Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#61

Post by seagullz » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 3:47 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #38

rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

AT&T and DARPA were monopolies when transistor, the Internet were invented, no?

My doubt is about these economic theories. I worry about the many dangers with Amazon's burgeoning monopoly.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#62

Post by iamnotlarry » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 3:52 AM UTC

asfasfgasgasg wrote: post #53

refurb wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

> Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right? We know that that has been true in many cases, but we don't know that it always will be true in all cases. For example, I don't think there's a very good argument that competitive pressure has led to a super high quality healthcare system in the US vs. the rest of the industrialized world. Competitive pressure optimizes for ce…

The supply of doctors in the U.S. is tightly controlled by interests best served when the supply is limited. This is not competitive pressure.

Allow doctors to be "certified" by private organizations, then watch how quickly medical schools change, residency allotments open up, and doctor ranks swell. As the supply of seats in medical schools and number of residencies rises, the cost of medical school will decrease. More doctors with less debt will put downward pressure on medical prices.

You may argue that quality would not increase under such competition, but I disagree. People who can't afford healthcare would be able to afford poor quality healthcare which is better than they currently enjoy. Rich people will still have vanity certified doctors. In general the cost of comparable quality healthcare would be lower.

TLDR; don't complain about disappointing results of competitive pressure in a market with very limited competitive pressure.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#63

Post by Y7ZCQtNo39 » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 4:15 AM UTC

thinkling wrote: post #31

kbos87 wrote: post #10

I don’t think that the world can quite fathom how dangerous Amazon actually is to virtually every industry. When it comes to purveyors of physical goods, Amazon has the power to reshape the fabric of our streets and neighborhoods in ways few people can fathom. Say goodbye to grocery stores and ground floor retail if they get their way. They are just smart enough to do it slowly enough where they don’t have any jarrin…

People said this 20 years ago about Microsoft. They were king of the PC, imposing a Windows (and Office-) tax on every other business. They were trying to extend that dominance to the internet: Internet Explorer, CitySearch, Expedia, MSN portal, MSN Shows, MSN Messenger, you name it. They were building interactive TV, software for cars, and a mobile phone platform. For a while they were building a bill presentation a…

So you're saying Amazon is no different -- they'll try and take on nearly every industry, but will really only have one core competence in 20 years?

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#64

Post by tlarkworthy » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 4:46 AM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #17

kbos87 wrote: post #10

I don’t think that the world can quite fathom how dangerous Amazon actually is to virtually every industry. When it comes to purveyors of physical goods, Amazon has the power to reshape the fabric of our streets and neighborhoods in ways few people can fathom. Say goodbye to grocery stores and ground floor retail if they get their way. They are just smart enough to do it slowly enough where they don’t have any jarrin…

For me, Amazon is a long way off from threatening my local supermarket and other local retailers. Would I buy clothes from Amazon? No, I like to try them on first. Returning stuff by mail is a pain. Would I buy expensive home furnishings from Amazon? No, I like to see, touch, try these things before I spend a lot of money. Would I buy perishable groceries from Amazon? No, because deliveries happen when I'm at work an…

>Do I buy toilet paper from Amazon? No, because it's easier to pick it up at the store

I get toilet paper on Amazon subscription. I don't even need to think about buying toilet paper, it's already there when I need it.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#65

Post by caseysoftware » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 4:48 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #38

rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

People forget that just 20 years ago - August 1997 - Apple was on the verge of going under. Microsoft kept them afloat with a massive (at the time) $150M purchase. Microsoft was in the middle of their anti-trust fight so they couldn't afford to lose a "competitor" no matter how absurdly mismatched they were. iMacs, iPods, and eventually iPhones fundamentally changed everything.

The economic behemoths regularly change shape, form, and function and others replace them. Believing that we're at the final result of everything seems misguided at best.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#66

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 5:06 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #38

rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

[deleted]

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#67

Post by saryant » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 5:12 AM UTC

seagullz wrote: post #61

refurb wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

AT&T and DARPA were monopolies when transistor, the Internet were invented, no? My doubt is about these economic theories. I worry about the many dangers with Amazon's burgeoning monopoly.

DARPA is a government agency.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#68

Post by aslkdjaslkdj » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 5:41 AM UTC

bhollander823 wrote: post #57

Osmium wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and Netflix is no great shakes either And this is mostly because Netflix wants to hide the true extent of their library. Hulu just had a recent, awful re-design too. They cover in-active thumbnails with gradients, you can barely see anything. Apple TV (which I like as among the best) also has a ridiculously unergonomic remote and very confusing UI (do I want to press "menu" or "home"? And now the TV app is 'home' b…

What do you mean by "Netflix wants to hide the true extent of their library"? Why would they intentionally create a worse user experience?

Because their library gets smaller and smaller every year especially their library of non-Netflix produced content.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#69

Post by puranjay » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 5:51 AM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #17

kbos87 wrote: post #10

I don’t think that the world can quite fathom how dangerous Amazon actually is to virtually every industry. When it comes to purveyors of physical goods, Amazon has the power to reshape the fabric of our streets and neighborhoods in ways few people can fathom. Say goodbye to grocery stores and ground floor retail if they get their way. They are just smart enough to do it slowly enough where they don’t have any jarrin…

For me, Amazon is a long way off from threatening my local supermarket and other local retailers. Would I buy clothes from Amazon? No, I like to try them on first. Returning stuff by mail is a pain. Would I buy expensive home furnishings from Amazon? No, I like to see, touch, try these things before I spend a lot of money. Would I buy perishable groceries from Amazon? No, because deliveries happen when I'm at work an…

There are some things I shop exclusively online. With other things, experience has been a good teacher; I've learned to shop for them in-store.

Like clothes. The experience is invariably better in stores than online. Amazon might offer better selection but I see that as a negative; I don't want to spend 2 hours just trying to find the right pair of jeans from 2,000 variants.

Re: Can Anyone Beat Jeff Bezos?

#70

Post by quadrangle » Tue, Oct 03, 2017, 5:54 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #38

rtpg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the dangers of monopoly, but I wish there was a stronger argument here. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, with Walmart. And none of these arguments worked! Walmart is big and dominant. It killed off smaller places, but people don't care because it has mostly everything and is cheap. "This convenient good thing is actually bad!" isn't super convincing I guess.... EDIT: the ultimate irony being…

the _best case scenario_ for this economic model leads to a terrible status quo Terrible status quo? You realize that competitive pressure is what drives progress right?

> competitive pressure is what drives progress

Except when it doesn't. It's perfectly possible to have, for example, a bunch of scientists crazy motivated to learn the answers to their questions and all collaborate as cooperatively as possible toward that end. Adding competition could result in duplicated effort, secrecy… or to added pressure and motivation… I mean the one thing we can say is that there's no guarantee that competition is good or bad for progress, it depends on so many factors.

You can reasonably say that competition can drive progress. Your sentence implies that it is the primary (or sole??) driver of progress, and that's nonsense.

Consider Richard Dawkins' tree analogy: competition is what drives trees to become super tall, but that means they spend tons of energy doing that. Being tall in itself has no value to the trees. Yes, evolution inherently creates ecosystems around tall trees, but that doesn't mean that particular ecosystem is somehow better than other possibilities. It's more true that competition is just a fact of life rather than that we know it to be good or bad. There are tons of cases where reduced competition and increased cooperation can provide more progress.