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A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

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Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#61

Post by gjm11 »

cmdli wrote: post #43

From the $1 trillon stated in the article, spread across 300 million people, each person would get around $3000 a year. That honestly doesn't seem like it would help a lot, considering it would replace current welfare systems. The Swiss proposal of around $2600 a month, implemented in the US, would cost nearly $10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible. I don't think the problem with basic income is an id…

If there is enough to implement it with a big tax increase but not without a big tax increase, and if that makes it infeasible ... isn't that exactly an ideological problem?

(For the avoidance of doubt, an ideological problem can be a serious real problem. If a basic income can't be implemented without a tax increase that voters would never tolerate, that's a good reason not to do it. If it can't be implemented without a tax increase that would wreck the economy, that's also a good reason not to do it, but I think that would rightly be called a numbers problem rather than an ideological one.)

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#62

Post by crdoconnor »

k-mcgrady wrote: post #6

>> "But in the U.S., many liberals see it as naive and a distraction from more practical priorities, such as a $15 minimum wage and paid family leave." I can't see how they could believe this. First of all a minimum wage becomes unimportant as you should hypothetically have enough money to support the kind of lifestyle a minimum wage job would provide without working. Secondly, as it's no longer financially critical…

>I can't see how they could believe this. First of all a minimum wage becomes unimportant as you should hypothetically have enough money to support the kind of lifestyle a minimum wage job would provide without working.

It's considered a distraction because it's a political pipe dream that has a very low chance of being implemented.

The reason the left doesn't like it is fourfold:

* The pretext for basic income presumes that we have a lack of spending because we've run out of things to spend money on. This couldn't be further from the truth. American infrastructure is crumbling and yet politicians still want to restrict necessary spending, choking off demand and killing jobs.

* The pretext for basic income also presumes that we have a wide variety of cheap goods that don't need much US labor because of efficient markets and automation. We don't. We have a wide variety of cheap goods not requiring US labor because China intentionally undervalues its currency. China can pull the plug on that at any point and trigger a torrential level of inflation in the US.

* The last time the US faced this problem of high unemployment due to artificially suppressed demand (in the 30s) it was successfully fixed with federal job guarantees that ended up providing useful employment and getting a huge amount of useful infrastructure built that we still use today.

* However much you try to deny it or dress it up, people actually want jobs - for more than just the income.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#63

Post by k-mcgrady »

mseebach wrote: post #37
k-mcgrady wrote: post #6

>> "But in the U.S., many liberals see it as naive and a distraction from more practical priorities, such as a $15 minimum wage and paid family leave." I can't see how they could believe this. First of all a minimum wage becomes unimportant as you should hypothetically have enough money to support the kind of lifestyle a minimum wage job would provide without working. Secondly, as it's no longer financially critical…

The biggest problem with the UBI debate is that few people explicitly name the amounts they imagine. You seem to imply a level near the minimum wage, but that's flat out impossible. The total US tax revenue is around $20k/year/person, so a realistic UBI is upper bounded at perhaps $2-300/month (full time at $15 is about $2,600/month) - and at 20% of total revenue, that would have to replace substantial portions of ex…

I envision it as enough for someone to get by. So not enough for luxury expenditures. Basically food and shelter. I'm also looking at this from the perspective of someone in the UK who doesn't have to think of things like health care and education which changes things quite a bit. I'd say around $800 p/m per person would be plenty if you look at food and rent for a room in a shared apartment. Tax revenue should also stretch much further with a UBI. You could reduce huge inefficiency and lay off the majority of staff involved in welfare programs which would amount to massive savings.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#64

Post by UVB-76 »

T-A wrote: post #49
amelius wrote: post #5

I'm still wondering about one thing: if everybody has a basic income, then who will be doing the dirty jobs like collecting our waste? Will the price for waste collecting go up? And will there then be a kind of economic "inversion", where the intellectual people prefer to work on interesting stuff at the expense of money, while the "non-intellectual" (need a better word here) people will make all the money doing the…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Financial_Fable

This only applies to our global economy if every country were to implement UBI, and with similar amounts.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#65

Post by empressplay »

crdoconnor wrote: post #42
empressplay wrote: post #34

Won't a basic income just increase inflation? Minimum-wage jobs would by necessity then need to pay more, which would then cause the costs of goods and services to go up, which would then make living more expensive, necessitating an increase in the basic income and so forth...? For example, say I'm a landlord. If everyone all of a sudden had an additional "base" income, why wouldn't I increase my rents to absorb at l…

The cost of inflation is spread across the whole economy. The brunt will mainly be borne by those holding large liquid cash reserves and owning loans, not minimum wagers.

I still think that until the real estate question is resolved it's all a moot point. Already-inflated property markets will just become more inflated.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#66

Post by panic »

empressplay wrote: post #48
rlpb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the market rate for dirty jobs goes up, will the basic income be enough, or will I struggle to pay for my waste collection (and everything else) on the basic income alone?

Which is a good point. Ultimately all costs get passed on to the consumer -- so where does it end?

As costs go up, consumers buy less. There's a certain price which maximizes profit: that's where it ends.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#67

Post by yks »

_Understated_ wrote: post #31
amelius wrote: post #5

I'm still wondering about one thing: if everybody has a basic income, then who will be doing the dirty jobs like collecting our waste? Will the price for waste collecting go up? And will there then be a kind of economic "inversion", where the intellectual people prefer to work on interesting stuff at the expense of money, while the "non-intellectual" (need a better word here) people will make all the money doing the…

I haven't read into it too much at the moment as it's still a bit of a pipe-dream just now although it's looking more likely to change but I sit on the fence at this time (with a lean towards "no"). I don't see that happening to be honest but I do see something worse... Won't the price of everything go up for those that don't currently need the welfare system? Is this a sort of stealth tax increase on the middle clas…

I think that is the point, there will be too many people "that can't work" due to tech innovations.

It all makes sense if you think about welfare not as "these slouches are rewarded for the laziness" but as a price you pay so that unemployed people are not forced into violent property expropriation from you.

When large swaths of population don't have an access to money-making jobs, it significantly affects middle class well-being.

Of course you can "get yours" and double down on police and live behind electric fences South Africa style, but that's not pretty.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#68

Post by ianpurton »

cmdli wrote: post #43

From the $1 trillon stated in the article, spread across 300 million people, each person would get around $3000 a year. That honestly doesn't seem like it would help a lot, considering it would replace current welfare systems. The Swiss proposal of around $2600 a month, implemented in the US, would cost nearly $10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible. I don't think the problem with basic income is an id…

Doesn't the US spend that much already on quantitative easing :) ?

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#69

Post by keithnz »

empressplay wrote: post #34

Won't a basic income just increase inflation? Minimum-wage jobs would by necessity then need to pay more, which would then cause the costs of goods and services to go up, which would then make living more expensive, necessitating an increase in the basic income and so forth...? For example, say I'm a landlord. If everyone all of a sudden had an additional "base" income, why wouldn't I increase my rents to absorb at l…

with a UBI, you don't need a minimum wage. Also low end jobs will pay on top of a UBI, so it will be quite attractive if you don't have a lot of skills for higher paying work. Also with a UBI you have to balance it with a tax system that taxes wealth. In new zealand one of the advocates of UBI came up with a calculator for it ( simplified, but gives the idea of some of the levers you need to do it ) http://www.bigkahuna.org.nz/calculator/finance-minister.aspx

If you live in an area where there is a housing shortage, then yes, the market will drive things higher, but then a UBI lets people be a bit more mobile so people may move out of high rent areas more easily, also potentially driving up wages because less people are around to do needed work, but then as everyone gets pushed up, the tax will start to pull things back down. The whole point is income redistribution , especially in a society thats starts getting more and more automated.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#70

Post by crdoconnor »

cmdli wrote: post #43

From the $1 trillon stated in the article, spread across 300 million people, each person would get around $3000 a year. That honestly doesn't seem like it would help a lot, considering it would replace current welfare systems. The Swiss proposal of around $2600 a month, implemented in the US, would cost nearly $10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible. I don't think the problem with basic income is an id…

>$10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible.

There's nothing infeasible about spending $10 trillion a year. The US can quite literally print and spend as much as it likes in dollar terms. The only limiting factor is inflation.

As soon as public spending starts causing ~> 12% inflation year on year you need to start worrying about "can the country afford this?". Not until then. The government certainly wasn't worrying about the total dollar number during the war or the last bank bailout.

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