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I estimate human population to peak in 2065

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Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#61

Post by naasking »

pierrec wrote: post #54
Balgair wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so for everyone that can barely use that terrible website, the number that they have in 2050 is 9.71 billion. Someone else can try to figure out how to download that data and then give an actual estimate as to when the population will flat-line. Maybe find a way to get it into excel and then apply a log fit to it, or soemthing. Hell, I ain't gonna mess with that terrible site again. Edit: Forgot to thank my paren…

It seems their data is based on UN research, who publishes regular population projections. The latest revision, published in 2015, apparently only goes up to 2100, at which point they still predict growth. However, if you look at projected growth as it's presented in this article: http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/rapid-slowdown-... You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it…

> You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it in 2100, giving a maximum sometime around 2115.

You're not reading that data correctly, or perhaps, you're simply not accounting for the death rate. The death rate will surpass the growth rate in those projections somewhere between 2050-2080, which means population peak will be in that time frame, not a century from now.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#62

Post by Balgair »

pierrec wrote: post #54
Balgair wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so for everyone that can barely use that terrible website, the number that they have in 2050 is 9.71 billion. Someone else can try to figure out how to download that data and then give an actual estimate as to when the population will flat-line. Maybe find a way to get it into excel and then apply a log fit to it, or soemthing. Hell, I ain't gonna mess with that terrible site again. Edit: Forgot to thank my paren…

It seems their data is based on UN research, who publishes regular population projections. The latest revision, published in 2015, apparently only goes up to 2100, at which point they still predict growth. However, if you look at projected growth as it's presented in this article: http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/rapid-slowdown-... You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it…

Ok, I get what the article you linked to is saying, but I think it's really uninformative. Those graphs are the derivative of the population. What I would most like to see is the absolute number of people on earth over time and then into the future. The derivative, though important, is not as useful (to me) as the absolute number. Hans Rosling has some good TED talks on it, but I think they are probably out of date by now.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#63

Post by kowdermeister »

Can someone enlighten me how did he end up prediction extinction by 2300? I see words, but it makes no sense to me.

Even if it correctly peaks at 2065, even if it declines, it should stop at a stable level since most developed nations usually have 1-2 child per family today. I cannot imagine the next generations doing nothing with a laid back attitude and slowly let us die out because nobody wants to make babies :)

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#65

Post by disordinary »

tbirrell wrote: post #11

"The table above already shows that birth rates go to zero by 2065." Uh.... This seems incorrect. Sure we can extrapolate the declining birthrate all the way down to zero, but realistically it will level out somewhere since humans will never stop producing more humans. Granted it might be a lower birthrate, but never 0.

We're already seeing governments like Russia imploring people to reproduce and giving incentives to do so. Also low birth rates in developed countries are in-part affected by the need for both parents to build careers, if the world economy collapses because of declining population (which results in a lack of growth and also soaring healthcare expenses) then we'll probably see reproduction increase again - especially if coupled with the above mentioned incentives.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#68

Post by goradyne »

earthtolazlo wrote: post #16

Why do almost no population projections take climate change into account? We're rapidly heading towards a much less habitable earth. The projections I've seen with Africa at a population of 3-4 billion people by 2100 would be laughable if the whole situation wasn't so damn tragic.

1. NOT the whole world is heating up. It varies and some places are cooling, but no, generalise. 2. Areas like Russia and upper Asia will provide more arable land, these countries will experience a boon 3. The problem isn't the world, the problem is the sky high population growth in Africa/Middle East. Google "Population of ANY AFRICAN/MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRY"

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#69

Post by stcredzero »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #56
stcredzero wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we're looking at global famines that billions of people are unlikely to survive If I were part of a shadowy oligarchic cabal running the world, I'd be willing to trade-in worldwide chaos for the 21st century equivalent of a Hydraulic empire, where technologically enabled food production replaces irrigation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_empire Conspiracy trash aside, if there are billions to be made helping…

>Conspiracy trash aside, if there are billions to be made helping the world avoid yet another Malthusian disaster, someone will make it. Who made their millions off the Irish potato famine, other than the British businesspeople who caused the famine by making Irish food unaffordable to the Irish?

Well there, you said it yourself. There were tariffs causing a market distortion at play. People were already making money off of that, and acted to protect it. That's not the only Malthusian disaster the world has faced.

Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065

#70

Post by aplummer »

goradyne wrote: post #68
earthtolazlo wrote: post #16

Why do almost no population projections take climate change into account? We're rapidly heading towards a much less habitable earth. The projections I've seen with Africa at a population of 3-4 billion people by 2100 would be laughable if the whole situation wasn't so damn tragic.

1. NOT the whole world is heating up. It varies and some places are cooling, but no, generalise. 2. Areas like Russia and upper Asia will provide more arable land, these countries will experience a boon 3. The problem isn't the world, the problem is the sky high population growth in Africa/Middle East. Google "Population of ANY AFRICAN/MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRY "

Incorrect, The whole world is heating up except See: http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine
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