Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely • Hacker News Board

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#61

Post by marssaxman » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 7:01 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #59

VLM wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More specifically the article is proposing that an uber-for-suburbs is a mathematical non-starter and the comments against that conclusion are primarily non sequiturs along the lines of "I live in an urban area and uber and mass transit work great for me". Cool. Rock on. But that has nothing at all to do with the article's business plan, or the research in the article or my own mathematical model that came to the sam…

I'd just add that Uber being fairly successful in a lot of areas in spite of the fact that taxis were already a thing has probably led a lot of people to take away a (somewhat) incorrect lesson--namely that app-ing the taxi experience fundamentally changes the economics. In fact, Uber has, for example, had a lot less relative impact in Manhattan which already has lots of taxis than in other locales. So the more corre…

Yes! Here in Seattle, so far as I can tell, Uber succeeded mightily not because people particularly loved Uber, but because everybody hated the taxicab system.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#62

Post by argo12 » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 7:11 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #36

cpursley wrote: post #31

Enough with the fancy vans and apps. Russia has already solved this problem: http://www.st-petersburg-essentialguide.com/marshrutka.html They're private, cheap and ubiquitous and make getting around anywhere in Russian cities easy. Without these, buses from the burbs can't work.

And car-pooling has a long history although my sense is that it's perhaps less common than it used to be--probably because work hours tend to be more variable than in the past. While apps and so forth can reduce transaction friction enough to create markets where they didn't previously exist, I reserve the right to be suspicious of claims that an app suddenly makes a service viable that wasn't before.

There is also a huge cultural element to this. The element of trust is a huge problem in most countries and in my opinion this will make it hard for carpooling to scale as a business idea.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#63

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 7:11 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #36

cpursley wrote: post #31

Enough with the fancy vans and apps. Russia has already solved this problem: http://www.st-petersburg-essentialguide.com/marshrutka.html They're private, cheap and ubiquitous and make getting around anywhere in Russian cities easy. Without these, buses from the burbs can't work.

And car-pooling has a long history although my sense is that it's perhaps less common than it used to be--probably because work hours tend to be more variable than in the past. While apps and so forth can reduce transaction friction enough to create markets where they didn't previously exist, I reserve the right to be suspicious of claims that an app suddenly makes a service viable that wasn't before.

[deleted]

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#64

Post by allcentury » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 7:31 PM UTC

Only one comment in here about slugline... shocked.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#65

Post by skinnymuch » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 7:36 PM UTC

jasonlotito wrote: post #51

HappyTypist wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point to point transport may be necessary for living in general, but a personal car certainly isn't. A more realistic comparison would be selling your car, cancelling your insurance, repurposing your garage, and comparing it with pooled ridesharing. I'm not sure why you think car pooling has to take a lot of time. Services like uberPOOL guarantee you will only be matched with someone going a very similar route -- oth…

Just curious as to which suburb you live in that supports uber? As I live in a suburb of Philly, and uber doesn't exist around here.

Really? Interesting. Which direction from Philly is your suburb? I've been to a decent number of cities and their suburbs and usually found Uber or Lyft to be available in the past year.

Locally, living in either Jersey or Connecticut, Uber/Lyft have been available for a while now wherever Ive been in those states. I do remember when taking an Uber or Lyft from a suburb 40 minutes outside of NYC in NJ, the driver complained that he had two tickets from Philly airport.

Are Philly and perhaps the surrounding areas in PA just more strict still with laws? I know Uber made a big push a year or two ago to be available in all of Jersey. And since Philly or say, Hershey Park, can be pretty close to a portion of NJ, I assumed it was available there in mass too.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#66

Post by CPLX » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 8:37 PM UTC

krakensden wrote: post #37

CPLX wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have those in NYC too, they are called dollar vans and they are ubiquitous, albeit apparently invisible to the upwardly mobile urban white people that are typically noticed by startups and the media.

Also illegal, no?

Not necessarily. There are many legitimate TLC licensed dollar van companies, though there are many more that are not registered/legal as well.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#67

Post by ido » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 9:11 PM UTC

cpursley wrote: post #31

Enough with the fancy vans and apps. Russia has already solved this problem: http://www.st-petersburg-essentialguide.com/marshrutka.html They're private, cheap and ubiquitous and make getting around anywhere in Russian cities easy. Without these, buses from the burbs can't work.

I believe these & comparable services are ubiquitous all over the middle east, latin america & africa.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#68

Post by ido » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 9:19 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #47

akgerber wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that difficult— if such a person travels travel, they go to major cities or resorts or places where driving isn't necessary, and if they want to go hiking, etc., they take public transit or go with friends. Downtown-oriented companies (e.g. startups or banks) often do business with other urban companies, too. Versus oft-suburban companies (e.g hardware companies.) often do business with other oft-suburban co…

Sure. Someone just out of school working for some urban startup with a circle of friends (at least some of whom own cars) who also live in a relatively dense city with decent public transportation can often get away without driving for a while. They're probably not going on a lot of sales calls, they can carpool with their urban friends to go hiking or to help them move, and they can just choose not to vacation in ar…

This is simply not the case in a lot of places. My wife & I are 31 and 32 years old respectively and neither of us has a driver's license. My mother in law (68 years old) has a driver's license and haven't driven even once since taking the exam.

Of all my friends in Berlin & Vienna I can think of only a couple that own a car & I'm pretty sure most don't have a driver's license either.

This is not unusual for a large % of the population of western europe and the east asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc).

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#69

Post by cpursley » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 9:32 PM UTC

Grue3 wrote: post #55

cpursley wrote: post #31

Enough with the fancy vans and apps. Russia has already solved this problem: http://www.st-petersburg-essentialguide.com/marshrutka.html They're private, cheap and ubiquitous and make getting around anywhere in Russian cities easy. Without these, buses from the burbs can't work.

Marshrutki don't really run in the suburbs. Even if they do, these "suburbs" are high-rise developments with 10+ story apartment buildings. Not comparable to American one family/house low-density suburb at all.

To clarify, I've taken the metro from Moscow city center, and from the metro station exit - taken the Marshrutka to a "suburban" high-rise on the south-side.

In the US, I propose basically the opposite. You drive to a parking area from your home, get on a bus (or metro if available) that delivers you to the city. But after departing the bus/train is the problem. From that departure point, there's few options to move you to disparate parts of the city (i.e., your actual office location) without hailing an expensive taxi/uber or walking an hour through the city. If something like Marshrutki were available at that point in the city, it would be a game-changer and make the suburban city buses much more feasible.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#70

Post by cameldrv » Tue, Nov 17, 2015, 10:30 PM UTC

Besides all the great points others have made, the origin and destination of the shared riders don't need to be the same, they just have to share some common segment. Furthermore, although there is time lost waiting for the other rider to be picked up or dropped off, there is also time gained by not having to find parking and then walk from the car to your destination, since the shared car can drop you off right out front.