Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

aboveavalon.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 269 posts

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#61

Post by refurb »

elchief wrote: post #30
partiallypro wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automotive is a low margin, high liability industry. I think Google is approaching this correctly in staying out of the hardware (for the most part.) Apple developing a full car that has to meet x & y regulation from every single different country could end up being a big disaster. Tesla isn't even profitable and has a cash burn that makes a winter furnace seem tame. I don't see how Apple can escape that reality too.…

Tesla makes 25% margin on their cars.

I find that shocking. They are using new/expensive technology, high quality parts and low volume production methods and they are making a higher margin than a company like BMW or GM who have the benefit of scale and ability to squeeze suppliers?

Not saying your number is wrong, I'm just really surprised.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#62

Post by abalone »

It's a car and it's not a "pivot". The Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV and Watch are all about apply the same philosophy to new product categories and then tightly integrating them. At the core of it is fundamentally rethinking the interface between user and machine.

With cars it makes perfect sense as long as you do one thing first: throw out everything you've read about fully autonomous cars being right around the corner. If instead we're facing a future of semi-autonomous capabilities which still require a human to oversee and guide -- much like the autopilot controls of airplanes -- then there is a massive opportunity to rethink the automobile interface from the ground up around this new hybrid approach.

You can be sure that Apple's car will not just be a Jony Ive designed Tesla. It will involve a rethinking of the user interface. Apple likes to make a 10X difference when entering product categories and that's been the key element. Effective autopilot assistance features can plausibly get us to 10X improvements in safety and convenience.

Apple's functional organization is one of its secret weapons in applying this philosophy consistently across so many consumer categories and creating a halo effect. I would be very surprised if they changed that for computers-with-wheels.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#63

Post by petra »

aetherson wrote: post #52
cageface wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no guarantees that the iPhone will generate anything like the profits of the last several years indefinitely. There are a number of strong headwinds including the end of carrier subsidies, market saturation, a weak global economy, increasingly mature competition at much lower price points etc. I don't think they're in crisis but they do have a real problem on their hands. Of course they have a lot of room t…

Nothing is indefinite. And, basically, I agree with you. If 2015 wasn't the high water mark of the smartphone market, then some near-future year will be. But smartphones are also clearly not going to crash and burn. Even if people don't replace them like clockwork every year or two years, there is going to be a healthy market for iPhones for a long, long time. There are still people without smartphones, there are sti…

I partially agree with your thesis, but:

>> There is just no demand for a car that can support an Apple-in-2015 type valuation

Assuming transportation is on demand and automated, the revenues of that industry will far eclipse the phone industry revenues. Add that with the fact that automated cars are really hard, brand might mean life and death(in the mind of people) and moving people in shared vehicles on-demand has pretty strong network effects - there's a possibility for a bigger business than the iPhone.

But from that to Apple winning that business ? that a low probability bet, so maybe pivot is the wrong word. But Apple can allow itself to try that bet, money is of almost no concern to them

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#64

Post by mulcahey »

I really wonder how they will differentiate themselves from Tesla's offerings. Tesla represents the very cutting edge of innovation in the automotive industry being the leaders in autonomy, EVs, battery production, the chargin network, etc.

I wonder if Apple will partner with Tesla to use their Gigafactory batteries and charging network. If not they would have a lot of ground to make up.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#65

Post by petra »

heifetz wrote: post #14

Apple needs a visionary. Google, Amazon and Facebook all have founders who are visionaries and drive the focus of the company. Tim Cook could be a great CEO, but he is not a visionary and does not drive products. Who is driving the vision at Apple? It's not Jony, I have no idea who is doing that. That is also something you can't do by committee. Apple seems to be really floundering and does not have any great visions…

Apple can find visionaries as it did in the past, when fadell outside of Apple started pitching the idea of the iPod and Apple recruited him and let him manage that division.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#67

Post by darawk »

rixed wrote: post #50
darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

Maybe they are working on a non autonomous car? The car industry is somewhat similar to the phone industry at the time it was dominated by Nokia and telcos: not evolving, slow to integrate new technologies, terrible legacy UIs ... There is a lot of room for improvement outside of autonomy. I can hear the press mocking the development of a"manual " car like it's the 20th century again, and being ridiculed by Apple com…

Ya if I had to guess i'd say that's exactly it. But do we really need an Apple car? What is there really for them to offer in that space? Better UX? Is there enough of a delta there to warrant entering the space?

I grant though that this is a sort of 'unknown unknown'. By definition, the great new things are non-obvious. I may have said the same thing about pre-iphone phones. But I don't really see what they could offer me that would make me want to pay an apple-style premium for a car (other than full autonomy, of course).

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#68

Post by petra »

epistasis wrote: post #12
bitmapbrother wrote: post #4

Apple's not going to pivot. I'm sure they'd like to, but I can't really see what they would pivot too. Instead they'll just throw their hat into the usual next big thing everyone else is chasing - VR / AR and electric cars - of which I don't think they'll have a lot of success in. Their bread and butter will always be the iPhone and they'll ride that wave until it comes crashing to the shore.

If we're going to go on history, it's quite likely that whatever Apple pivots to, lots of people will say "yeah, whatever Apple, that's a tiny market and there are already like four players in there and they're all more serious than you." Then within three years Apple will have taken what seemed not so consequential, completely dominated, expanded the market by several orders of magnitude, and left everybody in their…

This mythic story was true in the past, but with the Apple watch, they didn't introduce something that different from the competition - most of their win there was because of their brand, their loyal customers and the watch being a fashion item.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#70

Post by bendbro »

abalone wrote: post #62

It's a car and it's not a "pivot". The Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV and Watch are all about apply the same philosophy to new product categories and then tightly integrating them. At the core of it is fundamentally rethinking the interface between user and machine. With cars it makes perfect sense as long as you do one thing first: throw out everything you've read about fully autonomous cars being right around th…

I know people have said this before and been very wrong for it, but I just don't think there's much in those constraints to innovate (read Blackberry). Unless you change the only fundamental aspects of owning a car (driving, parking, and maintenance), all you're doing is polishing a turd.

If Apple is just building the car, and fully autonomous transport is out of the picture, then all they can hope to do is make it electric and install all kinds of shiny gizmos inside. Battery tech won't advance on their doing, so we can't expect their "revolutionary" change to involve any actual gain in commuting, but we can expect to be inundated with a lot of beeps and boops. Oh and maybe your Apple watch will unlock the doors.

Post reply on HN