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Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

indiehackers.com

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Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#61

Post by danvoell »

kyleschiller wrote: post #33

Publication bias is a gigantic problem for amateur FinTech. How many hundreds of engineers tried the same thing and won't get an article on the front page of HN because no one wants to read about mediocre performance? I don't want to sound too skeptical, quantitative HFT is absolutely the future, but if enough people try something that's effectively gambling, some of them are bound to succeed, and those people will g…

It's ok Kyle, I'm with ya. I like most indiehackers articles but this one didn't really provide the same level of insight as most. I made over 150% returns on bitcoin in the last 13 months.... and I did nothing.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#62

Post by [deleted] »

ucaetano wrote: post #60
alva wrote: post #52

Reposting my comment on the first HN submission of this page "The claims made in this interview are extremely suspect, it just not make sense. Absolutely no relevant details are included. The developer claims he was able to built an AI trading strategy that is profitable 95% of the time. No technical details about the strategy or platform for trading is provided. A few trading buzzwords thrown in a few places. The re…

Do you have a link to the original version? It looks fake enough as it is, I wonder how much bad it could be. But hey, maybe this guy really cracked the market, and a Nobel prize and billions of USDs are on the way...

[deleted]

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#63

Post by [deleted] »

machbio wrote: post #18
sebyddd wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't disclose the exact capital, but the initial investment was less than the monthly profit.

not to criticize you, but this seems to have no logic - "My bot holds a single position from seconds to minutes (sometimes even hours), which makes it more of an automated trader than a high frequency trader" - so your initial investment was less than 25K$,meaning you would be tagged has Pattern Daily Trader with account freeze for 90 days - how does your Algorithm even work with that kind of investment ? Definitely…

[deleted]

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#64

Post by alva »

danvoell wrote: post #61
kyleschiller wrote: post #33

Publication bias is a gigantic problem for amateur FinTech. How many hundreds of engineers tried the same thing and won't get an article on the front page of HN because no one wants to read about mediocre performance? I don't want to sound too skeptical, quantitative HFT is absolutely the future, but if enough people try something that's effectively gambling, some of them are bound to succeed, and those people will g…

It's ok Kyle, I'm with ya. I like most indiehackers articles but this one didn't really provide the same level of insight as most. I made over 150% returns on bitcoin in the last 13 months.... and I did nothing.

Thats very different from having 95% success buying and selling. He isn't stating a 95% return, but that the algorithm works 95% of the time. This is unheard of, let alone from someone who started learning finance 5 months ago.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#65

Post by svantana »

alva wrote: post #52

Reposting my comment on the first HN submission of this page "The claims made in this interview are extremely suspect, it just not make sense. Absolutely no relevant details are included. The developer claims he was able to built an AI trading strategy that is profitable 95% of the time. No technical details about the strategy or platform for trading is provided. A few trading buzzwords thrown in a few places. The re…

Agree 100% (see my top level comment for more incriminating evidence) and while this is the worst one yet, I feel earlier indiehacker articles have had similar problems -- exaggerating success and achievements for personal gain. If indiehacker wants to save their reputation, they need to editorialize more IMHO.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#66

Post by joemi »

svantana wrote: post #59

I may be way to cynical for my own good, but there's no proof that this is actually real, right? Besides a couple of pretty bizarre screenshots [1]. I'm skeptical because a) these types of gains in public markets are pretty much unheard of, and b) faking a story like this would be a fairly easy way of getting lots of attention for your freelancer business (which this guy advertises right at the top of the article). […

Not arguing at all about being skeptical, but regarding 'cat' it's entirely possible they just had the wrong file extension on that ascii art chart. I've definitely given some plaintext files incorrect extensions if I knew I'd be wanting to open them (or quicklook them) in some program that usually ignores the correct extension.

The general vagueness of the post is a much much much stronger reason to be skeptical, imo.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#67

Post by csallen »

ucaetano wrote: post #60
alva wrote: post #52

Reposting my comment on the first HN submission of this page "The claims made in this interview are extremely suspect, it just not make sense. Absolutely no relevant details are included. The developer claims he was able to built an AI trading strategy that is profitable 95% of the time. No technical details about the strategy or platform for trading is provided. A few trading buzzwords thrown in a few places. The re…

Do you have a link to the original version? It looks fake enough as it is, I wonder how much bad it could be. But hey, maybe this guy really cracked the market, and a Nobel prize and billions of USDs are on the way...

The changes were to add details explaining the 95% "success rate", the sources of data, and the exchange that he was using.

I think you guys are both creating a false dichotomy between "genius who cracked the market" and "liar who is fabricating data", when there is plenty of room in between, e.g. "someone who made a few lucky trades in a bull market over a short period of time," which would describe probably the vast majority of "winners" in the stock market.

It's the equivalent of asserting that everyone who plays a slot machine must break even, when in reality some people win and some people lose.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#68

Post by brilliantcode »

svantana wrote: post #59

I may be way to cynical for my own good, but there's no proof that this is actually real, right? Besides a couple of pretty bizarre screenshots [1]. I'm skeptical because a) these types of gains in public markets are pretty much unheard of, and b) faking a story like this would be a fairly easy way of getting lots of attention for your freelancer business (which this guy advertises right at the top of the article). […

I also felt like this article was very strange, almost too good to be true, not really discussing downside risks associated with each position.

It's possible to generate a highly profitable and successful trading system but it's the expected probability factoring in the worst case downside scenarios that really matters.

After all, you could win 9 out of 10 times but that 1 time is where you blow up.

Right now, I'm putting my wall street hat on and calling this bullshit. A naive software developer will not be able to see the potential pitfall of holy grail systems-they do not exist.

I also question if it's really HFT, the bar is really high to get low latency connection but he's only making 3.5k/month...it just doesn't make sense.

And why would you publish your system and say oops I can't tell you anything about it?

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#69

Post by samfisher83 »

brianwawok wrote: post #26
samfisher83 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he invested less than the monthly profit he it means he making more than 100%. That is pretty insane.

You can make more than 100% going to the slot machine at the casino. The difference between gambling and trading is not that big. Trading has more ways where you can get an edge over the house, but it is not that different from poker or slot machines.

If you make a million spins of $1 each you will end with $800000 or whatever the state law is regarding payout. In general an index fund will go up since most economic policies are geared toward inflation.

Re: Neural Net Side Project Makes $3500/mo Trading Stocks

#70

Post by svantana »

joemi wrote: post #66
svantana wrote: post #59

I may be way to cynical for my own good, but there's no proof that this is actually real, right? Besides a couple of pretty bizarre screenshots [1]. I'm skeptical because a) these types of gains in public markets are pretty much unheard of, and b) faking a story like this would be a fairly easy way of getting lots of attention for your freelancer business (which this guy advertises right at the top of the article). […

Not arguing at all about being skeptical, but regarding 'cat' it's entirely possible they just had the wrong file extension on that ascii art chart. I've definitely given some plaintext files incorrect extensions if I knew I'd be wanting to open them (or quicklook them) in some program that usually ignores the correct extension. The general vagueness of the post is a much much much stronger reason to be skeptical, im…

Yes that's entirely possible, but my main point was that the chart looks really hand-made (by someone who doesn't really know what they're doing). I don't really see how an ascii data visualization tool would spit out such an abomination...
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