Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter • Hacker News Board

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#61

Post by Applejinx » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:34 PM UTC

bromuro wrote: post #56

briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

We are talking about average values with an high degree of deviation - so it is normal the values to be out of the average (“normality” never happens in meteorology). The problem is how much and how often this happens: global warning is very likely to be caused by human activity. Future looks ugly, everybody is (maybe unconsciously) afraid and at fault. And instead of looking for a solution I use my brain 40 hours/we…

It's all about chaos theory. The degree of deviation is directly relative to the amount of energy in the system. Cool the system off, and the deviation (weather) will cover a smaller range. Add energy to the system, as we are doing, and what you EXPECT to see is a titanic chaotic system behaving as chaotic systems do: becoming more chaotic, and widening its range of possible outcomes (and most likely, shortening their duration, because everything becomes more unstable).

Insane heat waves AND insane cold snaps is very much part of 'global warming', or the consistent moderate increase in energy we're doing.

Thousand and ten-thousand-year storms and extremes become yearly or monthly events as the range of the system's outputs has changed. Expect other cold snaps… and ridiculous, dangerous heat waves… and other sorts of dangerous and destructive weather events.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#62

Post by Applejinx » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:35 PM UTC

GuiA wrote: post #7

briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

Isolated abnormal events aren't significant to illustrate global warming is happening, but an increasing frequency of abnormal events is.

Bigtime. And the range of 'abnormal' event, and its frequency. And these events can include unseasonal coldness.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#63

Post by baddox » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:36 PM UTC

briga wrote: post #11

GuiA wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isolated abnormal events aren't significant to illustrate global warming is happening, but an increasing frequency of abnormal events is.

Granted, but I can just picture the people posting this to Facebook citing it as definitive proof that the world is melting.

The fact that it is easy to imagine someone misusing a piece of data is hardly worth mentioning. There is no conceivable piece of data which couldn’t easily be misused by someone.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#64

Post by oldcynic » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:40 PM UTC

pharrington wrote: post #55

pedalpete wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though I don't "welcome global warming", I think this is a good point of debate. The comparison to "getting colder" isn't really valid, as it is not the only option. Most people would like things to stay the same. Perhaps we should be looking at what temperature would be the most beneficial to the planet as a whole. If we were to create a new earth, what would be the ideal temperature, how would we manage it, where i…

Since human cognition is based from previous cognitive state and interpretation of sensory input, precise communication requires mapping the communicative symbols as closely as possible to your desired semantics. Earth itself will do just fine at any temperature that's below literally evaporating. Various life on this planet has evolved to thrive in wildly disparate climates, and short of complete eradication of an e…

My starting point with that question is to say humans are best suited to the global climate under which they evolved. Muck about with that at your peril. Try it out on the hot-spare planet first please.

Attempting to adapt the environment will have unforeseen, probably serious, consequences. I for one hope we do not try, or have no choice but to try, geoengineering attempting to avoid catastrophe.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#65

Post by allthenews » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:43 PM UTC

Climate evolves over scales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years. It is frustrating to see fellow geoscientists use some 100 years of anomalous temperature data as absolute proof of permanent catastrophic change.

Having read parts of the official IPCC report, there are still significant holes all the way down to the treatment of the woefully incomplete data used to draw admittedly uncertain conclusions. The picture is nowhere near as certain as many have been lead to believe, and it is difficult for me to take climate change reporting seriously, because as soon as one moves past published literature, the concept of uncertainty is abandoned for politicized groupthink.

Now, it is not unreasonable to assume that something is happening. And, given the chance that it is not transient, it makes sense to hedge our bets and reduce emissions. However, even here I hesitate because of an almost total void of literature discussing the potential benefits of a warmer earth.

Such is the curse of taboo.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#66

Post by zasz » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:47 PM UTC

poster123 wrote: post #42

Doesn't warming of the coldest parts of the world mean there will be more usable land? I have read that global warming could have benefits for countries such as Russia.

There will be a net loss to global agriculture for a couple reasons:

1. Climate change implies increased variability in weather--hotter summers, wetter winters. Agriculture does best in a relatively stable environment. Just look at California--extremely wet winters followed by extremely hot wildfires. It's hard for a species to thrive in a very wide variety of conditions. Not impossible, of course, with humanity being the crowning example of that kind of flexibility, but it's harder for an annual grain like wheat, rice, or corn to pull off.

2. Less sun at northern and southern latitudes mean a shorter growing season.

There are a few other reasons I can think of for why yields will generally drop, among them ozone pollution, but they're not related to climate change specifically.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#67

Post by iliis » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:48 PM UTC

manmal wrote: post #46

52-6F-62 wrote: post #2

Anecdotal: Here in Toronto, it's been 16˚C this past week. In February. We've had about 2 or 3 real snowfalls that stuck around for a few days before melting. As somebody who loves ice skating outside, it's really frustrating. And I love the snow. Every year it seems like the winter gets a little milder...

It seems the cold moved to central Europe, giving us -15 degrees celsius at night in the upcoming week.

It seems that this is directly caused by the arctic temperature rise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

Relevant quote: Following a sudden stratospheric warming, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#68

Post by joshuahedlund » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:49 PM UTC

briga wrote: post #4

Using events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should…

They're different by orders of magnitude. This spike is occurring in context of record low winter ice following a record low the previous winter following decades of a declining average. Yeah, the 25 number is a spike on the edge of the bell curve, but this bell curve is consistently shifting, and thus so are these spikes.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#69

Post by madaxe_again » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:52 PM UTC

tinco wrote: post #41

brentm wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point believing or not believing in climate change is analogous to religion. I have trouble believing any facts or data would swing a significant portion of either side of the debate. Denying climate change is easy. We're not going to see places like New York City move swiftly underwater and the problem is so abstract it's easy to call BS. Short of Trump changing his mind and using his super power of convinci…

As someone who is convinced of climate change, I like to think my mind would be changed rather easily with some comforting graphs and believable theories on how those graphs show the earth is in fact not warming ever more rapidly since the industrial revolution. I mean, that would be really really nice.

Oh man, if someone dug up actual, solid data that showed that all of our understanding of ice cores and historic temperature and co2 was wrong, and irrefutably so, I'd be overjoyed.

This is, after all, rather like living with the sword of Damocles over my head. I'd really rather not have it dangling there, glinting menacingly at me, but wishing the sword wasn't there doesn't help one jot.

Re: Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter

#70

Post by microtonal » Sat, Feb 24, 2018, 9:56 PM UTC

toasterlovin wrote: post #49

loverofthings wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In similar ways, majority of people that believe in climate change do nothing (or barely anything) to fight it. No one is reducing their heating/cooling, no one is changing their diet, no one is measuring their heating patterns and trying to optimize it (by no one I mean barely anyone). People still want their 24/7 AC, their steaks, their huge cars, their big heat inefficient houses, their plane flights etc. No one d…

It's even worse than that: the small percentage of people who have changed their consumption patterns out of concern for the environment are probably having zero or negative impact. For instance, the following products are worse for the environment than their alternatives: 1. Hand-crafted, locally produced goods 2. Non-factory farmed food 3. Organic food

There are also simple things that one can do, that have an impact. For example, one could go on holiday to a local destination rather than flying half the world. Or you could cycle to work rather than traveling by car every day.

(Sure, in the grand scheme of things, these will make small differences, but we have to cut our use of fossil fuel everywhere.)