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Netflix is now worth more than $100B

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#61

Post by Rotareti »

ebbv wrote: post #2

Can we infer from this that at the end of Q3 they had ~25 million subscribers? I am not planning to cancel Netflix but I am frustrated at how terrible most of the content is, and how hard it is to find anything with the current interface. I hope they're rethinking their UX and reconsidering their current approach of "License a bunch of really cheap awful content to make it seem like there's a lot of stuff to watch."

> I am frustrated at how terrible most of the content is, and how hard it is to find anything with the current interface.

I use criticker.com to solve this problem. They have an "On Netflix" filter, that lists everything available on Netflix. They also have a rating system, where you can give movies a rating from 0 to 100. If you rate enough titles, it'll give you a "Probable Score" for each movie/series/documentary, that you haven't rated. I rated about 150 titles and their suggestions are quite accurate already. I can now sort the list of titles that is available on Netflix based on that "Probable Score" and work my way down from 100. Their interface is a little confusing and buggy at times, but it's really powerful (IMO). The database is quite complete, it contains stuff throughout the entire cinema history from multiple countries; series and documentaries as well.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#62

Post by aphextron »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #48
eldavido wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Good cheap batteries.

>Cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

What value is being created here, exactly? There's plenty of idealistic notions being thrown around, but I've yet to see a single, real, useful product or service materialize

>Applied neural networks.

Same.

>Automation.

This is way too broad to be invested in. Of course the world is automating at a greater rate, but is this a cause for growth? Will automated factories produce more goods for the same consumers?

>Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years.

Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable

>Good cheap batteries.

Granted this one would be a technological revolution greater than the internet, but it's just a fantasy for now. I think the grandparent is dead on here. Real inflation is 10 times the official rate since the mid 2000s. We are all playing with funny money these days, and this won't end well.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#63

Post by take4 »

samfisher83 wrote: post #37
anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

I don't know why you are being downvoted. At some point you have to generate cash to justify your valuation. However if you look at amazon they have never generated cash relative to their valuation and its been like 20 something years. It has returned 10x in the last 10 years so I don't think their investors are complaining. If you look at google, facebook, and apple they are generating cash that would justify their…

Amazon has had positive free cash flow every year since 2001.

Netflix has had free cash flow of -$53 million, -$840 million, -$1.6 billion, and -$2 billion in the last 4 years respectively, and their debt has grown to $5 billion.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#64

Post by lobster_johnson »

cm2187 wrote: post #57
lobster_johnson wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I supplement the big ones with FilmStruck (has a subset of the Criterion Collection), MUBI and Fandor. Together they have a decent collection of "older" (pre-2010s) films.

I don't know for the other twos but Mubi doesn't have much of a collection. They have a rolling 30 titles chosen by them. It's interesting if you want to discover new movies (though heavily dependent on their taste being aligned to yours), but not so much if you pull the filmography of Gene Hackman on imdb and want to watch the movies you haven't seen already. [edit] actually none of the other two you mentioned is av…

Right, MUBI is more like an online movie theater. FilmStruck and Fandor are traditional streaming services. They're small, though. I think FilmStruck's catalog numbers much less than a thousand.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#65

Post by tomaha »

joering2 wrote: post #50

How do they make money?? I mean - seriously? And how will they stand up now that NN is gone and any company/website using much more traffic will be force to pay more? Please help me with the math -- at any given day, me, my wife and 2 kids are streaming netflix on multiple devices in HD; most likely pulling tens of gigabytes of data per day. How is that all covered under $10.99 per month?? and on the top - they make…

The problem is that if you're big enough business-wise you don't care that much about NN. It's like in Germany when Google has to pay for content in Google News and they just tell the publishers they will not include them if they don't give it to them for free despite these new rules (which are stupid). But if you're a small startup or company and you want to do this you have no chance doing this. Same goes for NN. If someone wants to block Google or Netflix now they can't really get that much from them because they need them to sell their own product or otherwise people will leave. If you're small no-one cares and your can't do anything about it. So it hurts innovation from new companies but doesn't hurt any big established players.

Besides that they also have enough revenue to invest in their own fiber infrastructure like Google does and really everyone wants to get good access to their content so they connect to them.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#66

Post by objclxt »

dvt wrote: post #24
Spivak wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really a boom and bust. As Netflix's 3rd party library continue to be siphoned off more people will turn to piracy because they're not going to subscribe to n different services.

N different services still come out cheaper than cable. I pay for Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime (which comes with Video) so let's say ~ $30 a month. Compared to Cox Cable, it's not even close -- $30 is Cox' entry level cable offering (and I can't share it with my family, nor watch shows at my own leisure). My bet is that there's plenty of cash still left. Until cable companies wise up (which is probably never), Net…

> Until cable companies wise up (which is probably never), Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Video will continue printing money.

Hulu lost over $600 million last year, so they must have a conveyor belt from the printer directly to the toilet. We'll see what happens once Disney takes majority control, but I bet this time next year Hulu's going to be very different.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#67

Post by sampo »

dvt wrote: post #24
Spivak wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really a boom and bust. As Netflix's 3rd party library continue to be siphoned off more people will turn to piracy because they're not going to subscribe to n different services.

N different services still come out cheaper than cable. I pay for Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime (which comes with Video) so let's say ~ $30 a month. Compared to Cox Cable, it's not even close -- $30 is Cox' entry level cable offering (and I can't share it with my family, nor watch shows at my own leisure). My bet is that there's plenty of cash still left. Until cable companies wise up (which is probably never), Net…

> with cable you still get ads lol

Amazon Prime shows you short ads of other Amazon shows, at the start of episodes. Not in the middle, though.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#68

Post by anilshanbhag »

take4 wrote: post #63
samfisher83 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you are being downvoted. At some point you have to generate cash to justify your valuation. However if you look at amazon they have never generated cash relative to their valuation and its been like 20 something years. It has returned 10x in the last 10 years so I don't think their investors are complaining. If you look at google, facebook, and apple they are generating cash that would justify their…

Amazon has had positive free cash flow every year since 2001. Netflix has had free cash flow of -$53 million, -$840 million, -$1.6 billion, and -$2 billion in the last 4 years respectively, and their debt has grown to $5 billion.

Exactly, Amazon also has lot of assets. They have logistics networks across multiple countries, warehouses, data centers, etc. May not be commensurate to their market cap but it does give them a solid moat.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#69

Post by joering2 »

spyspy wrote: post #54
joering2 wrote: post #50

How do they make money?? I mean - seriously? And how will they stand up now that NN is gone and any company/website using much more traffic will be force to pay more? Please help me with the math -- at any given day, me, my wife and 2 kids are streaming netflix on multiple devices in HD; most likely pulling tens of gigabytes of data per day. How is that all covered under $10.99 per month?? and on the top - they make…

CDNs will reduce bandwidth costs per user to essentially nothing. Content creation is the lion's share of their costs.

Biggest CDN charge $9 per 1TB of transfer... how is watching 20TB per month worth less than netflix fee so that they actually make some profit?

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#70

Post by adamclayman »

aphextron wrote: post #62
bufferoverflow wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Good cheap batteries.

>Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. What value is being created here, exactly? There's plenty of idealistic notions being thrown around, but I've yet to see a single, real, useful product or service materialize >Applied neural networks. Same. >Automation. This is way too broad to be invested in. Of course the world is automating at a greater rate, but is this a cause for growth? Will automated factories produce more goods fo…

> Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable

Since driverless vehicles and fleets are arriving roughly concurrent to electric vehicles, they're actually more likely to _reduce_ the volume of cars produced, after accounting for any increased, accelerated "fleet churn" buyers exert via aggregate demand to reach a faster critical mass on increasingly or perfectly safe cars.

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