Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

India floats the idea of a universal basic income

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 252 posts

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#61

Post by tarr11 »

foxylad wrote: post #58
felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

> b) the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be True - as a whole . But as things stand now, the owners of the machines get richer, and the displaced workers get significantly poorer. My concern is this. In ten years time, trucks and taxis will be automated, and vanishingly few truck drivers will be able to retrain as truck computer techs. Truck and taxi driving is the last bastio…

The average age of a commercial truck driver in the US is 55. Many of these people will be retired, and younger people are (rightfully) avoiding this industry.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#62

Post by [deleted] »

meanduck wrote: post #49

Here some official fact http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/data... For 2012-13 FY, 12.5 Million (1%) paid any Income tax, averaging Rs 21,000 ($350). The 3 individuals in the top-bracket of Rs 100-500 crore ($16M-$83M) paid a total tax of Rs 437 crore ($72M) — resulting in an average tax outgo of Rs 145.80 crore ($24M). Indian statists cant help but screw the country funders even more. Disgusting…

[deleted]

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#63

Post by tn13 »

jjoonathan wrote: post #56
felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

Human desire may be infinite, but that doesn't mean there is an infinite source of jobs if we just try hard enough. Problem 1: the economic notion of value is weighted by wealth, but the notion of "human desire" you discuss is not. Entertaining a king is valuable, in the economic sense, but feeding and housing a poor is not. It doesn't matter if there are plenty of things that people want to be done, it matters if th…

> but that doesn't mean there is an infinite source of jobs if we just try hard enough. Job = Time.

As long as human beings can use their muscles and brains in the time to change outcome of some events and as long as people vary in their ability to do so, I think jobs will always exist.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#64

Post by devwastaken »

felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

>the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be, as products and services automated tend to be cheaper.

There is no such thing as trickle down economics. Wealth does not get distributed in equal to its gain, it is distributed based upon many other markets. For example, if your company makes double this year, you're not going to get paid any more than you were, but if what you said was true, you should be getting paid near double. Infact, how much wealth your company makes has little to do with how much you will be paid when it comes to investment. You're going to get paid what you can negotiate for, which will be competative to the market of other individuals. Just because your company is doing good does not mean they're going to pay anywhere near double for their employees when they can get them at market rate, which is always pressured to be lower.

The products also don't have to be cheaper. Infact I don't know of any good examples of automation making things cheaper that aren't just competing with other products. Products do not have to be priced near what they cost to make, as examplified by apple products and tech in general. They're priced to what people give it value, which is manipulated by advertising and patents/copyrights that give them the ability others need or want.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#65

Post by harryh »

foxylad wrote: post #58
felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

> b) the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be True - as a whole . But as things stand now, the owners of the machines get richer, and the displaced workers get significantly poorer. My concern is this. In ten years time, trucks and taxis will be automated, and vanishingly few truck drivers will be able to retrain as truck computer techs. Truck and taxi driving is the last bastio…

The US suicide rate has been pretty flat for about 50 years. There was a decent drop from the mid 80s until 2000 that has since reverted to norm but it's not historically high.

Increasing automation of lower skilled jobs has been going on for a long time. It's hard to see that correlating with any increase in the suicide rate.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#66

Post by harryh »

devwastaken wrote: post #64
felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

>the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be, as products and services automated tend to be cheaper. There is no such thing as trickle down economics. Wealth does not get distributed in equal to its gain, it is distributed based upon many other markets. For example, if your company makes double this year, you're not going to get paid any more than you were, but if what you said was…

If a particular company is making outsized profits other firms will enter the market to capture them. Those firms will bid up the cost of the labor necessary to serve the market.

The historic share of labor as a % of GDP is pretty constant. It has dipped slightly in the last ~15 years and some people see this as the beginning of a major change but that's highly speculative.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#67

Post by whack »

felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

The reasoning you're using is very flawed. Yes, we'll never get to a state where a small number end up with 100% of the wealth. Yes, there will be an equilibrium reached between the wealthy and the middle class. But this equilibrium point can shift more and more towards the wealthy. In fact, this has already been happening in the past few decades, as illustrated in books such as Capital.

And as this equilibrium shifts in favor of the wealthy, you'll see the effects of inequality get more and more exacerbated. You might even get to a point where the inequality is so extreme, that the "masses" have much more to gain through wealth appropriation, as opposed to wealth creation. And when that point comes, democracy will collapse and give way to a communist or fascist revolution.

Basic income offers an escape valve to the corrosive effects of inequality. It distributes more fairly the fruits of globalisation and automation. It gives every citizen a share in the national prosperity. It gives us all a reason to cheer for the greater good, and not just our own advancement.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#68

Post by ouid »

felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

I present the analogy of the obsolete computer for your consideration.

Perhaps it is the case that what the market decides is best for people who cannot perform any task more efficiently than a computer is to simply stop being powered.

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#69

Post by tluyben2 »

NeutronBoy wrote: post #43
felipeccastro wrote: post #38

I used to think a universal basic income would make sense, especially in developed countries, only for the near future scenario of machines taking ever more jobs. We know that this has always happened in history, and new jobs were always created, but that doesn't mean that the rate of job creation vs destruction will remain the same, forever. What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires…

> What made me change my mind about UBI was to realize that a) human desires are infinite, and there'll always be more work to be done and b) the more work is done by machines, the richer the population as a whole will be, as products and services automated tend to be cheaper. I agree with this sentiment. Looking into the (very long term) future, it's interesting to look at a fictional post-scarcity society (Star Tre…

You work, in that case, but not for money. There might be a lot of work but a lot of that work might be not something anyone wants to pay for. Hell, things we do want, like nurses and teachers we already do not pay enough for, let alone all kinds of niche things. A lot of people who do not have to work still work, and while not many of that kind of worker pops up on HN, many millionaires I know do work in their or other communities, for no money; they also help out with their money. People who like to work, will work, people who want to live on holodecks will live on holodecks. And that is fine. Why would anyone care if we are post scarcity / full UBI?

Re: India floats the idea of a universal basic income

#70

Post by jjoonathan »

tn13 wrote: post #63
jjoonathan wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human desire may be infinite, but that doesn't mean there is an infinite source of jobs if we just try hard enough. Problem 1: the economic notion of value is weighted by wealth, but the notion of "human desire" you discuss is not. Entertaining a king is valuable, in the economic sense, but feeding and housing a poor is not. It doesn't matter if there are plenty of things that people want to be done, it matters if th…

> but that doesn't mean there is an infinite source of jobs if we just try hard enough. Job = Time. As long as human beings can use their muscles and brains in the time to change outcome of some events and as long as people vary in their ability to do so, I think jobs will always exist.

It's not about jobs existing, it's about jobs existing at . We're far from that point now, so how am I supposed to take comfort in a technical argument that it won't get worse than ?
Post reply on HN