. If Gordon is right, sagging productivity figures simply reflect . the fact that scientific progress doesn’t have as much impact on . the economy as it once did. Rather than waiting for productivity . growth and wages to rebound of their own accord, Gordon supports . policies designed to expand the size and quality of the labor . force, such as raising the retirement age, letting more . immigrants into the country,…
I read that as in increasing the number of highly qualified immigrants, thus increasing the quality of the workforce.
The Great Productivity Puzzle
61–70 of 123 posts
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could go on, but you're never going to explain how your communication has actually worsened because you are unaware of it. Hell, I could give you a good dozen examples of interesting things that can't be communicated properly over long distance, but I'm never going to prove that here, am I? You're never going to understand how confident or uncertain I am. You're never going to grasp an idea that isn't already wei…
well that's true, I'm a little fishbowled because I work in devops, so my conversations are constrained to technical matters which don't require (if your team is any good) trust in anything but the code you review and accept. I restrict conversations about jobs, raises and things that require convincing to face to face encounters, but those are intermittent and not a daily or even weekly occurrence. since the majorit…
I also find conversations more of a lazy way to communicate. Most just talk and never really think. Forcing someone to validate their idea(s) to the point where they are writing them down helps everyone involved.
Finally, written down helps avoid the circular conversations and keeps others who were not present up to speed. Being able to go off and think and come back to exactly where the written conversation left off is a big win. Contrast this with the often endless meetings where the same things are discussed for a majority of the start of the meeting and at the end 1 extra decision is made.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could go on, but you're never going to explain how your communication has actually worsened because you are unaware of it. Hell, I could give you a good dozen examples of interesting things that can't be communicated properly over long distance, but I'm never going to prove that here, am I? You're never going to understand how confident or uncertain I am. You're never going to grasp an idea that isn't already wei…
well that's true, I'm a little fishbowled because I work in devops, so my conversations are constrained to technical matters which don't require (if your team is any good) trust in anything but the code you review and accept. I restrict conversations about jobs, raises and things that require convincing to face to face encounters, but those are intermittent and not a daily or even weekly occurrence. since the majorit…
To drop a data point - as a developer, there's very little in my job that would be done better by personal meeting that isn't handled better via asynchronous communication. Be it IM or e-mail, or whatever. E-mail preferably, because IMs seem to give people the impression they don't have to think before writing. As for things that do require personal meetings - I'd say some initial architectural discussions, when you really want to be together in front of a large whiteboard. That however could be moved to software too, if someone someday writes a non-utterly-shitty collaboration program.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#64A few rants (mixed in with a few half-baked ideas): 1) Economic progress from the industrial revolution is about quantity. We learned to make a lot more stuff. The industrial revolution is not quite done, but the impact is less and less every decade. We may never match that quantity growth of stuff because we don't even want more stuff, we only want better stuff. And we're getting better stuff and more variety. 2) In…
The people who made Fisher Price toys in East Aurora, NY were made redundant by equally low/moderate skill workers in Mexico and later China. Your undershirt was made in North Carolina until the late 80s, and shifted to a variety of places until it hit the bottom -- Bangladesh.
The IBM people who assembled Power servers in Minnesota were replaced by Mexicans. The Dell folks in North Carolina and Texas were replaced by Mexicans, Taiwanese and Chinese.
What you characterize as low skill work and workers still exists and isn't being automated away to the extent that the average HN commenter would suggest.
I question the value to the consumer as well. The shoes on my feet are made in some mega-factory in Guangdong. They cost more than the shoes I bought a decade ago that were made in Maine, and are of similar quality. IMO there's a lot of middlemen or some sort of self dealing going on -- producing shoes in massive bulk should push prices down, not up.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#65. If Gordon is right, sagging productivity figures simply reflect . the fact that scientific progress doesn’t have as much impact on . the economy as it once did. Rather than waiting for productivity . growth and wages to rebound of their own accord, Gordon supports . policies designed to expand the size and quality of the labor . force, such as raising the retirement age, letting more . immigrants into the country,…
1) more people means more demand for stuff, means more incentive to produce stuff, more competition to sell them stuff and higher economic growth 2) if people want to come here, it's because they think they are not being as productive as they could be where they are now.
Regarding 2), I have no doubt that potential immigrants think they can be more productive in the US than elsewhere! But that doesn't imply that their participation in the US labor pool will boost productivity further still.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read that as in increasing the number of highly qualified immigrants, thus increasing the quality of the workforce.
What's your read on increasing the retirement age, then?
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
1) more people means more demand for stuff, means more incentive to produce stuff, more competition to sell them stuff and higher economic growth 2) if people want to come here, it's because they think they are not being as productive as they could be where they are now.
Regarding 1), more people means more demand for stuff only insofar as those people have money to buy stuff. In any event, you have the causal chain backwards:, increases in productivity allow for the support of a larger population; a larger population does not (by itself) lead to productivity increases. India has over a billion people, yet also much lower productivity than the US, so population alone can't be the who…
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#68This is not a process that creates value in the same way that using energy more intensively, to spin wheels, lift objects, melt iron, or process chemicals, grows value. In past iterations, we've always had a link between energy intensity and industrial growth.
But now we have a huge demand for new designs that reconsider the same processes, using a similar amount or less energy than before. The amount of labor that can go into designing that stuff is similarly huge. But it's a superstar situation - a few people make big breakthroughs by chance. We are "less" productive on average, routine work doesn't reap the benefits, and capital allocation doesn't have the guarantee of power it used to, in a world where tiny software startups are constantly scanning for a new platform lock-in opportunity. The economy stumbles from one speculative bubble to the next, trying to resume a paradigm of the past. It's a very chaotic, disruption-heavy, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately future that we've built for ourselves, and it's made everyone a little more insecure even as it produces its share of new wonders.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#69Productivity increases when you save people time. When a job used to take 2 hours and now it only takes 1, productivity has gone up. I wonder if the reason productivity is going down is that the current cohort of 2010s technology companies may actually have the opposite aim: consuming people's attention and time. Things like social networking, advertising supported businesses, mobile gaming, &c., aren't saving people…
So essentially how do you raise productivity ? Make ridiculous profits. Reducing the time it takes to do something, IF it results in more being done, certainly raises productivity but it isn't the whole story.
Currently the problem seems to be overcapacity pushing down on margins, with the situation being confused by central banks non-printing ("loaning")
between scare quotes because the prospect of those loans getting paid back are certainly not what they should be.
Re: The Great Productivity Puzzle
#70A few rants (mixed in with a few half-baked ideas): 1) Economic progress from the industrial revolution is about quantity. We learned to make a lot more stuff. The industrial revolution is not quite done, but the impact is less and less every decade. We may never match that quantity growth of stuff because we don't even want more stuff, we only want better stuff. And we're getting better stuff and more variety. 2) In…
Look at infant mortality and mortality to 5 years old in 1800 vs 1850 vs 1900 vs 1950 or so. How much is it worth not watching your children die?
The addition of water and sewage into housing had a huge impact. Dramatically reducing the labor required to live and dramatically reducing disease.
Look at life in 1800 vs 1900 and the percentage working on a farm. It was probably an improvement to live in a town or city and not have to get up at dawn and work in a low productivity farm.
Look at how life expectancy shot up. How much is it worth looking at your grandchildren grow up?
Sure, since 2000 we have vastly better internet connected phones and social networks and it isn't well measured. But what wasn't well measured in the past was probably worth more and was more important for people's lives.