Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The World in 2076

newscientist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–69 of 69 posts

Re: The World in 2076

#61

Post by babyrainbow »

hsod wrote: post #57
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't exactly call Uber a piece of innovation . It's a phone app for hiring taxi drivers from a pool of cheap labor. You want to claim innovation? Let's find the people torching self-driving cars.

Five years ago if I wanted to hire a car to pick me and up and take me somewhere I had to call a taxi company and pray that someone would show up 90 minutes later. Now I hit a button and someone is at my door in ~5 minutes.

Do you think shopping malls are an innovation?

The point is, to be innovative, there should be an innovation. Not just scaling up...

Re: The World in 2076

#62

Post by AnimalMuppet »

mhurron wrote: post #17
kbutler wrote: post #4

How long until this feels dated? Maybe I'm getting too jaded.

None of the things listed will happen by 2076. Unfortunately I will be too dead by 2076 to say I told you so, so I have to say it now. None of this will happen by 2076. If someone finds this comment then, I told you so.

I think this is a very important point. If you want to think wisely about the future, remember this: You're dead.

I'm not trying to be morbid. That's the one thing about the future that you can be sure of. If your approach for thinking about the future doesn't include that, you're not being very wise.

Re: The World in 2076

#63

Post by bluetomcat »

wlll wrote: post #51
bwindels wrote: post #29

I feel it's unfortunate articles like these don't put more emphasis on climate change, and instead still keep up the narrative that we will innovate ourselves out of the problem. There is not reason to believe we will, and I expect society as a whole to already be heavily impacted by climate change by 2076. The more people are talking about the fact that human civilization won't survive 4 degrees of warming in a 100…

This is the thing that has me utterly scared. I've got young daughters who may potentially live to 2100 and the state of the world in the years leading up that point has me incredibly worried. I wish I was thinking more positively about their future rather than wondering where will be the best place to grow food given climate change, how will they protect themselves, or where is the best place to shelter in my house…

Media plays an unforgivable role in convincing people that the world is becoming more unsafe. In fact, cars, equipment and most public places are safer than ever, but the media is able to reach an ever bigger audience with every sensationalist title about an exceptional event.

I come from a formerly communist eastern European country where, before the fall of communism, media was tightly controlled and censored. We had more road fatalities than now with only 1/10 the amount of cars, much more work-related injuries, a significantly worse and lower-tech medical care, political prisoners tortured in God knows what ways. Yet, most people who are old enough to remember it feel nostalgic about that period and constantly say "look at the news nowadays".

Re: The World in 2076

#64

Post by throwaway729 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #58
throwaway729 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your examples are a bit hyper-bolic. First, anti-innovation and anti-technology are two different things. Your parent seems to be referring to innovation in the tech innovation sense. Second, opposing specific companies that market themselves as the epitome of innovation (Uber, AirBnB) is not the same as being genuinely anti-innovation. It's possible to oppose specific (esp. business model!!!) innovations wit…

I don't think anyone, besides maybe a few extreme environmentalists, is opposed to technology in the abstract. All luddism - including the original luddites - are opposed to specific technology that they believe harms them. The original luddites were manual weavers who were opposed to mechanical looms that did their job faster and better than they did. The modern luddites are lazy Marathi auto drivers who are opposed…

> All luddism...

All luddism to date. The article and GP are predicting something new -- a generally anti-technology sentiment.

The post I replied to stated that such a sentiment is already here.

I don't think opposition to Uber or AirBnB demonstrates the sort of general anti-technology or anti-innovation sentiment predicted by the article.

It may very well be the case that this general sentiment arises out of a large confederation of people who have become obsolete for various reasons, who become generally anti-technology due to particular technologies ruining their lives. In fact, I grant you that this is the most probable scenario.

But that sort of confederation doesn't exist in today's world, and there's plenty of opposition to Uber/AirBnB that is not motivated by luddism. Lazy Marathi auto drivers may oppose Uber, but they aren't the only critics. In fact, it's not even clear to me that taxi drivers are the most populous critics of Uber.

Re: The World in 2076

#65

Post by eli_gottlieb »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #59
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't exactly call Uber a piece of innovation . It's a phone app for hiring taxi drivers from a pool of cheap labor. You want to claim innovation? Let's find the people torching self-driving cars.

There is a world of difference between "hiring X from a pool of cheap labor" and what Uber does. ODesk is hiring X from a cheap pool of labor. Uber is push a button and you get where you are going. Fundamentally, Uber is a Walrasian auctioneer that solves the socialist calculation problem within the transportation sector. I consider that to be innovation.

Go ahead and consider, but it's an accounting innovation, not a technological one.

Re: The World in 2076

#66

Post by marssaxman »

cowl wrote: post #53
bwindels wrote: post #29

I feel it's unfortunate articles like these don't put more emphasis on climate change, and instead still keep up the narrative that we will innovate ourselves out of the problem. There is not reason to believe we will, and I expect society as a whole to already be heavily impacted by climate change by 2076. The more people are talking about the fact that human civilization won't survive 4 degrees of warming in a 100…

I feel it's unfortunate that comments like this continue to spread the naive idea that anything but innovation will resolve the climate issue. Human nature is what it is. There is plenty of historic evidence to believe that innovation is our way out. Like we innovated ourselves out of material scarcity during the industrial revolution. Like we innovated ourselves out of the coal Industrial era using other carbon fuel…

Innovation is not magic; it is the product of investment. The time to innovate was 20 years ago; now it's effectively too late. The climate has already changed and the rate of change is not slowing. We will "innovate", all right, by necessity, and ride it out as best we can; but we can't innovate our way back to the climate we had before.

Re: The World in 2076

#67

Post by cowl »

marssaxman wrote: post #66
cowl wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel it's unfortunate that comments like this continue to spread the naive idea that anything but innovation will resolve the climate issue. Human nature is what it is. There is plenty of historic evidence to believe that innovation is our way out. Like we innovated ourselves out of material scarcity during the industrial revolution. Like we innovated ourselves out of the coal Industrial era using other carbon fuel…

Innovation is not magic; it is the product of investment. The time to innovate was 20 years ago; now it's effectively too late. The climate has already changed and the rate of change is not slowing. We will "innovate", all right, by necessity, and ride it out as best we can; but we can't innovate our way back to the climate we had before.

the "too late" death bell has been ringing since antiquity.

Re: The World in 2076

#68

Post by SilasX »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #26
hbt wrote: post #19

The anti-innovation backlash is the most likely thing to happen. Today, politicians are winning the populace by lamenting on unfair trade deals, globalism and foreigners taking jobs. Those jobs are not coming back, if they are, certainly not to humans. We will see a growing class of people who are economically useless. (read Professor Yuval Noah Harari new book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_Deus:_A_Brief_History…

The anti-innovation backlash is here. Shiv Sena, the racist party of Maharashtra, has also been pushing luddism mixed with racism. No Biharis should get an auto driver license, and they want to stop technology (Uber, Ola) from allowing Biharis/etc to compete via other means. http://www.afternoondc.in/city-news/shiv-sena-mns-raise-red-... http://www.newsgram.com/maharashtra-only-marathi-auto-driver... There were even…

As throwaway says, lumping in Airbnb with Luddism is unjustified. The criticism there is they're facilitating the illegal conversion of quiet buildings and neighborhoods into loud tourist party zones stocked with transient randos that haven't been onboarded to the local rules ("hey, don't leave your stuff in the halls").

Acid test: would cities leave Airbnb alone if they were getting all these guests through conventional travel agents? Would they protest this as hard if it were used to get rooms in neighborhoods/buildings zoned for it? Do they equally object to apps that streamline the reporting of antagonistic neighbors, like those who abuse Airbnb?

That doesn't make their criticisms justified (though here I think they are), but it does mean it's not part of anti-technology backlash.

Re: The World in 2076

#69

Post by wlll »

bluetomcat wrote: post #63
wlll wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the thing that has me utterly scared. I've got young daughters who may potentially live to 2100 and the state of the world in the years leading up that point has me incredibly worried. I wish I was thinking more positively about their future rather than wondering where will be the best place to grow food given climate change, how will they protect themselves, or where is the best place to shelter in my house…

Media plays an unforgivable role in convincing people that the world is becoming more unsafe. In fact, cars, equipment and most public places are safer than ever, but the media is able to reach an ever bigger audience with every sensationalist title about an exceptional event. I come from a formerly communist eastern European country where, before the fall of communism, media was tightly controlled and censored. We h…

I'm worried about climate change making food production unviable causing conflict, and the rise of fascism.

Road casualties etc. don't get a look in.

Post reply on HN