Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond • Hacker News Board

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#61

Post by evilduck » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:30 AM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #48

evilduck wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conspiracy theory? The vendor lock-in behavior of MS is practically advertised as a platform feature. To up and reverse their product lock-in policy would cast doubt on many (most?) of their other claims.

The conspiracy theory is that they want to lock you in for no other reason but to give you no other viable option. That's absurd. They want to sell you as much software as possible, of course, they're a company. But the reason they will stay in the mobile space isn't to keep you from getting any other mobile device. But because there's money to be made in it and it fits into their core competency.

I don't think it's absurd. They've demonstrated several times over that they're willing to accept short term losses for the sole purpose of damaging or killing off competition.

Hell, they even invented the slogan "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish".

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#62

Post by evilduck » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:30 AM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #48

evilduck wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conspiracy theory? The vendor lock-in behavior of MS is practically advertised as a platform feature. To up and reverse their product lock-in policy would cast doubt on many (most?) of their other claims.

The conspiracy theory is that they want to lock you in for no other reason but to give you no other viable option. That's absurd. They want to sell you as much software as possible, of course, they're a company. But the reason they will stay in the mobile space isn't to keep you from getting any other mobile device. But because there's money to be made in it and it fits into their core competency.

I don't think it's absurd. They've demonstrated several times over that they're willing to accept short term losses for the sole purpose of damaging or killing off competition.

Hell, they even invented the slogan "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish".

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#63

Post by dieterrams » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:30 AM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #56

mikecane wrote: post #44

The problem with Microsoft isn't a lack of bright talent. It's "Who's Next?" People are jockeying for political positions, not concentrating on products. Ballmer won't be there forever and everyone wants to be the next Ballmer. If Steve Jobs passed away tomorrow, there could be similar jockeying at Apple -- we've already seen how product introductions lacking Jobs have been split up among several people. We don't kno…

Eh, Ives is almost certainly heir to the throne.

I don't know anything about Ives' business skills, but I'd worry that making him CEO would be promoting him to his level of incompetence. He's a fantastic designer, and I'd rather not see him distracted from that role.

But it might be wise for him to have final approval over product designs, the way Jobs presumably does now.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#64

Post by nostrademons » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:34 AM UTC

wallflower wrote: post #57

nostrademons wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM has been bleeding for a long time and they still haven't died yet.

I've always been amazed looking back at how IBM embraced open source back in the early 90s with a vengeance. I wonder if this saved the company.

I think it both saved and killed the company.

It saved the company in that it stopped the hemorrhaging of cash and gave them an actually profitable business model. Without this, they would've gone out of business entirely sometime in the early-mid 90s.

It killed them as a center of innovation. IBM hasn't invented anything worthwhile since the IBM PC in 1981. (No, I don't count Eclipse: IntelliJ idea came out first and better, and yet was eclipsed because IBM could afford to offer their product for free.)

Maybe that's the dilemma that Microsoft now faces. They can embrace their mediocrity, cater to their existing customer base, and continue to milk billions a year from their Winoffice monopoly. Or they can try to innovate. But most of their recent projects seem like they're trying to innovate and the coming out thoroughly mediocre, which isn't really a good combination.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#65

Post by philwelch » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:37 AM UTC

dieterrams wrote: post #63

gfodor wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, Ives is almost certainly heir to the throne.

I don't know anything about Ives' business skills, but I'd worry that making him CEO would be promoting him to his level of incompetence. He's a fantastic designer, and I'd rather not see him distracted from that role. But it might be wise for him to have final approval over product designs, the way Jobs presumably does now.

I think the most probable succession plan is to put Tim Cook in charge of the company with Ive in charge of design and aesthetics. Who has what job title is hard to predict.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#66

Post by nostrademons » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:40 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #38

Anechoic wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and it's arguably happening right now to some of the companies I mentioned (Dell, Yahoo) but if/when they recover it will likely happen again. Apple will likely face bad times at some point in the future.

Don't tell anyone, but I think it's happening to Google right now . It's just early stages (like MS in 1995), and Google still has more good products than bad, so it isn't exceptionally noticeable. But the recent, high-profile launch disasters, the clutter that's slowly creeping into the result pages, and stuff like the search page background goofiness...they sure feel like early MS-style mistakes.....

MS in 1995 still had many, many years of good work ahead of it. Remember that they won the browser wars, after everyone had written them off as being too big and clumsy to adapt to change. That was also when we got Win2k and WinXP (arguably the best versions of Windows ever) and their Office product matured into its familiar form.

I'd say Microsoft started going downhill after 2002, when they disbanded the IE team and embarked on the disaster that was Vista. But I remember that when I started college in 2001, I hated Microsoft and yet virtually all the software on my computer was by them. It's a sign of market dominance when your customers hate you and yet use your products anyway. ;-)

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#67

Post by philwelch » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:43 AM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #48

evilduck wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conspiracy theory? The vendor lock-in behavior of MS is practically advertised as a platform feature. To up and reverse their product lock-in policy would cast doubt on many (most?) of their other claims.

The conspiracy theory is that they want to lock you in for no other reason but to give you no other viable option. That's absurd. They want to sell you as much software as possible, of course, they're a company. But the reason they will stay in the mobile space isn't to keep you from getting any other mobile device. But because there's money to be made in it and it fits into their core competency.

I see no evidence mobile phones are in any way even close to Microsoft's core competency.

It would be a lot more dignified and profitable if Microsoft acted like a mature business rather than unsuccessfully chasing the latest trends.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#68

Post by nostrademons » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:44 AM UTC

todayiamme wrote: post #55

I don't think that even if Microsoft layed off 60% of its staff it would become competitive as Apple or Google. The more I read into their problems the more I think that this is not a management issue. No they have rigid management controls to ensure that stuff doesn't go wrong like the other giants, but due to the lack of a vision. If you ask an Apple, Google, old HP, or any employee of an innovative company they wi…

I think a lot of Microsoft's problem is that they succeeded in their mission statement. "A computer on every desk, all running Microsoft software" was incredible hubris in 1974. It's reality now. What can Microsoft do to top that?

It makes me wonder about what the world will look like in 15 years. Google's mission statement is "Organize the world's information, and make it universally accessible and useful." Right now, I'd tend to think that Google is safe from many of Microsoft's woes, because I couldn't imagine how they could possibly finish their mission statement. But I would've thought the same thing about Microsoft in the 1970s.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#69

Post by philwelch » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:53 AM UTC

todayiamme wrote: post #55

I don't think that even if Microsoft layed off 60% of its staff it would become competitive as Apple or Google. The more I read into their problems the more I think that this is not a management issue. No they have rigid management controls to ensure that stuff doesn't go wrong like the other giants, but due to the lack of a vision. If you ask an Apple, Google, old HP, or any employee of an innovative company they wi…

Microsoft's vision was a computer on every desk and in every home. They accomplished their vision, and they're a mature company collecting massive amounts of rent on the software that runs on most of those computers. They don't lack vision so much as they gain illusions--illusions that they can still be a young, growing concern with one foot firmly planted in a mature business.

That's not how business ecology works, though. Microsoft's shareholders are not well served with stock in a company that's half mature, dividend-paying, high-market-share titan and half scrappy innovator. They're probably better off having stock in a Microsoft comfortable with its maturity as well as a separate, younger, scrappier company. The entire economy would be better off with that.

Re: Amid layoffs, Microsofties reveal further turmoil in Redmond

#70

Post by dieterrams » Thu, Jul 08, 2010, 2:53 AM UTC

philwelch wrote: post #65

dieterrams wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know anything about Ives' business skills, but I'd worry that making him CEO would be promoting him to his level of incompetence. He's a fantastic designer, and I'd rather not see him distracted from that role. But it might be wise for him to have final approval over product designs, the way Jobs presumably does now.

I think the most probable succession plan is to put Tim Cook in charge of the company with Ive in charge of design and aesthetics. Who has what job title is hard to predict.

You know, Jobs keeps insisting Siri is an AI company...

"Hey virtual Steve, should we add this feature?"

"Get rid of it."

"Should we keep this feature?"

"Get rid of it."

"What do you think about--"

"That's shit."