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Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

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Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#61

Post by tyingq »

yawaworht12 wrote: post #58
tyingq wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might make sense here if I'd thrown a rant about how Lyft was going to eat their lunch. But I didn't. I said, roughly, that the current model is unsustainable and loses money. If Uber is losing $2-3bn/year, and Lyft is losing $600/mn, that doesn't contradict that. People talk about Uber because they are the market leader, and because their hubris and antics add additional risk to the already shaky model (like th…

Define hubris and provide evidence of it. That seems like an odd accusation to levy if someone is trying to be dispassionate and objective in their argument against a business model instead of a particular company.

Er, okay. You don't objectively think the Waymo lawsuit is a concern?

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#62

Post by tyingq »

yawaworht12 wrote: post #54
tyingq wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you may be misreading me. I'm not saying they are imminent. I am saying Uber's business model sucks without the lower costs they deliver. Anything that delays them means Uber burns more cash subsidizing cheap prices to hold back competition. And once they do arrive, competitors can enter the market with lower costs. Or, maybe Uber isn't losing as much as it seems? (Estimates are $2+bn/yr) Or there is some moa…

Everyone is blinded by the large number like $3 billion. That's not the number that matterS. All the companies in this market are subsidizing rides (except maybe the traditional taxis). What matters is how much each ride is being subsidized. A while back another user did this math using leaked financials from Uber and Lyft and Lyft deserves more criticism for subsidizing rides than Uber: https://news.ycombinator.com/…

Sure. But noting that the same model isn't working for anyone doesn't change anything I said.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#63

Post by yeukhon »

Spinfusor wrote: post #55
yeukhon wrote: post #9

I prefer Gett for long commute. It gives you a firm quote so if your Uber/Lyft/Juno driver messed up enroute or there's a traffic, you don't pay the extra. From a user's perspective, this saves me money. I would take Gett to Barclay Center knowing Uber and Lyft would charge me high premium after game. Or trip from Manhattan back to Queens. There's also an option to make extra stop which is nice! Gett cars are the reg…

Re Grubhub/Seamless (I used to work there): The sense I got was that they haven't unified the brands yet because they're really afraid of messing up the NYC market. Grubhub merged with Seamless in 2013 because leadership wanted to get into NYC, and Seamless owned/owns NYC. It's a hugely profitable market for the company. They've toyed with the idea of bringing the brands closer (particularly around the Grubhub rebran…

I see. I can see the risk, although at this point both apps are virtually identical appearance wise and even function wise. For the G/S folks out there, not that I am picky, but seems like a good idea to consolidate. I was actually using Grubhub before downloading seamless then I wanted to try Seamless (I didn't know the merger until I downloaded both apps and realized they are the same).

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#64

Post by yawaworht12 »

tyingq wrote: post #61
yawaworht12 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define hubris and provide evidence of it. That seems like an odd accusation to levy if someone is trying to be dispassionate and objective in their argument against a business model instead of a particular company.

Er, okay. You don't objectively think the Waymo lawsuit is a concern?

I think its a concern, but how is it hubris on Uber's part? It's an allegation not a proven fact based on weak circumstantial evidence. In America you can sue anyone for anything. The fact that they knew about these downloaded files since well before he left Google but only did something now when Uber has a negative PR firestorm makes me very skeptical about Google's motives. If you know an employee download files, you deal with the situation immediately and make sure your IP is returned. If you're being ethical, you don't wait almost 1-2 years until a convenient time to use that incident to attack a competitor that out-executed you fair and square.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#65

Post by yawaworht12 »

tyingq wrote: post #60
yawaworht12 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sans self driving cars, Uber's competitors are also losing cash, and they are losing cash faster than Uber https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13772168

Yes, that seems logical. I'd mentioned competition in my comment as Waymo and car companies. "Sell at a loss but make it up in volume" probably doesn't work well for many :)

I read your comment twice. You only mention Uber and not "Waymo and car companies" unless your referring to a different comment of yours than the one I replied to here.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#66

Post by tyingq »

yawaworht12 wrote: post #64
tyingq wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Er, okay. You don't objectively think the Waymo lawsuit is a concern?

I think its a concern, but how is it hubris on Uber's part? It's an allegation not a proven fact based on weak circumstantial evidence. In America you can sue anyone for anything. The fact that they knew about these downloaded files since well before he left Google but only did something now when Uber has a negative PR firestorm makes me very skeptical about Google's motives. If you know an employee download files, y…

If you're on the fence as to whether Uber demonstrates hubris, we're probably too far apart to have any meaningful debate.

On the "knew about these downloaded files", that's not the story Waymo presented[1]. They said an email from a supplier had attached files of a Uber lidar board that looked a lot like a Waymo proprietary board. That is what prompted a look into the logs.

[1]https://medium.com/waymo/a-note-on-our-lawsuit-against-otto-...

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#67

Post by tyingq »

yawaworht12 wrote: post #65
tyingq wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that seems logical. I'd mentioned competition in my comment as Waymo and car companies. "Sell at a loss but make it up in volume" probably doesn't work well for many :)

I read your comment twice. You only mention Uber and not "Waymo and car companies" unless your referring to a different comment of yours than the one I replied to here.

This was the only spot where I said anything about specific competitors: It seems they will be fighting off competition (car companies, Waymo, etc) that didn't have to spend money on lobbying

The bigger thing, though, is that you keep implying that I said Lyft was somehow in a better spot. Now you're noting I never mentioned Lyft.

Nothing I'm saying is affected one way or other by Lyft. Pointing out that they have the same problem doesn't change the rationale.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#68

Post by yawaworht12 »

tyingq wrote: post #62
yawaworht12 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is blinded by the large number like $3 billion. That's not the number that matterS. All the companies in this market are subsidizing rides (except maybe the traditional taxis). What matters is how much each ride is being subsidized. A while back another user did this math using leaked financials from Uber and Lyft and Lyft deserves more criticism for subsidizing rides than Uber: https://news.ycombinator.com/…

Sure. But noting that the same model isn't working for anyone doesn't change anything I said.

It does change it a bit. If one is more efficient than the others and is improving efficiency/utilization faster than others, then eventually that company will eventually be able to compete on price while others are forced to subsidize. At that point they can just wait out the other competitor until the investors in those competitors tire of throwing good money after bad.

Subsidies don't work at scale. The bigger the ridesharing market gets, the less a company can meaningfully provide a subsidy that changes consumer behavior. Whichever company can get to breakeven before R&D and capital investments are taken into account is going to clean up because at that point they can outlast their competitors indefinitely.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#69

Post by tyingq »

yawaworht12 wrote: post #68
tyingq wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. But noting that the same model isn't working for anyone doesn't change anything I said.

It does change it a bit. If one is more efficient than the others and is improving efficiency/utilization faster than others, then eventually that company will eventually be able to compete on price while others are forced to subsidize. At that point they can just wait out the other competitor until the investors in those competitors tire of throwing good money after bad. Subsidies don't work at scale. The bigger the…

So, wait it out, and then raise prices? Assuming that won't affect demand I suppose. Give me a mountain of cash and I'll start a flat rate $25 airline and put everyone under. Then I'll raise prices when it's over. Guess what happens when the mountain of cash is gone and I have to charge something that makes margin? We're back to competing because my moat was artificial. Nobody has demonstrated a profitable quarter yet in this nuevo taxi game.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#70

Post by notyourwork »

ghaff wrote: post #48
notyourwork wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't irrelevant in the slightest if their plan is to replace all these contract drivers with automated cars. That would in fact be a long term business strategy. Considering waymo's lawsuit for alleged theft and their large monetary investment in self driving I disagree with being utterly irrelevant.

But if that replacement won't happen for 30 years which seems likely given the tech... One can disagree about timeframes but getting to the last 1000 feet in chaotic urban environments seems challenging.

Business models are based indirectly on available resources. I cannot have a business with a business model that says I want to fly to Jupiter if I don't realistically have the resources (cash/engineering) to do so. Therefore, whether it happens in 10 days or 100 years, the company is directly impacting its balance sheet and business model today by investing money and resources into automated cars.

What could Uber today with the resources being devoted to automated cars? Could the app be improved, could the route optimization algorithm be improved to create more ride shares? I and you won't know because those resources are going towards a different agenda today.

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