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Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

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Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#61

While this article is probably wrong (I don't know what the economic impact of the fax machine was, but I suspect a lot smaller than the Internet), we should probably all be asking ourselves whether the economic impact of our industry is really all that big. Looking at the profit of companies like Google and Facebook overstates the impact for them. They are making tons of money, but a lot of that is just a shift in t…

>> And if you think I'm wrong, ask yourself why GDP growth has been so anemic in the age of the Internet. GDP is the wrong figure. As we've pulled up the ladder and pushed people out of the workforce our net GDP has leveled off, but non-farm labour productivity has continued the rapid pace characteristic of the US economy, hitting an all time peak in 2015. We're getting more value out of fewer people. Some part of th…

Where are you getting your numbers? I've read that productivity growth was quite bad for most of the 2000s (you're right that 2016 was good). Also, you can't just write off decreased labor force participation by pointing to higher productivity, since many times in the 20th century, you had high labor force participation and high productivity growth.

P.S. Attacks on Krugman seem pretty non-responsive to what I said, but this is 1998, prior to Krugman's heavy involvement in partisan politics, an involvement which may not have made him more...careful.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#62

Also "Why the web won't be a nirvana" http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirva...

>What the Internet hucksters won't tell you is that the Internet is one big ocean of unedited data, without any pretense of completeness. Lacking editors, reviewers or critics, the Internet has become a wasteland of unfiltered data. You don't know what to ignore and what's worth reading. Except he's correct. The web has become a disinformation, fake news, and conspiracy theory bonanza. Finding good information still…

>The web has become a disinformation, fake news, and conspiracy theory bonanza.

Yes, conspiracy theories like Russia hacked the election.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#63
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And if you think I'm wrong, ask yourself why GDP growth has been so anemic in the age of the Internet. Global GDP growth has been fairly steady for 40+ years. http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Global%20Growth%20Monit...

Yes, but that owes heavily to growth in pre-internet industries in developing nations. Unless the Internet is a crucial enabler of that growth (possible, but not a given!) the more relevant question concerns growth in the developed world, which has been lower.

You're trying to find growth that is directly attributable to the internet, which is fairly futile in my view because the internet is not in itself a means of production.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, I'm not trying to commit the broken window fallacy. I'm just saying that, for example, if there was a disease that caused a lot of pain, and it was suddenly cured, the reduction in measured economic activity associated with managing that disease might outweigh the measured increased productivity and redeployment of resources and labour. (Maybe something like arthritis, say: usually worst after most people are ret…

I think you're still making it, just in a more subtle way. What happens to the money those people spend on arthritis treatment?

Of course, that money is redeployed, which is good. The point is that, in the case of something like chronic pain, it is very difficult to measure the level of pain, but easy to measure the money spent on it. So, it can be challenging to compare.

Or, to go back to technology, take Facebook for example. Perhaps people would have liked to have a social networking site before, but it simply wasn't available. When it became available, many people used it and enjoyed it in their leisure time. Because it's free, and, while large, does not pull very large revenues per user, it doesn't show up as a major economic activity. And because it's used mostly as an end-consumer leisure activity, it is missed by indicators that don't measure this well. So there can be a substantial total increase in services enjoyed, and we might be missing it. Again - might. I cannot say for sure, but it's worth asking.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#65
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Krugman often reviews his past predictions and admits when he is wrong: http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/31524-ten-years-later-...

Then why does he keep making them? And getting paid to make them? Generally if you are hired to do something, and fail at it multiple times, you are fired, and in the case of potentially moving markets and affecting livelihoods, you should be banned from ever saying anything again!

A fair question. It really sheds light on how most of the media make their money: by kicking up drama within the boundaries of our own belief systems, not by being accurate. He is hired to stir up the pot and he does that well, because we are poor at critical thinking.

We can learn this from the Chomsky/Zinn's media manipulation model.....

....or simply from Criswell's monologue to Ed Wood.

If you were to corner most newspaper editors, they would simply say "it's up to readers to do research and make up their minds" or "we provide a service by stimulating conversation and making you think." These are both true, but don't undo the damage caused by sending us careening around in fear and uncertainty by whipping us into perpetual emotional dissonance.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big, Professional mistakes

He calls it "The Conscience of a Liberal" and then says "So yes, I’ve been wrong. Let those who are without error cast the first stone." Krugman is a good example of what's gone amiss with liberalism. Even worse than his many errors, is his hypocrisy. He very loudly accused Amazon of being a "monopsony" during Amazon's most recent dust-up with the big publishers, on grounds that its market power would enable it to hu…

> Krugman is a good example of what's gone amiss with liberalism.

The entire left side of the aisle? But, not any other people? Hmmm.

> He very loudly accused Amazon of being a "monopsony" during Amazon's most recent dust-up with the big publishers, on grounds that its market power would enable it to hurt consumers, although he acknowledged, Amazon hadn't used its economic power that way.

Well, they are a giant player with immense power that already dictates things to its supply chain...

And the important thing to do is recognize risks before the problems manifest. It wouldn't be any good to tell you your garage was full of flammable rags after your house burned down.

> Yet, Krugman goes along with this exploitation, and presumably banks very large royalties for himself at student's expense.

Compared to wages, speaking fees, etc? I doubt it.

But nonetheless, you do have a good point about textbooks being exorbitantly priced. When we provide student-loans, schools increase tuition. If we gave children a billion dollars a year universities would still be pretending to be broke and asking for more.

IMHO, that's the racket we need to break. As long as there's a government license to print a "right to work" token (a degree), you'll have players entrench around it - like camping spawn spots. And as always, the less effective the school is at teaching the more resources they have for political battles.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're still making it, just in a more subtle way. What happens to the money those people spend on arthritis treatment?

Of course, that money is redeployed, which is good. The point is that, in the case of something like chronic pain, it is very difficult to measure the level of pain, but easy to measure the money spent on it. So, it can be challenging to compare. Or, to go back to technology, take Facebook for example. Perhaps people would have liked to have a social networking site before, but it simply wasn't available. When it bec…

Gotcha. I definitely agree that there can be consumer surplus not captured by GDP.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#68
post #9

While he is wrong about the impact of the internet economically. He isn't wrong that technology progress has been disappointing. When you grow up believing you will be driving flying cars and seeing robots help you around the house, how else are you supposed to feel? It is only now that computing power has started to enable old AI techniques such as neural nets, which were once impractical are now starting to be reas…

you, my friend, are taking the 21st century for granted. we already live in the future.

When you grow up believing you will be driving flying cars and seeing robots help you around the house, how else are you supposed to feel?

we have flying cars. they're called private jets, but most people can't afford them. we have to take the flying bus! we've had robots in our homes for a while. do they have to be anthropomorphic to count, or what?

I am also disappointed in how closed and centralized the applications that run on the internet have become since the internet was privatized. Where we used to have decentralized systems in the 80s to late 90s, we now have huge star (wheel and spoke) networks.

internet applications may be closed and centralized, but i think you are forgetting about the mountains of free/open software that those systems are built upon. life-changing mountains of software. foss is the foundation that a lot of careers (including my own) are built upon.

obviously it would be better if we were all on an open source distributed net, but its not like it isn't a solvable problem. we just have to be more creative.

We have invented the most important tool in the history of humanity and it's being used by billions of people to look at Facebook instead of say, solving real problems like climate change.

the internet is a communication network that people use for a lot of different things, including working to solve climate change.

i don't think we've figured out social networking quite yet. or the internet for that matter. i think its all quite exciting! so much new shit happening all of the time. not only that, but i have the opportunity to be a part of it. i may not be the person that ends up in the history books, but i'm here at ground zero.

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "a fun, let's make some provocative predictions type article" sounds like something very unprofessional to me. Also there seems to be a suspicious pattern of claiming exactly that after such an embarrassing prediction is made. I doubt the same would be claimed if he had happened to be right about the internet and the information economy.

> "a fun, let's make some provocative predictions type article" sounds like something very unprofessional to me. Knuth was published in the very unprofessional Mad Magazine. What's your point?

Knuth wasn't wrong. His potrzebie system is detailed and consistent. ;-)

Re: Krugman: Internet’s Economic Impact No Greater Than Fax Machine (1998)

#70
post #29

I'm still curious to know what are the "Internet Economic Impact". This article was written before the net bubble. So far all I see in the economics of internet is netflix replacing DVDs, twitter/facebook/online presence (which is advertising, which means little to me), and... that's it. Other domains like online gaming are not that great in term of economic impact. Amazon is closing book and movie stores. I can see…

Go talk to your cable provider or local newspaper about how the internet hasn't had much economic impact.

As I said, impact, not improvement
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