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Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

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Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#591

Ageism is alive and well in our industry. People need to learn the difference between fluid intelligence and crystalized intelligence. People need to hear that startup success is maximal when the founders are older, not younger. VCs chasing youth are statistics deniers.

> People need to hear that startup success is maximal when the founders are older, not younger. VCs chasing youth are statistics deniers.

For building a successful business, older founders are more likely to succeed. They understand the business and see something that everybody else is getting wrong that they can correct and make money on. They will grind at it and have a profitable business for decades.

This is anathema to VCs.

VC's want a short term lottery ticket. They want your business to go big or go home. They would rather see your business fail quickly than grind profitably for a decade. Youth feeds into this in two ways. First, youth can align with the fad of the moment in the hopes of running a cashout while the iron is hot. Second, youth can be bullied into doing stupid things that a more experienced person will flat out tell you are stupid and refuse to do them.

This is the standard misalignment with founders and VCs.

The interesting question is whether experienced people can leverage AI to construct actual new businesses rather than just AI bandwagoning. The fundamental problem is that most successful businesses have to deal with customer service, and AI doesn't do jack to make that better.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#592
post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

On one of my very first jobs in around 2000 I got paired with a much more experienced software engineer. He’d been a pro since the early 70s. I was stoked to learn from him.

On like my fourth day he said “now I’m going to teach you the thing that helped me the most in my career…” I waited, ready for the received wisdom. And he said “always number your punch cards so if you drop them they will be easy to put back into order”. I was upset. We were long past the point where punch cards were in use. And then he said “I said what would help _me_ the most, not what would help _you_. Software is always changing”.

I’ve thought about that a lot lately.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#593
post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

LLMs also can “understand things and apply their ability to formulate solutions”. There is nothing that will inherently limit AI from doing all knowledge work (and all physical work once robotics is good enough).

Of course developers could just move up the “next level of abstraction” and become managers of agents who write the code, but eventually AI becomes a better manager of agents than even the best humans, at which point there is no contribution a human can make that an AI model or system of models couldn’t do better.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#594
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.

I was the same opinion till Claude code was relased. its a lot closer now.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#595
post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the time is spent figuring what the right thing to do is, not writing the implementation. Sometimes the process of writing the implementation surfaces new considerations about what the right thing is, but still, producing text to feed to a compiler is not the bulk of the work of a software engineer. It is to unearth requirements and turn them into repeatable software.

AI is pretty good at figuring out what the right thing to do is.

AI is decent at solving problems that lots of people already solved a long time ago.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#596
post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

This is a bit of glib answer. Most of the time is spent coding which encompasses typing, retyping, and retyping again. It also includes banging your head against the wall while trying to get one of your rewrites to work against and under-documented API. OP's formulation makes SWE sound like a purely noble enterprise like mathematics. It's more like an oil rig worker banging on pieces of metal with large hammers to ge…

This was my experience as a junior back in 2019.

The actual problem solving was trivial but I would spend days trying to work my way around some Qt work or guess the magic Cmake incantation.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#597
post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

This is a bit of glib answer. Most of the time is spent coding which encompasses typing, retyping, and retyping again. It also includes banging your head against the wall while trying to get one of your rewrites to work against and under-documented API. OP's formulation makes SWE sound like a purely noble enterprise like mathematics. It's more like an oil rig worker banging on pieces of metal with large hammers to ge…

[flagged]

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.

> Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago. There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. Since around the end of 2025 and models like Opus 4.6, the SOTA has gotten good enough to work agentically on all sorts of dev tasks with pretty good degrees of success (harnesses and how you use them still matters…

What's their balance, revenue - AI expenses? Using the real token costs, not the subsidized costs.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your own comment in my timeline is 7 years out of date. GPT-2 talked pretty, that was its whole thing. If you are trying to claim there's no difference between 5.5 and 2 you are delusional (hallucinating?).

I think I was fairly clear, I said that I think it is hubris to think what we have created is anything even slightly like human intelligence. It talks very pretty (a lot of work has gone into this aspect in particular), and it does demonstrate the extent to which, as individuals, most of us do not have especially unique thoughts nor problems to solve. It exposes how quickly humans jump to anthropomorphizing pretty mu…

You do you. I stick to the simplest reasonable definitions. From my perspective we are already in AGI, just the intelligence isn't quite on human level yet across the board.

I am yet to see anyone saying it's just like human, so it looks like you are mostly hallucinating that too.

You didn't address my point on GPT-2 vs 5.5. Your only relevant claim is that 5.5 talks very pretty vs 2 just pretty I assume. Well, you have to be blind to claim this is the main difference.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#600
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But when a senior can do the job of 6 coworkers, what do you suppose will happen to the coworkers? In farming, those who were replaced by tractors did not keep their jobs. What is different now?

There are jobs with limited work, and jobs with unlimited work. Since your farming land is limited, after the job is done, there is no more work. For software projects, there is always more work to do. It's an arms race between competitors. Imagine you fire developers to maintain your speed, and your competitor keeps their people to go faster. Good luck to you!

There will always be more work that could be done, certainly.

What’s uncertain, however, is whether the work that remains to be done is valuable enough that it makes sense to pay someone an engineer’s salary to do it.

In your analogy, your competitors who keep their people could just as easily end up bankrupt.

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