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Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

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Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explaining is usually more difficult than understanding, as well.

I've had multiple teachers tell me that if you can't explain something you don't completely understand it yet. grok what I'm saying? :)

I've heard this a few times but thoroughly disagree.

Being able to explain/teach something to others is a very different skill to understanding it and isn't compulsory.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#62
> Correct, that is exactly what I am saying. If you pick a random point in time, you expect 20 minutes between the previous block and the next block on average.

I thought this sounded funny, and I did a little simulation to see if it was correct. Given his assumptions (poisson with lambda 10), you do not get that answer. I got right around 10, which is what I would expect.

https://gist.github.com/tvladeck/e7a164dfe70fa765b10c1af64b3...

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#63
OT: From my perspective, HN is the reference regarding tech content. The upvoted stories, the comments, the discussions are of such a high quality. It's just the best resource to stay informed and educated in tech.

Surprisingly this is not true with Blockchain topics. Upvoted Blockchain stories feel ok but not that relevant or often random. Comments, discussions are sometimes constuctive (like this one) but often anti-blockchain or of low quality.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Understanding is one thing, explaining in layman or easy to undertand terms is another, and sometimes it takes a lot of effort.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjHJ7FmV0M4 You guys would love Richard Feynman.

Another resource there: http://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/

That collection is a series of lectures from Feynman, and his characteristic clarity, on physics across the breadth of all major topics. It's quite amazing to realize how little you, in general, truly understand even really basic concepts like the conservation laws until you read the writings of a person who did genuinely understand what he was talking about and could share that insight in such a uniquely effective way.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#65
post #63

OT: From my perspective, HN is the reference regarding tech content. The upvoted stories, the comments, the discussions are of such a high quality. It's just the best resource to stay informed and educated in tech. Surprisingly this is not true with Blockchain topics. Upvoted Blockchain stories feel ok but not that relevant or often random. Comments, discussions are sometimes constuctive (like this one) but often ant…

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-ge...

When it's in the topic of your domain expertise, you perceive HN to be incorrect, but in all other domains, to be right?

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Why can't all math teachers talk like that? I mean... I know you're clever and all, but if you were really clever you'd explain it in a way that's easy to understand. Still, kudos to the OP. That was a great attempt to be precise.

That simple explanation is exactly wrong though! You don't expect to wait 2x the average. You expect to wait 1x the average, but you also expect that when you start waiting the previous block happened 1x the average time ago, and 1+1=2.

This is the best explanation of the phenomenon. Simple and actually explains why it's 2x and not 3x or 4x.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#68

This was an enjoyable read. Slightly off-topic: are there any books that approach Probability in a fun way? (i.e. that I can read on the train)

I enjoy Statistics Done Wrong https://www.statisticsdonewrong.com

Thanks!

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#69
post #29

TLDR: Since blocks that take a long time to mine fill up more wall-clock time, if you pick an arbitrary instant of wall clock time, you're more likely to be in a "slow" block than a fast block. Specifically, you expect to wait 2x the average.

Ha that's why I spend most of my driving time stuck in traffic.

And why do 3 buses come at once? Because the first one takes all the passengers, so stops more and gets slowed down. The other 2 catch up.

And also if you do half your trip and 10mph and the other at 20mph your average isn't 15mph. You spent more time at 10mph!

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#70
post #63

OT: From my perspective, HN is the reference regarding tech content. The upvoted stories, the comments, the discussions are of such a high quality. It's just the best resource to stay informed and educated in tech. Surprisingly this is not true with Blockchain topics. Upvoted Blockchain stories feel ok but not that relevant or often random. Comments, discussions are sometimes constuctive (like this one) but often ant…

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-ge... When it's in the topic of your domain expertise, you perceive HN to be incorrect, but in all other domains, to be right?

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