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Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

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Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#61

Post by criley2 »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #35
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

Disagree entirely.

Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a dozen other cheap but profitable game makers. Box was just overvalued for what it is.

On the flip side, every time someone takes an Uber or rents a room on AirBnb, they pay the company.

As in, those companies accept money for every transaction and profit on them.

Twitter, box, groupon, yelp don't do that. And Dropbox doesn't and they aren't publicly traded and if they did sell stock it would probably be overvalued and shrink over time like Box.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#62

Post by edgyswingset »

darawk wrote: post #49
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

I'd say Zynga has a pretty clear business model.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#63

Post by PhasmaFelis »

smegel wrote: post #22
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Yahoo: from $11 in 2011 to $50 in 2014 to $30 in 2016 I am actually surprised Yahoo is worth three times as much today as it was in 2011.

I realized that I'm not sure what Yahoo actually does these days. So I looked at their website, and...I still have no idea. Their homepage is set up like a sketchy news aggregator. Wikipedia says they do a list of things (mail, video sharing, online mapping...) that Google and others obviously completely dominate.

As a side effect, I'm recalling the days when Yahoo was a directory of websites, and getting nostalgic for the days when people actually had websites.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#65

Post by interesting_att »

VeilEm wrote: post #12
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

What point are you making? Perhaps it isn't too hard to look at examples of tech companies that have done well since IPO. This is quintessential cherry picking. The market in general has been downward recently but Atlassian and Godaddy are holding their own for example: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TEAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDDY

The stocks you mentioned barely get any buzz in tech media (TechCrunch) or HN. The stocks that OP mentioned get a significant number of mentions here. A number of unicorns are dying, experiencing significant criticism (Theranos), doing not-so-well (Square, Zenefits), or exiting negative returns for investors (Gilt Groupe)

The point is the companies that seem to be getting the most hype (young, 'disruptive' companies) don't seem to be doing well as IPO companies. This is an issue for the public investors (who are often pension funds, average investors, etc) and employees.

This seems to be a clear indictment of tech media, who are more interested in hyping up stories than really digging into a company's fundamentals. The only losers are common people in this scenario.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#66

Post by mattzito »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #44
winter_blue wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I suppose the take-away is: avoid putting your savings in tech stock?

You should never be putting any savings in stocks except index funds, unless you're gambling.

Or have some sort of legal insider information. (Not that that's the situation for most people, but it's worth rounding out the discussion)

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#67

Post by adventured »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #55
adventured wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact they're not valued at zero. It's the Alibaba stake that is discounted, as all cash and assets on a balance sheet are by investors. That's trivially easy to prove by looking at Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Berkshire Hathaway, or Apple's financials. If Yahoo were floated on the public market, with $4.8 billion in sales and $200 +/- million in profit, the valuation they would receive is not zero. Proof? See: the…

In reality, these are just are opinions you and I have. We'll find out in the next 18 months what the fate (and the value) of Yahoo is.

It's not an opinion that $4.8 billion in sales and one of the largest Web properties, is worth more than zero. That's easily backed up by comps such as AOL, Yahoo's nearly 20 years of being public along with how the markets treated it, and how they were valued prior to the Alibaba stake becoming valuable (hint: they never received a negative valuation, even in the absolute worst of times post dotcom bubble when their business was falling apart rapidly).

Fair value on stand-alone Yahoo is a lot closer to $5 to $10 billion than not. Verizon just paid $4.4 billion for AOL, which has a fraction of the business that Yahoo does.

I could claim that Microsoft being worth more than $1 is merely an opinion. Does that mean Microsoft's market value is subject to such whims? No, there's a vast historical basis to go on, and a well understood approach for valuing such companies and their businesses. The opinion of Microsoft being only worth $1 is wrong, and easily proven so. The same is true regarding Yahoo's core business being worthless, and for the same conceptual reasons. The only valid room for opinion in the matter, is in how much it's worth. Anything else has no historical example to back it up (there is not a single example in modern history of a public corporation of Yahoo's sales size, with a positive balance sheet and earnings, that isn't collapsing due to some scandal, that is worth less than zero; not one example exists).

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#68

Post by PopsiclePete »

SEJeff wrote: post #52
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

This is just the market reflecting reality. Most of the "unicorns" aren't actually worth the billion or so dollars their valuations are at. They don't generate enough of really anything that is worth the silly valuations they get. This is why free markets are a good thing. They eventually correct themselves.

Exactly. I honestly don't see the problem. Some VC lost a bunch of money? Oh well!

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#69

Post by Dwolb »

vanattab wrote: post #13
theseatoms wrote: post #2

This doesn't bode well for other publicly traded B corporations, unfortunately. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_corporation

Can you expand on why this a bad sign for B Corps more so then C Corps? Honest question. Before reading the link I did not know the difference between B and C.

A simple explanation is B-corps can have a charter which is at odds with the interests of shareholders while C-corps are fully aligned with 'maximizing shareholder value'

e.g. "I've created a B-corp, named Betsy, which has the distinct mission of making it viable for more people to choose craftsmanship as a career. I cannot be sued for adhering to my charter in good faith so one thing I can offer all sellers is an insurance plan even if this move has a net negative impact on profit."

This can be contrasted to a C-corp in which its officers could technically be sued by acting in ways which are value or profit-destroying for the firm.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#70

Post by ken47 »

jamisteven wrote: post #58
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

I highly doubt this will be happening to the likes of Uber or AirBNB anytime soon, for one Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet and relentless in his efforts, much like Jobs in his prime. AirBNB will face more challenges but the amount of monetary funds it collects in transactions and fee's it is collecting will keep it at the top for a long long time. Anytime a company puts money back into the h…

"Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet"

That is a strong statement. Care to justify?

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