Who does the A.I. say will win the election next week?
Hillary Clinton
A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
61–70 of 71 posts
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#621) The AI was just sythesizing answers given by human readers. It didn't do any of its own analysis of the data set.
2) The experiment was published in August, when the regular season was already two thirds completed. The cubs were well ahead of everybody at that point and were favourites to win (although in baseball that doesn't necessarily mean you are going to win in the postseason). Here are the standings at that Date: http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2...
You can see that the 10 playoff teams were ranked 1-5 in each league at that point. So predicting the playoff teams was just "Which 10 teams are leading right now", which they asked humans about.
The AI didn't predict the full post-season, just which two teams would be in the World Series, which happened to be the team everybody thought it would be from one league and the second placed team from the other.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#63What a game. What a series.
Hi and welcome to Hacker News! Please only post comments that add something meaningful to the topic of discussion (a proclaimed artificial intelligence that claims to have predicted this result much earlier).
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#64Nothing about this seems to add up. They claim they made the prediction in early July, but link to a newspaper article dated 4 August that indicates the predictions were made just one day earlier. They picked the team with the best record all season long to win the championship. They got one of the division winners wrong. Just publishing the current favorites from MLB.com's probability page [0] as of 3 August would h…
They tend to publish academic papers about the predictions. This one is obviously too recent to review, but here is an academic paper (IEEE) about their SUPERBOWL PREDICTIONS, complete with formal statistics: http://unu.ai/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Crowds-Vs-Swarms-SH...
By "They tend to publish academic papers" you mean you used an "academic paper" template and uploaded it to your website.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
If anyone is interested, this is known as p-hacking in statistics ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging ), and works in a similar way. For instance, you have a statistical population of one hundred men and one hundred women: you collect as much data as possible about them - as many features as possible, actually - until you find something which happens to be statistically significant for your group (eg. salt…
It would be far more specific - you'd collect all their medical details, their ethnicity, age, etc., and then you end up with: 'Salt consumption can increase the risk of liver consumption for middle-aged males of African descent'
... liver consumption ...
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would be far more specific - you'd collect all their medical details, their ethnicity, age, etc., and then you end up with: 'Salt consumption can increase the risk of liver consumption for middle-aged males of African descent'
... liver consumption ...
its filled with vitamin a.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
If anyone is interested, this is known as p-hacking in statistics ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging ), and works in a similar way. For instance, you have a statistical population of one hundred men and one hundred women: you collect as much data as possible about them - as many features as possible, actually - until you find something which happens to be statistically significant for your group (eg. salt…
It would be far more specific - you'd collect all their medical details, their ethnicity, age, etc., and then you end up with: 'Salt consumption can increase the risk of liver consumption for middle-aged males of African descent'
I think I see these types of click-bait headlines all the time... and come to think of it, they have very small sample sizes.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would be far more specific - you'd collect all their medical details, their ethnicity, age, etc., and then you end up with: 'Salt consumption can increase the risk of liver consumption for middle-aged males of African descent'
... liver consumption ...
I meant liver disease. But I'll leave it this way because it's funnier. And pretty tasty.