This AI Boom Will Also Bust • Hacker News Board

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#61

Post by noobermin » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:04 PM UTC

sgt101 wrote: post #31

IIIIIII wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying that linear regression is easier to do properly than more complex methods like random forests, DL, boosting etc is like saying that people should code assembly instead of python

You might be being really subtle about python there ! I realize that one can create lines of code like :_ = ( 255, lambda V ,B,c :c and Y(V V+B,B, c -1)if(abs(V) abs(V) -0.4)/i ) ;v, x=1500,1000;C=range(v x );import struct;P=struct.pack;M,\ j =' x 3+26,26,12,v,x,1,24))or C: i ,Y=_;j(P('BBB', (lambda T:(T 80+T 9 i-950 T 99,T 70-880 T 18+701 T 9 ,T i (1-T 45 2)))(sum( [ Y(0,(A%3/3.+X%v+(X/v+ A/3/3.-x/2)/1j) 2.5 /x -2.7…

You might want to do code formatting for that. Look at the help[0].

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/formatdoc

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#62

Post by kken » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:05 PM UTC

dheera wrote: post #39

pesenti wrote: post #11

When I was at Watson this is the first thing I told every customer: before you start with AI are you already doing the more mundane data science on your structured data? If not, you shouldn't go right away for the shiny object. This said I still believe the article is mistaken in its evaluation of potential impact (and its fuzzy metaphore of pipes). Unstructured or semi-structured or dirty data is much more prevalent…

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

Already happening. The activity in the TOF-field is crazy.

First project Tango smartphone will be out soon.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#63

Post by dekhn » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:07 PM UTC

spsgtn wrote: post #34

This reminds me of the stem cell research boom and bust of the late 90s and 00s. It turns out that the new and shiny toy doesn't work for everything. However, it's not really a bust, as AI, similar to stem cells applications, will continue to do wonders where it is the best tool for the job.

Stem cell research bust?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#64

Post by throw_away_777 » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:09 PM UTC

kristjankalm wrote: post #30

IIIIIII wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying that linear regression is easier to do properly than more complex methods like random forests, DL, boosting etc is like saying that people should code assembly instead of python

This is a false dichotomy. Both OLS regression and, say, random decision forest regression have the same objective (predict values) and achieve it with similar means (build a generative model / function). They solve the same problem. Contrastingly, assembler and python are broadly aimed at completely different use cases. Broadly, whether you should move from OLS to random forest regression = SNR increase / increase i…

It is actually much easier to apply a random forest (or really gradient boosted decision tree, which almost strictly dominates random forests) than a linear regression. Decision tree methods require far less data preprocessing than linear regression, because the model is able to infer feature relationships. Obviously if your features are linearly related to your target than linear regression is much more viable.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#65

Post by throw_away_777 » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:11 PM UTC

cardine wrote: post #20

chime wrote: post #2

> Good CS expert says: Most firms that think they want advanced AI/ML really just need linear regression on cleaned-up data. Cleaning up data is very expensive. And without that, the analysis is good for nothing. AI helps provide good analysis without having to cleaning up data manually. I don't see how that is going away.

> AI helps provide good analysis without having to cleaning up data manually. My own experience has shown that dirty data impacts advanced AI just as much as it impacts far more basic ML techniques. Even for the most advanced AI we work on, we spend just as much time worrying about clean data as we do anything else.

When you say "clean data", what exactly do you mean? I've often seen this claim that cleaning data takes a lot of time, but it seems like an ill-defined term.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#66

Post by bunderbunder » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:13 PM UTC

IIIIIII wrote: post #13

jeyoor wrote: post #5

This article matches what I've been seeing anecdotally (especially at smaller tech firms and universities in the Midwest US). I've been hearing more folks in research and industry express the importance of applying simpler techniques (like linear regression and decision trees) before reaching for the latest state-of-the-art approach. See also this response to the author's tweet on the subject: https://twitter.com/and…

Saying that linear regression is easier to do properly than more complex methods like random forests, DL, boosting etc is like saying that people should code assembly instead of python

Simple regression has a lot going for it beyond simply being a simpler model. For example, it produces models that are easy to interpret. That is an enormous advantage if you're looking to use data science to help drive strategic decisionmaking.

My personal suspicion is, in a market full of people who are using ever more sophisticated algorithms to ratchet up their customer conversion classifiers' F1 scores by .001 per iteration, the leader will be the company who's decided to steer clear of that quagmire and spend their time and money on identifying new business opportunities instead.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#67

Post by toomuchtodo » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:14 PM UTC

nwjtkjn wrote: post #38

toomuchtodo wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the people who'll be in trouble with be those without formal education to back them up. The people who can't hack it are those who'll be in trouble. Tech has never much been the place where credentials are necessary. Don't specialize and saddle yourself with years of college debt if you're unsure of the field's long term prospects.

FWIW, one does not accrue debt doing a PhD in something like Machine Learning.

Depending on the program, possibly. But a PhD is not required to learn nor work in machine learning.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#68

Post by PhasmaFelis » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

jroes wrote: post #42

thesimpsons1022 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried it? i own an oculus and every family member i've seen has been shocked and loved it. Obviously the oculus is prohibitively expensive but with the release of Playstation VR i think the mainstream is poised to adopt it. I really believe the next game consoles that come out will simply be vr headsets

I have tried it. I owned a PSVR for a month and tried everything available. It was a pretty incredible experience, more immersive than I expected for sure. Most of my family and friends had a great time with it as well. Ultimately, however, I resold it after a month. There are too few interesting full games available. Nearly every game is mostly a short trial, and most of the games are also very experimental and unin…

> Ultimately, however, I resold it after a month. There are too few interesting full games available.

That seems like a clear example of a problem that will correct itself with time.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#69

Post by petra » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:21 PM UTC

shmageggy wrote: post #48

Here's why the pipes metaphor is a bad one: we already are doing everything we can and ever will do with pipes. Pipes have been around for a really long time, we know what they are capable of, we've explored all of their uses. OTOH, the current progress in AI has enabled us to do things we couldn't do before and is pointing towards totally new applications. It's not about making existing functionality cheaper, or inc…

Another way the analogy breaks down: Let's think about cars/trucks. Let's say in the 1930's , they're only availble to big business. What do we get ? A few big companies(Walmart/Sears/etc) doing all retail, at significantly lower prices. A big change.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#70

Post by crimsonalucard » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:24 PM UTC

h43k3r wrote: post #28

A little off topic but I think the VR boom will bust much more sooner than AI. I can't think of normal people wearing those heavy gears in their normal life. There will be its use cases in specialized applications like education, industry, games but I don't think it will get popular like an iPhone. AR is still OK since it augments real life but there is a long way before it will become mainstream.

I don't think there is a VR boom. There's just early adopters right now. I'd agree with you if you said that a VR boom will never happen... I think VR will stay niche among a core set of gamers.