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Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

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Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#61

Post by Domenic_S »

danjayh wrote: post #53
Domenic_S wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in many areas the median house now costs enough that it's beyond the reach of the median person I don't see it. Maybe bubbly areas like SJ will correct a bit, but at the end of the day real estate is a supply/demand calculation. YoY% increases don't look like they did in the last bubble. The more people who want to live somewhere -- whether renters or buyers -- the higher the prices go, until sales start dropping o…

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/daily-c... EDIT: I am specifically referring to the "Price to Income" chart in my comment below, not the one that shows up by default. Sorry for the confusion. -- Uncheck everything but the 'US' graph. Different data sources give different ratios, but they all show that it's still well above historical norms & headed up. Some data sources say that it's already appr…

Without numbers it's hard to tell, but it looks to me like the curve is even gentler than 99-03. It's almost always going to be going up and to the right until the population starts shrinking.

People are just stubborn and think that if they can't afford the type of house they want in the type of neighborhood they want in the city they want, then housing must be in a bubble and out of reach.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#62

Post by MicroBerto »

JavaScriptrr wrote: post #9

The last couple of years, everytime someone would ask the cliché 'is there a bubble?' Question to a VC, they all waved it away. The questions were legit because of the insane valuations that have been thrown around. How often in History have companies like MagicLeap for example, got to billion+ valuation before ever launching a product. Evernote is a legit business, yes but same story. Blown up by investors. The bubb…

The unicorn valuation bubble seems to be cracking, sure, but what does that mean for the average tech employee? Average citizen?

I'm concerned but still not convinced this will shock the rest of the economy, at least not all on its own.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#63

Post by mmanfrin »

danjayh wrote: post #45
pfarnsworth wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money under Bush went to the Iraq war, which benefited the "big guys", not the small guys. The small guys have yet to ever benefit from anything.

I was referring specifically to the cheap debt. Yes, the much of the spent money under Bush went to the Iraq war, and under Obama much of it went to 'stimulus', and both items hurt us all (through inefficient use of resources) while benefiting large enterprises.

TARP was passed under Bush.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#64

Post by kornish »

shriram_b02 wrote: post #25
dpflan wrote: post #4

Has any HNer participated in such a secondary sale? I think it could be informative to describe the experience, whom you dealt with, how a price was agreed upon, how your company discussed secondary sales, etc.

EquityZen ( https://equityzen.com ) has conducted several transactions in private companies, including many Unicorns, and charges only one fee (and no escrow fee).

(full disclosure: Shriram is a cofounder of EquityZen).

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#65

Post by danjayh »

Domenic_S wrote: post #61
danjayh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/daily-c... EDIT: I am specifically referring to the "Price to Income" chart in my comment below, not the one that shows up by default. Sorry for the confusion. -- Uncheck everything but the 'US' graph. Different data sources give different ratios, but they all show that it's still well above historical norms & headed up. Some data sources say that it's already appr…

Without numbers it's hard to tell, but it looks to me like the curve is even gentler than 99-03. It's almost always going to be going up and to the right until the population starts shrinking. People are just stubborn and think that if they can't afford the type of house they want in the type of neighborhood they want in the city they want, then housing must be in a bubble and out of reach.

Assuming continuous inflation, the absolute price of housing will always increase. However, affordability decreases as the ratio of housing price : income increases. There is a limit above which a vast swath of the population can't afford houses, and somewhere just beneath that limit lies another at which the price of housing collapses. That's assuming that the effect of speculation never becomes large enough to outweigh a collapse of real demand.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#66

Post by atom-morgan »

jluxenberg wrote: post #14
mmanfrin wrote: post #2

Semi related question: One has to be an accredited (i.e. wealthy) investor to invest in startups, but this does not apply to employees exercising options. Does that mean that employees who do not meet the wealth requirements to be accredited are only ever able to sell ownership, and only to accredited investors?

Side note: You're considered an "accredited investor" if you made $200k/year in each of the prior two years and expect a similar income in the current year. https://www.investor.gov/news-alerts/investor-bulletins/inve... So, not necessarily just "wealthy" individuals.

Investors are just like everyone else. They don't want competition.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#67

Post by djhn »

mavelikara wrote: post #50
shostack wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really interesting, thanks for sharing. Does this generally piss off the employer? I wonder if the employee faced any sort of retaliation or anything from this.

> Does this generally piss off the employer? I wonder if the employee faced any sort of retaliation or anything from this. No, it should not piss off any employer! The equity that is offered to you to as part of your employment is remuneration for your efforts. The employer should not be upset at you for wanting to convert that to cash. It is true that the employer might not want their stock to go to outside parties.…

I completely agree with you, but this isn't mutually exclusive with facing retaliation (in terms of internal politics, for instance.)

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#68

Post by hirsin »

mmanfrin wrote: post #30
st3v3r wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You live in downtown Manhattan.

$200k in Manhattan puts you above 84% of people living in Manhattan. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/mar/...

But puts you in the top 1.5% nationwide. So, 10x worse off percentage wise, I'd believe that doesn't feel wealthy or even rich. Bad-stats-wise, between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7 people you meet would earn more, compared to 1 in 65 or so elsewhere.

Re: Secondary shops flooded with unicorn sellers

#70

Post by saalweachter »

mmanfrin wrote: post #63
danjayh wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring specifically to the cheap debt. Yes, the much of the spent money under Bush went to the Iraq war, and under Obama much of it went to 'stimulus', and both items hurt us all (through inefficient use of resources) while benefiting large enterprises.

TARP was passed under Bush.

Obama did have the $831 billion ARRA, but that pretty much was done after about two years.
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