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Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

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Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#61

Post by henrikschroder »

mistermann wrote: post #33
bryanh wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.

Well, 1 thousand deaths now to achieve self sufficiency, or X deaths later, where x is likely much larger than 1 thousand. Not to mention, why the fuck in this day and age is the west still responsible for African people eating? We have the technology, the entire country has been geographically analyzed for where maximum food can be produced, etc etc. It is not a geographical problem, it is a political and cultural p…

But things are improving.

http://www.gapminder.org

The GNP and life expectancy of Africa is about as good as it was in the western world around 1930, that's not exactly stone-age, and the situation is steadily improving. They'll get there.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#62

Post by wendroid »

wendroid wrote: post #32
ModelCitizen wrote: post #17

A note on the rest of the series: He spends the remaining time outlining some impending Malthusian catastrophe / peak oil scenario. For a counterpoint, check out anything by Julian Simon.

Yeah, JS is pretty good, he's going to win some stuff http://www.motogp.com/en/riders/profiles/julian+simon

humourless dolts

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#63

Post by dagw »

wazoox wrote: post #57
mhartl wrote: post #37

Before people freak out about exponential growth, please consider John McCarthy's Slogan. (Yes, that John McCarthy; Lisp isn't the only thing he's done.) He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense. http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html Based on reactions to this video (among other things), I'd add Hartl's Counterpoint: Just because you're willing to do arithmetic doesn't mean you're n…

Huh. This guy is simply making the very basic point that politicians, economists and bankers selling us "growth" as a solution to unemployment, debt, etc are plainly lying. Growth (population, GDP, energy availability, etc) will stop at some point. An economy that relies entirely on growth to merely function is doomed to fail spectacularly at some point in time.

I agree that population growth cannot go on forever (although I consider doubling the current number quite likely). However I see no reason why energy availability can't keep growing for many many centuries to come. We aren't tapping the full potential of nuclear fission, to say nothing about fusion. Things like solar energy in all its variations is also a source we basically aren't using at all. Give us 50-100 years an we'll no doubt come up with some new source of energy we haven't even considered yet.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#64

Post by henrikschroder »

KingOfB wrote: post #22

Anyone find any good graphs about population growth? I asked wolframalpha and was pretty dissapointed, google found this article which I found interesting. Second graph in particular. Seems at 1000 and 1400 there were some drastic growth rate shifts. http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/12/18/1387/0641

From another comment:

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-stops-population-growth...

You can play with the data here: http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly...

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#65

Post by stck »

rjett wrote: post #16
redorb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

give me some context; how many meters per a person are we at currently? / Then give me some focus; what will it be at in my life span... 50 years?

Using data from the 2000 US Census, Manhattan, the United States' most dense city, had 25,836 people per square km or 0.025836 people per square meter.

That's roughly 38 square meters per person. For the most dense city, that's plenty of space.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#66

Post by gursikh »

mhartl wrote: post #37

Before people freak out about exponential growth, please consider John McCarthy's Slogan. (Yes, that John McCarthy; Lisp isn't the only thing he's done.) He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense. http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html Based on reactions to this video (among other things), I'd add Hartl's Counterpoint: Just because you're willing to do arithmetic doesn't mean you're n…

Dr. Albert A. Bartlett is fully cognizant of that point. He says in part 8 of that video:

  "Except for the petroleum graphs, the things I tell you are
  not predictions of the future. I am only reporting facts and
  the results of some very simple arithmetic." (1:22)
He acknowledges the potential fallibility of his estimations. He goes on to say:

  "Please you check the facts. Please check my arithmetic. if
  you find errors, please let me know. But if you don't find
  errors, I hope you take this very very seriously."

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#67

Post by stck »

chrischen2 wrote: post #39

Well one benefit of increasing population is that we increase the chances of geniuses being born, and increase the diversity of the population.

All we now need is a system for harvesting those geniuses. Who knows how many Srinivasa Ramanujans the world has lost.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#68

Post by netcan »

A lot to learn from this video about explaining things:

- Know your stuff. It's obvious he's been over all of this hundreds of times.

- Figure out great analogies and other aids. Part 3: 5:20 he makes an analogy out of multiplying bacteria in a bottle that fill it in an hour to show us at what point of the exponential function you notice your in one. It's got two parts and is very effective. It allows him to say things like "5 minutes before the bottle is full."

- Introduce your aids gradually and keep using them. Make clever decisions about your aids and make sure they accumulate to a powerful toolset. After that analogy which all the time he introduces the analogy above he has:

  - A trick for calculating doubling time 70/annual growth in %
  - A graph
  - A table 
  - An example (Boulder) that he keeps running scenarios on. 
  - The bacteria analogy
By the time he's 20-30 minutes into a lecture, this guy has a very powerful vocabulary built up. He can take something like oil consumption and examine it with you very quickly using these tools. The bacteria in a bottle analogy is a great example of this. Once he's explained it (kind of hard) and practised it once or twice, he can say "What time is it?" and immediately have his audience understand something relatively complex. .

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#69

Post by fgf »

wazoox wrote: post #57
mhartl wrote: post #37

Before people freak out about exponential growth, please consider John McCarthy's Slogan. (Yes, that John McCarthy; Lisp isn't the only thing he's done.) He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense. http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html Based on reactions to this video (among other things), I'd add Hartl's Counterpoint: Just because you're willing to do arithmetic doesn't mean you're n…

Huh. This guy is simply making the very basic point that politicians, economists and bankers selling us "growth" as a solution to unemployment, debt, etc are plainly lying. Growth (population, GDP, energy availability, etc) will stop at some point. An economy that relies entirely on growth to merely function is doomed to fail spectacularly at some point in time.

nuclear power could deliver far more energy per year than is used yearly now for thousands of years. Innovation makes energy more useful. When the potential for growth these two cause is exhausted there's scifi stuff; solar power from satellites around the sun; fusion; etc.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#70

Post by seabee »

fgf wrote: post #69
wazoox wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh. This guy is simply making the very basic point that politicians, economists and bankers selling us "growth" as a solution to unemployment, debt, etc are plainly lying. Growth (population, GDP, energy availability, etc) will stop at some point. An economy that relies entirely on growth to merely function is doomed to fail spectacularly at some point in time.

nuclear power could deliver far more energy per year than is used yearly now for thousands of years. Innovation makes energy more useful. When the potential for growth these two cause is exhausted there's scifi stuff; solar power from satellites around the sun; fusion; etc.

Right, but it's still finite to some degree, and selling people on growth which we cannot guarantee is possible is just plain irresponsible IMO.
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