61–70 of 214 posts
Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…
good indicators
- Stock Market Capitalization to GDP (This is Warren Buffets's favorite). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB?
- Q Ratio aka Tobin's Q Ratio (total price of the market divided by its replacement cost)
- S&P 500 CAPE (PE10) and Shiller PE (PE)
- S&P 500 Price to Book Value
None of them alone, but all of them together.
Would be great for Republicans if this boom persists through the 2018 midterm elections. When Trump's trade policies take hold there should be a rush to form manufacturing startups to make stuff in the USA for the industrial supply chain, e.g. power cords, circuit boards, paints, etc. I expect these to form in the traditional centers of manufacturing excellence - urban areas where minorities will enjoy relative job p…
Can the US really make power cords cheaper than China or Vietnam? If they add tariffs to imports I'm sure they can but is manufacturing for the domestic market alone enough to create sustainable jobs?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Depends which 75% of regulations he cuts. If he cuts EPA regulations and there is more pollution as a result of the increase in manufacturing this could result in more deaths in the long run. How about safety regulations get cut so manufacturing gets cheaper but more workers die in manufacturing plants, is that ok?
Fine, but what if there is a chance that the huge heap of regulations supporting entrenched interests is broken up? I'm looking at you Comcast
Bonus: when Trump "freezes the size of Federal employment" do you think that will be match by a freeze in contracting, or a boost in crony contracts?
Remember when nearly the entire business media predicted that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash immediately? Some of my smartest friends (at hedge funds) placed large bets mid to late 2016 that the market would decline. Now here we are. The lesson isn't that Trump is awesome for the economy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) or that the market won't crash tomorrow (maybe it will, maybe it won't) but rather…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Irrational market.
Without trying to be snarky, this sounds like a post-hoc rationalization. How do you differentiate between an irrational market and a bad prediction? I'm honestly at a loss
Would be great for Republicans if this boom persists through the 2018 midterm elections. When Trump's trade policies take hold there should be a rush to form manufacturing startups to make stuff in the USA for the industrial supply chain, e.g. power cords, circuit boards, paints, etc. I expect these to form in the traditional centers of manufacturing excellence - urban areas where minorities will enjoy relative job p…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Depends which 75% of regulations he cuts. If he cuts EPA regulations and there is more pollution as a result of the increase in manufacturing this could result in more deaths in the long run. How about safety regulations get cut so manufacturing gets cheaper but more workers die in manufacturing plants, is that ok?
Fine, but what if there is a chance that the huge heap of regulations supporting entrenched interests is broken up? I'm looking at you Comcast
If you had a bunch of money to put in the stock market, would you: - Put 1/3 of it in now and the other 2/3 in when the next crash hits - Wait until it all goes to shit and put it all in then, keeping it in a high-yield savings account until then (they make about as much as CDs these days) Would love to hear opinions!
I typically just invest it all at once with no attempt to time the market.
If i'm really nervous, i might make 12 equal investments over a year. Again, no attempt to time the market.
The only time i've ever timed my investment based on the market is buying post crash. Getting a 3% return over a week was nice after the brexit slump.