Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

North Korea fires missile over Japan

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 80 posts

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#61

Post by wyatte »

baklavabook wrote: post #35
jonnathanson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean gov…

The idea of NK dropping a nuke anywhere is just utter non-sense. It's obvious that all the threats, from both sides, are nothing more than sabre rattling and when you look at the actual actions of nations the US has done really terrible things, while NK has done very little, yet everyone seems to be OK with the US having thousands of nukes under the control of a psycho leader, but can't handle the idea of NK having some nukes to protect themselves.

What a load of malarkey.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#62

Post by keganunderwood »

Ting-wei wrote: post #52
baklavabook wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As much as I hate Trump, none of this is his fault. If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible actor to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean gov…

That is it. China has full control over its huge border to NK. No way for them to import missile parts unless China is OK with that. Everything of value that NK has and that its elite enjoys is imported from China: Cars, buses, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones... Plus, China could cut or reduce the oil/gas supply any day to zero.... if they wanted.

I agree. DPRK should keep its nuclear weapons. I am more concerned about nukes in the Indian peninsula when it comes to world security. How good is Pakistan at keeping its nuclear arsenal safe? How good is India? Can we trust them to be competent?

What we should focus on is strengthening the democracy and the economy of ROK so when DPRK fails, ROK can be independent and strong like Germany was in the nineties in its unification. We are nowhere close.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#63

Post by pcurve »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #51
kabdib wrote: post #27

I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war". I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.

>I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor How does North Korea benefit from an attack like that? The regime isn't suicidal, every move they make is to strengthen their own position.

That's assuming it can be traced to NK after detonation.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#64

Post by [deleted] »

ams6110 wrote: post #54
jonnathanson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular). Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably te…

Well he already backed off on his Guam threats. How much credibilty does that gain him with his generals, and how did Trump misplay that exactly?

[deleted]

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#65

Post by justonepost »

baklavabook wrote: post #36
jonnathanson wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border. Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.

You're giving China too much credit. China is the entire reason why North Korea exists. Everyone knows this.

Yeah, this is all Chinas fault. No matter what they don't come out looking good.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#66

Post by ranger207 »

branchless wrote: post #40

First thing on the BBC article: > No effort was made by the Japanese to shoot down the missile, which was launched early in the morning local time, triggering safety warnings. Isn't that odd? Why mention this up front? Why not shoot this down given the warnings to the public indicated it was serious and a threat to life? What tech do Japan use to shoot these down? Is it the same as the Yanks? What happens the moment…

Most ballistic missile defense (BMD) currently deployed is designed for a shootdown in the terminal phase, ie after the missile has reentered the atmosphere. Destroying a missile in the boost phase, before it leaves the atmosphere, is the best bet, but that requires advanced intelligence of when and where a launch will happen. If I recall correctly, there's currently no good midcourse BMD for when the missile is out of the atmosphere. Aegis has some midcourse capability, but it's for lower and shorter range missiles, I think. That just leaves terminal defense, like THAAD and the Aegis system, and terminal defense is the hardest phase. So there's no real good option to shoot it down, especially if it turns out your interceptor has a low probability of kill (pk). If a missile was actually coming down into Japan, you can be sure that there will be several interceptors on their way.

As for tech, Japan mostly uses the same tech as the US, including THAAD, which is a ground-based radar and launcher, the Aegis system with the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) which is a ship-based radar and launcher, and finally the Patriot system of ground-based radar and launcher. However, the Patriot's PAC-2 and -3 missiles are designed for missiles with a shorter range than ICBMs. All of them have data-sharing, so you can use an Aegis radar to track a missile for a THAAD battery to launch.

If you try to shoot a North Korean missile and miss, then either morale goes out the window if it was an NK test, or you have to fall back on the next line of defense (Aegis -> THAAD -> Patriot) and hope that it hits. The further the ICBM goes though, the lower pk you have since it's going faster and potentially has better maneuverability.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#67

Post by cattlefarmer »

fao_ wrote: post #37
ajross wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

> they've now put a weapon straight through an ally's airspace. Have you studied a map around NK? To get a missile to a target that's free of people in international waters, you have to fly through at least one country's airspace.

Flying over open water is one thing. The missiles flew straight over populated land.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#68

Post by boomboomsubban »

pcurve wrote: post #63
boomboomsubban wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor How does North Korea benefit from an attack like that? The regime isn't suicidal, every move they make is to strengthen their own position.

That's assuming it can be traced to NK after detonation.

What is the benefit in that situation? They know any attack will make the US more hostile, whether they're involved or not.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#69

Post by lostmsu »

ajross wrote: post #49
krapp wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We get the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea together on a conference call and all agree not to start World War 3 when China decides to push through some "regime change." Why would China do this? Because North Korea is useful to them as a buffer state and a proxy to aggravate the West, but only so long as they can be controlled. Once they pose a real threat to their neighbors, they also pose a real threat to Ch…

The problem with that plan is that China has only marginally more control over Kim than we do. He's a rogue from their perspective too, and their ability to effect a "regime change" is limited by the same "don't poke the nuclear nutjob" problem we have.

I am not convinced that Kim is rogue. How do you know his actions are not dictated by China?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#70

Post by lostmsu »

jahaja wrote: post #26
helthanatos wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

That people can casually accept the massive loss of lives this would cause is bewildering.

Imagine that person believes, that if that's not done, alternative is WW3. Can you guarantee that's not going to happen? What if they actually nuke something, and then China will follow?
Post reply on HN