There was an article some time back saying CEOs are basically psychopaths, then this software should not work that well.
Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
61–66 of 66 posts
Re: Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
#62If the founder and CEO sells all his stocks 20+% of "his" public company like some did the other Friday, you definitely can guess his emotion (eg NEWR). Then the other day, when the company stock drops to half the value, you can guess his emotion and different emotions from surprised stock owners.
Re: Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem with pure research in this field is that your decisions will influence the market. How much you invest will influence your returns and how successful you are will influence the behaviour of others in the future.
Which is actually why you shouldn't invest based on this algorithm if you care about the research. I think, ideally, you should: 1) Generate a few hypothesis algorithms, including one that invests at random. 2) Publish a cryptographic commitment for each algorithm. 3) Never actually invest any money. Alternatively: let someone else invest your money for you, without knowledge of your hypotheses. 4) Run your algorithm…
This only works under the assumption that your activity would have had absolutely no impact on the market. The real world is complex and interconnected, and everyone is monitoring each other closely.
Re: Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem with pure research in this field is that your decisions will influence the market. How much you invest will influence your returns and how successful you are will influence the behaviour of others in the future.
Which is actually why you shouldn't invest based on this algorithm if you care about the research. I think, ideally, you should: 1) Generate a few hypothesis algorithms, including one that invests at random. 2) Publish a cryptographic commitment for each algorithm. 3) Never actually invest any money. Alternatively: let someone else invest your money for you, without knowledge of your hypotheses. 4) Run your algorithm…
I believe that the post you were responding to was noting that you can't do pure research, because the results of the trading strategy actually being executed will influence the market. The pure research cannot determine how trading with that strategy will cause the market to react. Over time, the strategy will change the market more and more (if it's successful) which will change it's efficacy.
Re: Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
#65Create a hedge fund and run your proprietary algorithm. If you succeed over the long term and generate a consistent market premium for a given risk exposure, you've got a story. If you don't do this, you've got an unproven claim like many others in history, the vast majority of which were proven false when put into practice.
You don't need to run a hedge fund to perform research. What a horrible mindset you have.
> What a horrible mindset you have.
This sort of rudeness is not allowed on Hacker News. Your comment would be a fine one with just the first sentence.
Re: Software “detects CEO emotions, predicts financial performance”
#66"He's a narcissistic sociopath hoping no one exposes him and his web of lies"
"He's a narcissistic sociopath hoping no one exposes him and his web of lies"
"He's a narcissistic sociopath hoping no one exposes him and his web of lies"
"She's a narcissistic sociopath hoping no one exposes her and his web of lies"
"He's a narcissistic sociopath hoping no one exposes him and his web of lies"