Live data from Hacker News

What has happened down here is the winds have changed

andrewgelman.com

61–70 of 187 posts

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#61
It's good that these issues finally get a bit more attention, however I fear that we're still only seeing the tip of the iceberg. There are so many fields of science that don't care about replication at all, work with far too low numbers of subjects and don't bother about issues like publication bias. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the majority of stuff that's done at university is cargo cult science.

And don't get illuded about your own field: Pretty much all of this is also true for computer science when it comes to quantitative research. How often have I seen studies like "we have tested this with 10 users which we divided in two groups".

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#62
> 2011: Daryl Bem publishes his article, “Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect,” in a top journal in psychology. Not too many people thought Bem had discovered ESP but there was a general impression that his work was basically solid, and thus this was presented as a concern for pscyhology research.

> In retrospect, Bem’s paper had huge, obvious multiple comparisons problems—the editor and his four reviewers just didn’t know what to look for—but back in 2011 we weren’t so good at noticing this sort of thing.

I was a postdoc in a Psychology department when this was going on, and "obvious multiple comparisons problems" isn't a good characterization. Any competent psychology researcher in 2011 (a) understood multiple comparisons and looked for them as a matter of course (b) knew there was something wrong with Bem's paper (see the editorial disclaimer).

Here is the main takedown of it: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/1018886/Bem6.pdf

That is some pretty advanced statistics, not just "correct for multiple comparisons".

What was ongoing then, and continues now, is that psychology and social science in general is coming around to the realization that the tools of the past 50 years are flawed, and to correct them, they need to become better statisticians. But it isn't a matter of "take stats 101 noobs", these are people who have been doing statistical analysis routinely for years. I think there is anxiety that to really do things right you need to _primarily be_ a statistician.

So there is some defensiveness in social sciences about this, certainly not helped by the fact that every jackass on the internet whose taken an undergrad math class thinks they know better.

In the end I quit my psych research job to be a software engineer since all the stats hurt my head and I needed something less quantitative to do.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#63
post #59

Good scientists should welcome this challenge with open arms, sunlight all of their data and code in a repository, and show how proper statistically rigorous research is conducted. That's an elevator right to the top of the field. If I wrote code that messed up, I'd patch it. If someone else points out a bug? Even better, now I don't have to find it myself. But I would definitely not feel attacked or nor would I blam…

> sunlight all of their data and code

This is not always possible. For example, if you are working with proprietary subscription-only datasets where the researcher has no redistribution rights.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#64

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." -- Max Planck

If that were true, science would move at a much slower rate.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#66
post #52
post #27

Oh, free speech and criticism is okay as long as it's moderated and appropriate... Well played. The work of psychology researchers influences our LAWS. They influence how I can live my life. It's a very personal thing. I will criticise them however I want and as much as I want until this branch of 'science' has cleaned up its conduct. If your work cannot withstand criticism, it's worthless. Get out of science, Susan…

While I am sympathetic to people concerned with the amount of scientific trash talk online, I have to agree with the basic thesis: Evidence-based policy is important. The alternative is gut-feel based populist wingnuttery. To stand against Trumpism, evidence-based policy needs to be above reproach. The correct way to be above reproach is to be flawless, not to silence informed criticism.

This is the counter-argument to evidence-based policy: http://www.bmj.com/content/327/7429/1459.long

The point being that not everything we know as true shows up in a study.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#67

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." -- Max Planck

A pithy quote, but it does not have to be. There is no reason or law that prevents us from acknowledging our failures in the past and updating our beliefs to the corrected findings of the present. Death is just the minimum bar, the floor, for progress, not the ceiling.

There is a reason: human nature.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#68

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." -- Max Planck

A pithy quote, but it does not have to be. There is no reason or law that prevents us from acknowledging our failures in the past and updating our beliefs to the corrected findings of the present. Death is just the minimum bar, the floor, for progress, not the ceiling.

Planck is describing how it is, not how it should be.

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#69

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." -- Max Planck

A pithy quote, but it does not have to be. There is no reason or law that prevents us from acknowledging our failures in the past and updating our beliefs to the corrected findings of the present. Death is just the minimum bar, the floor, for progress, not the ceiling.

> There is no reason or law that prevents us from acknowledging our failures

I'd argue that there is. That law is Goodhart's law. [0]

As long as there's a benefit to having people think you're right—in terms of credit, money, power, fame, or even just the satisfaction of believing that you've solved a problem—actually being right will tend to take a backseat to appearing right.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Re: What has happened down here is the winds have changed

#70

I was a big fan of "Thinking fast, thinking slow", like pretty much everyone, until the replication crisis came along. Now I see a lot of the work in this field as a sort of scientifically informed stereotyping that might someday end up on par with phrenology, but it's still fun to read and consider as if it were true. It's really awful how pseudo-science can get so far though.

Did it turn out that research in the book is flawed or not reproducible?
Post reply on HN