where formal proofs are given they often skip a lot of steps, and require higher mathematics).
It's more common than you would think.
Math error equals loss of Mars orbiter NASA reported Sept. 30 that it had lost the $125 million Mars Climate Orbiter because the force exerted by the orbiter's thrusters remained in the system of units based on pounds and feet rather than being converted to metric. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1200/is_15_156/ai_571...
A cosmic mistake Mankind's first cosmic message, beamed to the stars on Monday, contains two mathematical errors, it has been revealed. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/353409.stm
Misuse of statistics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
Indeed I agree that there exist a gradient of trust. But it is this that seems to be so difficult for the non-scientific literate to understand. In part I think it's a problem that society seem to use "shown scientifically" for "it's true". If there is one thing that people should learn at school is statistics and the scientific method: a LOT more useful than trigonometry nowadays! However my point is that it's not e…
I agree with most of your points, and the info about the IPCC's inner workings is particularly interesting. And yes, we can't expect the larger part of the public to become sufficiently informed to properly evaluate even the bases of scientific discourse (at least until, as you point out, the educational system changes considerably). My point was directed more at the _intellectually curious_ laypersons (which is, I b…
An excellent point. I would further add that this means there's a great societal benefit to educating a large number of people up to the level of general mathematical and logical understanding and there's concomitant societal cost for failing to have such an educated public. When enough people are willing to believe nonsense, even those who don't believe it suffer.
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Blindly trusting scientists because they're perceived experts, have advanced degrees or are in agreement in large numbers has historically been an unreliable way to judge whether or not something is in fact true." I don't think he is advocating that. Trusting scientists because they use controlled experiment, peer review and other similar tools is quite a different thing than trusting them based on authority.
You may be right (I know little of Simon) but the average person doesn't see the experiment, or peer review. They just see the authority. Just like our ideal legal system, to prove someone guilty it has to be done beyond a level of reasonable doubt. Science should be scrutinized in a similar manor. Often I feel scientists are disproportionately hurt when someone attacks their conclusions. They need to get over their…
I do however agree; many researchers I work with don't understand the benefits of adopting a strong inference approach.
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
You may be right (I know little of Simon) but the average person doesn't see the experiment, or peer review. They just see the authority. Just like our ideal legal system, to prove someone guilty it has to be done beyond a level of reasonable doubt. Science should be scrutinized in a similar manor. Often I feel scientists are disproportionately hurt when someone attacks their conclusions. They need to get over their…
I don't think scientist are so much hurt as lost: when you have years of evidence pointing in one direction, and someone replies with a completely unscientific argument (take a lot of pseudo-science for example) what is he supposed to do? Science has its own epistemological methods. You don't prove something beyond a level of reasonable doubt because that's a) vague, b) really difficult (rarely science proves anythin…
My suggestion as to what the scientist is supposed to do when encountering a completely unscientific argument is below. Please note, I am not trying to respond to any of the other aspects or questions you asked -- this "simple" response became way too long as it is :-)
PREPARE AHEAD OF TIME: A. Learn to communicate. A lot of life is dealing with miscommunication. It seems scientists as a group have the same issue with miscommunication that software developers generally have. This is very important where the science is critical for impacting public policy decisions. Especially, learn to listen, so that the metaphors and analogies that are guiding the incorrect thinking can be ascertained.
B. Expect that as soon as you are using science to advocate for public policy changes scientists will have opposition. Actually, the science part isn't the prereq, it is the "advocate for public policy changes". Lots of groups who advocate for public policy changes get villianized. It sucks, but it should not come as surprise to anyone who enters into that arena. If you (generic) want to be left alone, keep your head low. If you (generic) want to stand up for something -- you will be opposed.
REACT: C. Educate. In my opinion, the scientist is supposed to educate people in a simple a terms as possible. I believe scientists used to view this as part of their duty and I believe it has been something that has been generally lost (fwiw I have a 3 volume set of articles that great scientists such as Einstein and Bohr wrote for lay people that span over two centuries... often the articles were published in newspapers.. I have loaned it out, otherwise, I'd list the set for those interested). To educate the lay people, write articles for news papers or online venues. Engage critics with openness, because in doing so professionalism is shown and confidence is built up.
D. Be respectful. Don't refer to people who disagree as deniers or anti-science or ignorant. Give them the benefit of the doubt. Figure out the faulty metaphors they are employing and reveal them. At the worst, agree to disagree. I have recently encountered a scientist doing exactly this, and have been very impressed with him (and I expect I disagree with him on some fundamental beliefs), but I have contacted him to encourage him in what he is doing, and even sought his feedback on some of my own interests.. because I can trust him to be methodical AND respectful. Respect opens up the possibility for long term dialogue. Also, keep in mind that your audience isn't only the person asking questions or postulating absurd theories. It includes the people who are undecided watching the debate (or reading the news article, etc..) as well as the minority / subset of the opposing view who are willing to listen.
FOLLOW UP: E. Make a point of gathering objections, alternative theories etc, and having the data that refutes them readily and publicly available. This is just a tactical confidence building move.
SUMMARY: Please note, I'm not encouraging necessarily that a single person do all these things. Happily scientists do not work alone, are part of associations, etc.. and collectively they can do these steps and maintain/gain/improve a good footing with the public. And doing so in a respectful way will gain more good will (even from people who disagree) than you might imagine.
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think scientist are so much hurt as lost: when you have years of evidence pointing in one direction, and someone replies with a completely unscientific argument (take a lot of pseudo-science for example) what is he supposed to do? Science has its own epistemological methods. You don't prove something beyond a level of reasonable doubt because that's a) vague, b) really difficult (rarely science proves anythin…
"I don't think scientist are so much hurt as lost: when you have years of evidence pointing in one direction, and someone replies with a completely unscientific argument (take a lot of pseudo-science for example) what is he supposed to do?" My suggestion as to what the scientist is supposed to do when encountering a completely unscientific argument is below. Please note, I am not trying to respond to any of the other…
At the moment I see all around me at University people who are working like crazy to write some paper or meet some deadline. These are the metric on which the scientist is judged, and most of all how he/she can preserve his job. Scientist risk being fired like everyone else (well, at least young scientist).
So society has tried to fill this gap with new jobs: the scientific journalist and the writer of popular science books. They are those doing the job you describe. And there is one added advantage. Many scientist can find it difficult to explain things to the layman for the simple reason that they don't quite understand the knowledge gap between them. I've met many good scientist who were terrible lecturers and that is to a classroom full of wanna-be scientist who go good grades and passed exams.
So yes, scientist should be taught at uni how to talk to non-scientist effectively. But I think it's even better to have someone else, who knows the general topic, reads the papers, and writes a big summary in it for the laymen. They can probably do a much better job.
But as this article showed you still get flak, and a lot of it. And not just flak: you may be taken to court! And sometimes this may happen even if you keep your head low, simply because your paper is starting to get good reputation and so other scientist may use it as an argument in their discussions.
One last word: it's kind of tough when you know the topic well and someone who clearly has no idea gives you an argument on why you are wrong. If you give them the benefit of the doubt then they achieved their aim of muddying the water. If you take up the challenge and try to show why he is wrong, you get attacked for using complicated language or concepts that the laymen cannot understand, or simply branded as a stubborn zealot. And metaphors can only take you that far: a lot of the difficult science is completely against common sense so metaphors don't help much.
A couple of times I had to discuss with people about probability. Their argument was the usual fallacy that if you get---say---10 heads in a row then it's more likely to get a tail. They will mention things like "you need to get 50/50 in the long run" or they will make distinctions between short runs and long (statistical) runs. And no matter how much I tried, I couldn't show they were wrong. If I tried to talk of absolute deviations and relative deviation then I would already lose them. And ironically Math is not science: a scientific theory is never 100% right, but proved mathematical theories are (as long as you start from the right axioms). And yet there was no way.
I think you underestimate how easy it is to come up with random explanations or muddy the waters when you are not uphold to the same standards than the scientist.
P.S. That said I personally don't think it's a scientist job to decide about policy changes. I mean, I'd love it if an expert did so, but what society wants is decided by society. Scientist are there to provide the info, not to decide how to use the knowledge.
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#67I think what he is saying make sense. For instance there is a huge mountain of evidence for anthropogenic global warming and the need to cut down our emissions. I'd say on 9/10 things I probably agree with the scientists, with the exception of GMO foods which to me are a really bad idea with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, I have a problem with laymen needing to sit down and accept whatever scientists…
But when you take statements from alternative medicine, which are: a) not based on any scientific theory, b) often only defended by anecdotal evidence, c) their speaker is charismatic and a proficient PR, then it gets really really hard.
You may point out to research showing that homeopathy doesn't work. To avoid being branded as hiding data or such, you say everything very carefully, explaining anything you know and you don't know, and the uncertainty in the results and so. The other then replies: "You can give me all the numbers you want, but I've _seen_ cases of people who got a lot better." and then show you a few photos of before and after: "Why---he concludes---do you not want the audience to have access to the most effective treatment?".
The former was boring, hard to understand, and objective/dry. The latter spoke straight to the heart, and show evidence.
And remember that a lot of problem arise because people _want_ to believe the charlatan. They want to believe that the incurable cancer that the doctor prescribed can be cured, or that they can keep their lifestyle without destroying the world, or that the religion the believed for for so long is correct an we humans are special.
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#68Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#69I hope everyone realizes the "War on Science" is being marketed to a specific demographic the same way the "War on Christmas" was. If you rolled your eyes then...
Re: Author Simon Singh Puts Up a Fight in the War on Science
#70Why did Singh have to pay $200,000 of his own money to defend himself? Where was The Guardian in all of this? Edit: typos.